bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 After that, it looks like winter is over for the Deep South. I really hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I live a mere minutes from Cowboy Stadium and we got over 5 inches of snow. Right now it is starting to snow again, rather moderately big flakes. Looks like another chance of snow during the Super Bowl Game? Temperatures this weekend are going to be colder than anyone forecasted due to the heavier snowfall received. NWS made a point about thermal profiles this weekend in the latest update. And yes, in reference to the above, another major winter storm possible midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I have seen that movie... The ending was rather anticlimatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I have seen that movie... The ending was rather anticlimatic Meh, I need a break after a month of this mess. I'll rest today and gear up tomorrow for the next round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I will check my AccuWx Euro PPV, as Steve's PSU e-Wall maps have a very ice stormy feel to them... Verbatim- not quite. Precip and cold don't quite match up at IAH. But close enough to stay interested. And verbatim Dallas is really close to another happy winter event Wednesday/Thursday. Most precip falls before temps reach freezing, but .09 falls during six hours when temps surface and 850 are barely above freezing and drop to well below freezing, and another 0.06 inches falls in the 6 hours after surface is below freezing, 850 is -5.5º and 1000-500 mb thickness is 537 dm, and only gets better by the end of the six hours. But one of those thin dense Arctic airmasses move faster than global models can resolve situation, and Steve's e-Wall Euro above looks very interesting. And as also posted above, the general situation seems supported by the operational GFS and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I live a mere minutes from Cowboy Stadium and we got over 5 inches of snow. Right now it is starting to snow again, rather moderately big flakes. Looks like another chance of snow during the Super Bowl Game? Temperatures this weekend are going to be colder than anyone forecasted due to the heavier snowfall received. NWS made a point about thermal profiles this weekend in the latest update. And yes, in reference to the above, another major winter storm possible midweek. Been snowing here on and off all morning with those nice big flakes this storm just refuses to throw in the towel. Lots of post about the next threats but I haven't yet mustard up the energy to start perusing the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My friend from Dallas just wrote this to me: "Yes, I am. I went with some friends last night to the NFL Experience Super Bowl festivities at the Dallas Convention Center. It ran from 9 p.m. to midnight. We thought we'd be fine because the weather people were saying it wouldn't start snowing until about 3 a.m. Well, it actually started at about 11:30. We went outside when we left there and walked around in it and took some pictures. It was really quite a sight as I had never been downtown in the snow before, and it was really coming down hard. We then drove back to my friends' place, and then I drove home. It took a while since we couldn't go more than about 15 mph. But, yeah, the snow is still falling as I write this, and it looks great outside. They predicted yesterday two to three inches at the most, and we've already had half a foot. Needless to say, schools are closed for the fourth straight day, so I am home again. " 4 days in a row with school cancelled (his high school he teaches) for weather--never in my entire tenure at Univ. of Grand Forks did I ever see a weather day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 HGX afternoon snip: THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DEVELOPING 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VAST TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THINK A FASTER SOLUTION IS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AIRMASS...AND LEANED TOWARD AN EARLY WEDNESDAY FROPA SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SE TX STILL EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP DEVELOPING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY OVER OUR NRN ZONES...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE ALL THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS FRONT. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -6C OVER THE AREA. A HARD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ah, Congress Avenue at First Street ,,, looking north on an icy Friday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z gfs doesn't look too bad for a shot at snow over parts of central and north texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z gfs doesn't look too bad for a shot at snow over parts of central and north texas But it magically stalls that front just N of Houston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wall_cloud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 My friend from Dallas just wrote this to me: "Yes, I am. I went with some friends last night to the NFL Experience Super Bowl festivities at the Dallas Convention Center. It ran from 9 p.m. to midnight. We thought we'd be fine because the weather people were saying it wouldn't start snowing until about 3 a.m. Well, it actually started at about 11:30. We went outside when we left there and walked around in it and took some pictures. It was really quite a sight as I had never been downtown in the snow before, and it was really coming down hard. We then drove back to my friends' place, and then I drove home. It took a while since we couldn't go more than about 15 mph. But, yeah, the snow is still falling as I write this, and it looks great outside. They predicted yesterday two to three inches at the most, and we've already had half a foot. Needless to say, schools are closed for the fourth straight day, so I am home again. " 4 days in a row with school cancelled (his high school he teaches) for weather--never in my entire tenure at Univ. of Grand Forks did I ever see a weather day they have more than 2 snow plows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 they have more than 2 snow plows. I was surprised to see most interstates here in the metroplex (and many larger roads in Dallas) appeared to be plowed this evening. I heard TxDOT brought in 80 snow plows to the area, I guess I know where they ended up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Verbatim, looking at AccuWx PPV raw numbers, GFS is such a near miss on another ice storm, it being a global and shallow cold air and all, it is predicting another ice event in HOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The 50ºF day the Euro is predicting Tuesday for Dallas ruins the chance for snow on snow on snow. Phase change involved between the 6 hour time steps, but looks like ballpark 2 inches from the model for Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 648 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011 ...FEBRUARY BEGINS ON A FRIGID NOTE... UNLESS YOU LIVE IN A CAVE OR AN IGLOO...YOU ARE PROBABLY AWARE THAT THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF FEBRUARY HAVE BEEN VERY COLD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF HOUSTON... HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT...COLLEGE STATION AND GALVESTON HAVE ALL AVERAGED ALMOST 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE RECORDED FIVE CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED IN FEBRUARY SINCE 1989. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN BRUTALLY COLD WITH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS A FEW DAYS AGO. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH THE COLDEST AVERAGE HIGH...LOW AND AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY (THROUGH THE 4TH) FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES: HOUSTON AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 36.2 1985 22.2 1951 30.8 1985 38.5 1996 24.0 2011 32.1 1951 42.0 1951 25.2 1985 33.0 1996 42.8 1905 27.5 1996 33.8 2011 43.5 2011 29.5 1917 39.2 1916 HOUSTON HOBBY AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 36.0 1996 20.2 1951 30.9 1951 39.0 1985 27.0 2011 33.1 1996 41.5 1951 28.2 1996 34.2 1985 44.2 2011 29.5 1985 35.6 2011 47.0 1978 32.0 1966 42.0 1980 COLLEGE STATION AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 32.5 1985 15.8 1951 27.0 1985 35.0 1996 21.2 2011 29.4 1996 42.0 2011 21.8 1985 29.5 1951 42.8 1951 23.8 1996 31.6 2011 42.8 1905 26.0 1918 37.3 1916 GALVESTON AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 38.0 1985 26.8 1951 34.0 1985 39.2 1996 28.5 2011 34.2 1951 41.8 1951 30.0 1985 35.0 1996 42.0 2011 30.8 1996 35.2 2011 45.8 1978 34.2 1917 42.2 1905 EACH OF THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR 2ND COLDEST AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF THE MONTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S. DON`T LET THE COLD START TO THE MONTH FOOL YOU. BACK IN 1996...THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF FEBRUARY WERE COLD BUT AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILT OVER TEXAS ON THE 21ST...22ND AND 23RD WITH COLLEGE STATION RECORDING A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES ON THE 21ST AND HOUSTON RECORDING A RECORD HIGH OF 90 ON THE 22ND. AHHHH WEATHER...YOU JUST NEVER KNOW. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 EACH OF THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR 2ND COLDEST AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF THE MONTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S. DON`T LET THE COLD START TO THE MONTH FOOL YOU. BACK IN 1996...THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF FEBRUARY WERE COLD BUT AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILT OVER TEXAS ON THE 21ST...22ND AND 23RD WITH COLLEGE STATION RECORDING A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES ON THE 21ST AND HOUSTON RECORDING A RECORD HIGH OF 90 ON THE 22ND. AHHHH WEATHER...YOU JUST NEVER KNOW. Yes, but with a second strong cold shot coming, one anomalous warm event like described in 1996 will not be enough this time to offset the cold anomalies experienced through mid-month. There is nothing in the long range modelling to indicate warming of this magnitude either. So, point is Febrary is likely to be below normal, at least at DFW regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yes, but with a second strong cold shot coming, one anomalous warm event like described in 1996 will not be enough this time to offset the cold anomalies experienced through mid-month. There is nothing in the long range modelling to indicate warming of this magnitude either. So, point is Febrary is likely to be below normal, at least at DFW regardless. There does appear to be another cold shot on the horizon near the 15th, +/- a day or two. With that said, we are nearing the time frame when sensible weather will begin to warm. Although March is known for some interesting events and even brief flirts of wintry weather is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Icicles hanging on my house this morning. Ok, now I'm ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 There does appear to be another cold shot on the horizon near the 15th, +/- a day or two. With that said, we are nearing the time frame when sensible weather will begin to warm. Although March is known for some interesting events and even brief flirts of wintry weather is not out of the question. I was just doing my forecast for the week for DFW and looking over the forecast of other forecasters for this week, the warmest day is set to be Tuesday with high in the low 50s, this is still below normal for this time of year for DFW. That means with the second cold shot we have solid below normal days through next weekend. It is going to take something incredible just to pull us up to neutral for the month, and I honestly don't see that in the cards. We are currently, as of yesterday, sitting at 24.9 below normal. I think the potential exists for one of the coldest, if not the coldest, February on record at DFW. As I have stated before, if February comes in below normal, the entire winter at DFW will be below normal and many long-range forecasts for this are are going to bust. This month's best analog is probably February of 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nice shot of your snow cover, DFWWeather. I suspect you wont loose too much during our brief warm up early this week...inversion layer ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nice shot of your snow cover, DFWWeather. I suspect you wont loose too much during our brief warm up early this week...inversion layer ftw... From personal experience, snow melts fast in DFW. I think the halfway to the Equinox sun angles in a Southern US state helps, and the ~50 degree day Tuesday will be the coup de grace for most of the snow pack. Maybe shaded locations will survive. Just personal experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 From personal experience, snow melts fast in DFW. I think the halfway to the Equinox sun angles in a Southern US state helps, and the ~50 degree day Tuesday will be the coup de grace for most of the snow pack. Maybe shaded locations will survive. Just personal experience. There will be low clouds with the inversion layer. Those 50's progged will likely bust big time. I suspect there will some light additional snow tomorrow. Early indications are much heavier totals are ahead for Tuesday night/Wednesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 There will be low clouds with the inversion layer. Those 50's progged will likely bust big time. I suspect there will some light additional snow tomorrow. Early indications are much heavier totals are ahead for Tuesday night/Wednesday as well. Snow on snow on snow, I can't remember that ever happening up there, if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Unofficial winter results so far: Almost a FOOT of snow , thunder and heavy sleet event (didn't measure but maybe 0.5" to 1"), and a couple of mornings of freezing drizzle / fog This has made the transition from NOVA to Texas pretty smooth! Now lets see if we can squeeze out another 1" tomorrow before what could maybe be the Big One on Tuesday night / Wed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 For those of you who don't normally venture over the the main board, there is a Super Bowl Snow bet thread if you would like to get in on the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS verbatim, looking at the AccuWx PPV raw text, DFW version of Armageddon, about four inches of snow over a quarter inch of ice. But not until Tuesday night and Wednesday. Plus any snow that can survive the brief thaw... A dusting before the Super Bowl. 2 meter temps above freezing, normally bad for accumulations with such light snow, but should be a fresh dusting on pre-existing snow pack. NAM similar, a touch colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wall_cloud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Some Winter Weather Summaries from TX NWS offices for this past week: NWS Amarillo NWS Lubbock NWS Midland NWS San Antonio NWS Brownsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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