Texas/MX Obs And Discussion Thread.

[wxmx]

No phase of the S/W in the Pac...it's just too slow and it's left behind of the longwave NE trough... too bad, serious ridging up there. I seriously doubt there's any winter storm in TX with this one.

[bubba hotep]

Fiona redux... I think it was in the 9-12 day range that the Euro went off the reservation and started calling for a Cat 5 in the Gulf only to later submit to the weak out to sea solution that the GFS was showing.

[Srain]

Looks like a freeze tonight across SE TX. I should see a 29 to 30, perhaps.

[msp]

Looks like a freeze tonight across SE TX. I should see a 29 to 30, perhaps.

looks like about the same here. good setup too with clear skies and completely calm winds. i like the 28F-30F range.

wish it would get cold enough for long enough to see a frozen puddle.

[Srain]

I have a fairly heavy frost this morning and temp is setting at 31. It seems the models flip flopped last night regarding early next week. Imagine that!

[Srain]

The Euro is such a tease...

[Donwx]

It defiantly is here we go again... Atleast we can dream.

[wxmx]

The Euro is such a tease...

06z isn't that far tease-wise, at least wrt cold...just in total fantasyland 14+days...I only mention it because I have never seen such humongous artic highs in a GFS map over NA....1083mb over Greenland, 1067mb over the Canadian artic archipelago and 1051mb entering the CONUS

[Srain]

06z isn't that far tease-wise, at least wrt cold...just in total fantasyland 14+days...I only mention it because I have never seen such humongous artic highs in a GFS map over NA....1083mb over Greenland, 1067mb over the Canadian artic archipelago and 1051mb entering the CONUS

I was kidding with 57 in the local board yesterday about the +PNA hint and the euro suggestion of a complete collapse of the -NAO. I saw the 06Z GFS and filed it in the seriously WTH file. Who knows, an 82/83 or even 89 reduex.

[wxmx]

One thing of note is that the -NAO collapse is not anymore in the long range with the Euro and GFS (582dm heights over Iceland in the Euro FTW)...plus there's some cross polar flow with ridging north of AK... I would give a little credence to this models and say that if we get a little help from the Pacific we are now in a slightly enhanced risk of an old fashioned artic express around mid month.

[bubba hotep]

I was kidding with 57 in the local board yesterday about the +PNA hint and the euro suggestion of a complete collapse of the -NAO. I saw the 06Z GFS and filed it in the seriously WTH file. Who knows, an 82/83 or even 89 reduex.

For us somewhat younger posters that have not lived in Texas very long, what are we talking about in regards to 82/83 or 89?

As far as the Euro, I am a little more comfortable with that projected scenario than I was with the last storm it was teasing us with. NWS is still giving us a slight glimmer of hope for some flurries around here on Monday night:

"NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SNOW AND

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A DUSTING."

[Srain]

For us somewhat younger posters that have not lived in Texas very long, what are we talking about in regards to 82/83 or 89?

As far as the Euro, I am a little more comfortable with that projected scenario than I was with the last storm it was teasing us with. NWS is still giving us a slight glimmer of hope for some flurries around here on Monday night:

"NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SNOW AND

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A DUSTING."

82/83 Arctic outbreak was a major pipe bursting freeze event in SE TX. IIRC, we had lows near the 6-8 degree range and killed off virtually all the troipicals down to Brownsville. 89 was almost as cold but not as long lasting. Edit to add from the old HGX Home page...

• DECEMBER OF 1989 WAS THE COLDEST MONTH IN HISTORY FOR GALVESTON... HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION. DECEMBER OF 1983 WAS THE SECOND COLDEST MONTH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS
• ON DECEMBER 22 1989...HOUSTON RECEIVED 1.7 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE GALVESTON RECEIVED AN INCH; IT WAS THE LAST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR EACH LOCATION
• COLDEST DECEMBER TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED ACROSS THE AREA. ON DECEMBER 23 1989...COLLEGE STATION HAD A LOW OF 2 DEGREES...HOUSTON HAD A LOW OF 7 DEGREES AND GALVESTON HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES
• IN 1983...HOUSTON REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHILE COLLEGE STATION HAD MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS

[wxmx]

82/83 Arctic outbreak was a major pipe bursting freeze event in SE TX. IIRC, we had lows near the 6-8 degree range and killed off virtually all the troipicals down to Brownsville. 89 was almost as cold but not as long lasting. Edit to add from the old HGX Home page...

• DECEMBER OF 1989 WAS THE COLDEST MONTH IN HISTORY FOR GALVESTON... HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION. DECEMBER OF 1983 WAS THE SECOND COLDEST MONTH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS
• ON DECEMBER 22 1989...HOUSTON RECEIVED 1.7 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE GALVESTON RECEIVED AN INCH; IT WAS THE LAST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR EACH LOCATION
• COLDEST DECEMBER TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED ACROSS THE AREA. ON DECEMBER 23 1989...COLLEGE STATION HAD A LOW OF 2 DEGREES...HOUSTON HAD A LOW OF 7 DEGREES AND GALVESTON HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES
• IN 1983...HOUSTON REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHILE COLLEGE STATION HAD MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS

Lows here were in the lower teens...the lowest ever since. I was living in Tampico at the time... 32F in 1983 and 29F in 1989... haven't broken the freezing treshold since then.

[Srain]

[Srain]

Well, there is always some hope that the Canadian is on to something beside an illegal drug since Sarwx's thread ginxed our chances...

[msp]

i'm learning to like the warmth this late.

looks like one more day of mid-70s mañana and then the cooldown. we may get to rattle off four consecutive days in the 50s.

[msp]

0z gfs op says the d10 cold outbreak slides down east of us; glancing blow of cool temps here.

still looking for any rain chances at all...

[Flexo]

I want last winter

[msp]

I want last winter

[Flexo]

probably not this year...

[Flexo]

One year ago:

[/url]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

503 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH

TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AT THIS TIME AND THESE WILL BE THE HIGHEST

TEMPS OF THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE

30S. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING

BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF BRAZOS AND BURLESON MAY SKIP THIS

PHASE OF PRECIP. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO

CENTRAL TEXAS THE AFTERNOON THE PROFILES ACROSS SETX SUPPORT RAINS

ENDING AND SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 1 PM FOR AREAS

WEST OF HIGHWAY 59. AFTER FOCUSING ON THE 00Z RUNS HAVE EXPANDED

THE WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH TO INCLUDE HOUSTON AND MADISON

COUNTIES. SOME THINGS OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY BANDS

OF SNOW SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MAINLY THE

CENTRAL ZONES. HAVE RAISED THE SNOW AMOUNTS TO WIDESPREAD 1-2" AND

ISOLATED 3 TO 4" BUT IF THE BANDS PERSIST THE COUNTIES IN THE

WARNING EAST OF 45 COULD SEE GREATER AMOUNTS. THE WARM GROUND WILL

CERTAINLY HELP TO MELT SNOW THAT FALLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT

THE STRONG CAA AND MELTING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIDGES AND

ELEVATED ROADS ICING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS

BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON

TAP AND COMBINED WITH THE COLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE WIND

CHILL INDEX READINGS OF 20-25 DEGREES WILL RULE FROM NOON THROUGH

9-10 AM SATURDAY SO DRESS WARMLY. THE SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN

END BY 6 TO 9 PM AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST. THE SNOW COVER AND

CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES

ALONG AND NORTH OF 59 IN THE 21-25 DEGREE RANGE BY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CREEP UP SLOWLY IN THE MORNING WITH

MOST OF HEATING GOING INTO MELTING THE SNOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON

TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 40S...BUT CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC

TEMPS IS NOT VERY HIGH FOR SATURDAY.

Today...A chance of snow early in the morning. Rain likely in the morning. Snow in the late morning and afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Colder. Highs 42 to 44 this morning with temperatures falling into the upper 30s by noon then steady or slowly falling in the afternoon. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the morning increasing to near 100 percent in the afternoon.

Tonight...Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow early in the evening...then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Colder. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

1017 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO

8 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING

FRIDAY...AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. TOTAL

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4

INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN

PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE

COAST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND NOT CHANGE TO

SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY LOWER

ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THERE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED

TO END ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. SOME ROADWAYS...

ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ICY

FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD

TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S FRIDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

:(

[Flexo]

[msp]

so depressing seeing that and knowing the low tonight will be 57F

[Flexo]

so depressing seeing that and knowing the low tonight will be 57F

lol

The event actually underperformed a bit, as most models were showing the potential for up to half a foot across a wide area. I think areas SW of Houston, like the lands of Sugar Land and Pearland saw up to four inches, but on average about an inch of snow fell across most areas. The NW side was kind of the screw zone, since only a quick snow band moved through with nothing accumulating. There was so much virga throughout the morning... It was just a bit more drier and warmer on the surface than models had predicted, and that really made the difference. I was talking with a met from HGX the other day that said had things just been a hair more moist with just a simple drop of temperature a few degrees, there could have been a widepsread blanket of upwards of 6 or more inches of snow across the area... It was that close

Even at IAH, the temp never fell below freezing until after the event was over:

Still, you can't really complain about not get enough snow down here considering... well, it's not supposed to snow anyway. Plus, it was our earliest recorded snow ever on record, and you have to respect that (the previous record was actually the year before on the 10th). I saw about an inch of snow here in Kingwood for the event, and I was damn happy about it.

[Flexo]

Still would've been the bee's knees had these higher totals verified:

Again, I was still happy about how things played out

[Flexo]

msp is wondering why some crazy Texan is going crazy about an inch of snow one year ago today

because we went from 1994 to 2008 without measurable snow in the Houston area. <---- That's why

and to have measurable snow for two years in a row (also a record) was the elk's knees

pics from my parent's house from the 09 event:

some of it was still on the ground in the morning, lol

I've got some pics from my old apartment during the Dec 10th event in 2008. We'll save those for the birthday date.

[msp]

hmm. i love snow on palm trees. nothing looks quite that out of place.

college station only got a trace, unfortunately. our big day was the feb. 23rd storm... lots of great videos of campus that day on youtube. from my viewing, kids here obviously don't have sufficient experience to make a proper snowman.

but to be honest, i'm still more used to this:

[Flexo]

On February 14th into the 15th, 1895, Houston recieved a 20 in. "blizzard". It was a coastal low situation that acted more like a nor'easter

so you know, it can happen. Once every thousand of years...

what was the final total for ya? how unusual is that kind of storm for your area?

[msp]

On February 14th into the 15th, 1895, Houston recieved a 20 in. "blizzard". It was a coastal low situation that acted more like a nor'easter

so you know, it can happen. Once every thousand of years...

what was the final total for ya? how unusual is that kind of storm for your area?

it underperformed like just about every other storm. we wound up with only around a foot, which isn't all that rare for the area. we maybe get a 12"er every other year or so. we did better a few years prior when we managed back to back storms totaling over 30"

i'm trying to recall if i've seen info about that houston snowstorm before and i can't seem to remember ever reading about it. it doesn't seem that often that you get much of a strong low at all in the winter in the nw GoM.

[Flexo]

i'm trying to recall if i've seen info about that houston snowstorm before and i can't seem to remember ever reading about it. it doesn't seem that often that you get much of a strong low at all in the winter in the nw GoM.

no, you do not

the funny thing about that storm is that the heaviest totals were actually east of here. Beaumont ended up picking up about 30 inches of snow...

I won't be seeing anything like that in my lifetime, most likely.

The coastal Xmas 04 storm was like a mini version of this... Victoria saw over a foot of snow from that.