Texas/MX Obs And Discussion Thread.

[Ed Lizard]

Drought, not winter fun, seems in the cards...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX1230 PM CDT FRI DEC 3 2010 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

...SYNOPSIS...

OCTOBER 2010 WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAIN RETURNED IN NOVEMBER WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS CLOSER TOTHE COAST AND AROUND GALVESTON BAY. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL DURING NOVEMBER...MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED LESS THAN THE NORMAL VALUE EXPECTED DURING THE MONTH. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENED NORTHOF A COLUMBUS TO LIVINGSTON LINE DUE TO THE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THAT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DURINGOCTOBER...MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DID NOT RECEIVE A DROP OF RAIN. NOVEMBER STARTED OUT A BIT BETTER WITH RAIN COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION ON NOVEMBER 2ND. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING NOVEMBER OCCURRED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY WITH A TOTAL OF 7.66 INCHES. THE DRIEST LOCATION INSOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING NOVEMBER WAS IN MADISONVILLE WITH A PALTRY 0.70 INCHES OF RAIN. MADISONVILLE HAS RECEIVED ONLY 3.67 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE AUGUST 1ST. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...GALVESTON RECEIVED 4.10 INCHES OF RAIN ON NOVEMBER 2ND.A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OFWEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS LA NINA PHASE IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGER EVENTS ON RECORD. OTHER YEARS WITH STRONG LA NINA SIGNALS ARE 1916...1917...1955...1975 AND 1999. BELOW ARE TABLES WITH THE RAIN FALL DURING THE WINTER MONTHS FOR THOSE LA NINA EPISODES: ...

http://www.srh.noaa....ought_statement

[bubba hotep]

On February 14th into the 15th, 1895, Houston recieved a 20 in. "blizzard". It was a coastal low situation that acted more like a nor'easter

so you know, it can happen. Once every thousand of years...

what was the final total for ya? how unusual is that kind of storm for your area?

The 1895 storm brought over a foot of snow to my area and then in 1899 just to the southwest of us Mardi Gras was delayed because parade routes had to be cleared of snow!

[wxmx]

no, you do not

the funny thing about that storm is that the heaviest totals were actually east of here. Beaumont ended up picking up about 30 inches of snow...

I won't be seeing anything like that in my lifetime, most likely.

The coastal Xmas 04 storm was like a mini version of this... Victoria saw over a foot of snow from that.

The year before that Monterrey saw it's greatest snowfall, during a Niña, nonetheless...over 30in of snow, and very late in the season, at least according to our standards this far south, Feb 24th, 1894....Mexico as a whole saw it's greatest snowfall during January 1967...50% of the country had snow, 20" here. Apart from that 2 greats, none have surpassed half a foot... and we have a warmer climate than Hou.

[wxmx]

Going mid/long range (8-15 days) looks like the only thing that will keep us from torching is the gigantic -NAO that'll keep the E coast in the icebox. I'm just imagining what will happen when that goes away.

[Srain]

Going mid/long range (8-15 days) looks like the only thing that will keep us from torching is the gigantic -NAO that'll keep the E coast in the icebox. I'm just imagining what will happen when that goes away.

Break out the shorts and t-shirts. I may even open the swimming pool...

[msp]

never like seeing this

THE 384 HOUR GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY

OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. RAINFALL DEFICITS WILL

GROW AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF WEEKS.

[TXWXCHX]

A burn ban has been put in place here; we're hoping for the best regarding fire weather, but preparing for the worst. Cool/dry/breezy combined with lots of flammable fuels in the pastures =

[msp]

A burn ban has been put in place here; we're hoping for the best regarding fire weather, but preparing for the worst. Cool/dry/breezy combined with lots of flammable fuels in the pastures =

yeah, the burn ban is a bummer. student bonfire was canceled this year because of it.

at least temps should begin to moderate by late in the week. close to 70F and sunny is going to make for an awfully difficult time trying to study for finals.

[Srain]

Looks chilly across the Lone Star State this evening. Winds have decoupled and radiational cooling should be optimal...

[msp]

hit 36F here this morning. hgx bumped up highs for later this week by quite a bit. mid-70s again?

[Ed Lizard]

Except for a sprinkle Tuesday night, the GFS out a week is dry, dry, dry locally. Not having much sun helps, but I'll probably break out the sprinkler for the sake of the foundation.

[Srain]

One thing of note is that the -NAO collapse is not anymore in the long range with the Euro and GFS (582dm heights over Iceland in the Euro FTW)...plus there's some cross polar flow with ridging north of AK... I would give a little credence to this models and say that if we get a little help from the Pacific we are now in a slightly enhanced risk of an old fashioned artic express around mid month.

Perhaps pushed back a bit, but wow what a signal...

[Flexo]

Perhaps pushed back a bit, but wow what a signal...

That NAO isn't going to help us much this winter. The only thing it's doing right now is keeping us from torching... Look west, my friend

Actually, it may bring Florida some record cold next week, but the crappy Pacific will keep the coldest air to the east.

[Srain]

It's cooling down a lot quicker than I expected this evening...

2010.12.06 2353 UTC

Wind Calm

Visibility 10 mile(s)

Sky conditions clear

Temperature 41.0 F (5.0 C)

Dew Point 30.9 F (-0.6 C)

Relative Humidity 67%

Pressure (altimeter) 30.35 in. Hg (1027 hPa)

Pressure tendency 0.03 inches (0.9 hPa) lower than three hours ago

ob KDWH 062353Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 05/M01 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP278 T00501006 10128 20050 56009

[wxmx]

That NAO isn't going to help us much this winter. The only thing it's doing right now is keeping us from torching... Look west, my friend

Actually, it may bring Florida some record cold next week, but the crappy Pacific will keep the coldest air to the east.

Yep, agree, the Pacific is more important for us south...and it's horrible, and forecasted to remain horrible. The -AO and -NAO will keep us from taking out the shorts and t-shirts, with all the glancing blows we'll get. A horrid Pacific most of the time can't stop a 1050+mb high from at least giving us some below ave. temps... but usually aren't noteworthy, specially without any moisture around.

[Srain]

That NAO isn't going to help us much this winter. The only thing it's doing right now is keeping us from torching... Look west, my friend

Actually, it may bring Florida some record cold next week, but the crappy Pacific will keep the coldest air to the east.

Oh, I am... See the Congrats Sierras thread...

Yep, agree, the Pacific is more important for us south...and it's horrible, and forecasted to remain horrible. The -AO and -NAO will keep us from taking out the shorts and t-shirts, with all the glancing blows we'll get. A horrid Pacific most of the time can't stop a 1050+mb high from at least giving us some below ave. temps... but usually aren't noteworthy, specially without any moisture around.

I think we all expected a dry regime, but the below average temps have been more than noteworthy, IMO. My concern is we are heading toward a real wild fire issue and fast. Just sayin...

[msp]

Oh, I am... See the Congrats Sierras thread...

I think we all expected a dry regime, but the below average temps have been more than noteworthy, IMO. My concern is we are heading toward a real wild fire issue and fast. Just sayin...

this is my biggest concern.

hgx's drought statement was discussing this.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GROUND FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY AND 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE PERCENTAGES
HAVE BECOME VERY DRY AGAIN. 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT WEST OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE LINE AND LESS THAN 25
PERCENT WEST OF A COLUMBUS TO TRINITY LINE. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
IS GENERALLY GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
1000 HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE LINE. AS OF DECEMBER 2 2010...THE FIVE DAY
AVERAGE FIRE DANGER MAP SHOWED A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE INCREASED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. THE VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN (INCREASE)
OVER THE NEXT 14 DAYS. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES
(12/02/2010):

         600-700       500-600       400-500

         HOUSTON       POLK          HARRIS
         TRINITY       SAN JACINTO   CHAMBERS
         MADISON       LIBERTY       BRAZORIA
         WALKER        MONTGOMERY    WHARTON
         GRIMES        WALLER        MATAGORDA
         BRAZOS        FORT BEND     JACKSON
         BURLESON
         WASHINGTON
         AUSTIN

also worth noting that the water levels in the reservoirs are falling too. everything but lakes houston and livingston already have or are close to falling below 90% capacity.

[msp]

zippo precip of any kind southeast of a CLL-IAH line on the 0z gfs... and really nothing for east tx too.

just another faux cold snap with highs in the low 50s maybe before a warm up again.

[Srain]

Coastal areas may well see some light rain. We will see just how far N into the Houston area this can make it...along and S of the HYW 59 corridor appears the most likely areas to see any chance of rainfall...

HPC QPF Discussion:

...SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD FM THE CNTRL ROCKIES..

THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LIMITED MSTR AVBLTY AND THEREFORE EXPECT THE

SWATH OF PCPN ASOCTD WITH THE DIGGING PROCESS FROM THE CNTRL

PLAINS EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL BE VRY LGT. HOWEVER BY THE 2ND

HALF OF THE PD...THERE WILL BE A SHORT PD WHEN A LLVL MSTR FETCH

FM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE AVBL TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD

AND HEAVIER SHWRS INVOF OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA. MODEL GUIDANCE IN

GNRL AGREEMENT ON THE LATTER SCENARIO AND OPTED FOR A BLEND OF

GUIDANCE HERE.

12Z WRF

[wxmx]

Oh, I am... See the Congrats Sierras thread...

I think we all expected a dry regime, but the below average temps have been more than noteworthy, IMO. My concern is we are heading toward a real wild fire issue and fast. Just sayin...

You think? Lately they haven't been so...average temps... My point is that the next few cold snaps might bring us down to below normal, but nothing exciting, probably not more than -3/-4F on average next 10 days... and dry. Latest model runs show a change in the Pacific regime, bringing some higher height N of AK. That pattern taps on very cold air masses usually, though the energy still left near the Canadian coast and Pacific NW also usually undercuts this higher heights and prevents a full south head on vodka cold... but with such anomalous high latitude blocking, there's not much option for real cold to come but south.

Latest temps.

AO, NAO and EPO going to the tank past day 10

[somethingfunny]

NWS Shreveport is considering issuing a Winter Weather Advisory tonight.....since the computers crashed last night, we won't get really detailed discussions until the afternoon ones come out in another hour or so.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

930 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WILL BE MADE AS ALL THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

BIG DECISION TODAY WILL BE ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF

THE AREA DUE TO THE MODELS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK OF THE

SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY

HIGHER POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTH AND

EAST AREAS...SEE MAP ON HOMEPAGE FOR AREAS.

WILL HAVE COMPLETE PACKAGE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

[somethingfunny]

FWD gave it no mention in the morning discussion, but did post this:

In a La Nina, I'm willing to chase flurries in Paris.

[msp]

should we go back to the storm thread for the neTX flurries tonight? i suggest doing so--event threads are always nice to have for the sake of having records of it.

60/26 here. really dry out. kind of a crummy day.

[msp]

unfortunately, air temp never dropped below 45F last night. had light rain for a little while, but nothing measurable.

70F saturday?

[Srain]

A total bust on temps today. My high was forecast to be 56, yet with cloud cover and N winds it never got above 47. Had some light rain last night. 70 appears doable on Saturday before the front pushes through.

[msp]

A total bust on temps today. My high was forecast to be 56, yet with cloud cover and N winds it never got above 47. Had some light rain last night. 70 appears doable on Saturday before the front pushes through.

really?

we hit at least 53F here, though we did get sunshine breaking through in the last hour or two.

[Srain]

We had the heaviest frost of the season so far this morning with a low of 28 in NW Harris County. About 8 hour at or below freezing as well. Now we'll start the warming trend until Saturday afternoon when the next push of colder air arrives. If guidance is correct after the weekend front, a nice warming trend may be ahead for next week. We will see.

[wxmx]

Big time high latitude blocking. NAO and AO are going to the tank, but the pesky GOA low isn't going anywhere. This kind of pattern usually builds big artic highs that are undercut by the Polar Jet close to the Northern Plains and only gradually sips cold air to the south. So unless this low gets retrograded to the Aleutians, a pattern similar to what has been the last couple of weeks will persist... only a bit colder thanks to climo and the ridiculously high heights near the pole...but dry.

But here's some good news. Close to Xmas there might be some relaxation of the rPNA pattern, with a -EPO pattern...and probably some help from a weaklish MJO wave that might bring the STJ to life. The -NAO is forecasted to become west based, while the Aleutian high is shown in some models to migrate north and east, promoting the -EPO pattern. So, if the GOA low allows it, we might end the month with a bang... at least that's my rather narrow window of opportunity in the medium range. Also, I see low probabilities of any kind of torch for the month.

[Srain]

Big time high latitude blocking. NAO and AO are going to the tank, but the pesky GOA low isn't going anywhere. This kind of pattern usually builds big artic highs that are undercut by the Polar Jet close to the Northern Plains and only gradually sips cold air to the south. So unless this low gets retrograded to the Aleutians, a pattern similar to what has been the last couple of weeks will persist... only a bit colder thanks to climo and the ridiculously high heights near the pole...but dry.

But here's some good news. Close to Xmas there might be some relaxation of the rPNA pattern, with a -EPO pattern...and probably some help from a weaklish MJO wave that might bring the STJ to life. The -NAO is forecasted to become west based, while the Aleutian high is shown in some models to migrate north and east, promoting the -EPO pattern. So, if the GOA low allows it, we might end the month with a bang... at least that's my rather narrow window of opportunity in the medium range. Also, I see low probabilities of any kind of torch for the month.

[Flexo]

Big time high latitude blocking. NAO and AO are going to the tank, but the pesky GOA low isn't going anywhere. This kind of pattern usually builds big artic highs that are undercut by the Polar Jet close to the Northern Plains and only gradually sips cold air to the south. So unless this low gets retrograded to the Aleutians, a pattern similar to what has been the last couple of weeks will persist... only a bit colder thanks to climo and the ridiculously high heights near the pole...but dry.

But here's some good news. Close to Xmas there might be some relaxation of the rPNA pattern, with a -EPO pattern...and probably some help from a weaklish MJO wave that might bring the STJ to life. The -NAO is forecasted to become west based, while the Aleutian high is shown in some models to migrate north and east, promoting the -EPO pattern. So, if the GOA low allows it, we might end the month with a bang... at least that's my rather narrow window of opportunity in the medium range. Also, I see low probabilities of any kind of torch for the month.

What you are describing seems to be a bit like what the 18z GFS shows in the long run, I think...

The past few runs of the GFS and Euro have had some major blocking and large high pressures building across Northern Canada. If we could just get the Pacific to relax, as you say...