msp Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 only got to 24F here this morning. oh, and thank you, mexico! http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110202/ts_alt_afp/mexicousweatherstorm_20110202234748 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z NAM is a step back in the right direction and the 12z GFS is not as moist as 6z but appears to rotate the heavier qpf NW a bit (in reference to the DFW area and not the whole system). Maybe a solid 1" snow for places east of Irving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 000 FXUS64 KFWD 031631 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1031 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011 .UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND HAVE ONLY UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN CWA BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WILL ALSO CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND HARD FREEZE WARNING AS TEMPS ARE NOW WARMER THAN CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ABNORMALLY COLD THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL MONITORING DATA COMING IN FROM SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS AND REFINING AS NECESSARY AS WELL AS MAKING ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION. DUNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just for the record, DFW came in a 2.0 above normal for December, 1.3 below normal for January, and currently, to date, February is sitting at 24.8 below normal. This makes an average for the winter thus far 12 BELOW normal at DFW. While, I'm sure there will be some modification to this number, I doubt very seriously by the time February ends, especially with more well below normal cold expected next week, that the month will be above normal. I would be surprised if it came in at neutral given the anomalies presented thus far. Therefore, we are likely to have a BELOW normal winter when all said and done. What a way to run a mild or much above normal winter as many forecasters were calling for for this area. I smell some huge busts coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Things continue to improve ever so slightly for the eastern half of the DFW area. 18z NAM Clown map from www.wxcaster.com: A few highlights from the afternoon discussion: 000 FXUS64 KFWD 032137 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 337 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011 CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS AND ADVISORIES...AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THERE. SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR NORTH TEXAS...SO SMALL AMOUNTS OF LIQUID QPF WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE FLUFFY POWDERY TYPE OF SNOW EXPECTED. WE HAVE GONE CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO RESULTING IN AREAS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE METROPLEX. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE SREF AND WRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH CLUSTER BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING AND EXPAND IT NORTH A ROW OF COUNTIES. WHILE THERE COULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX...WILL FORGO ISSUING AN ADVISORY NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POPS IN THOSE AREAS. THIS SNOW MAY ACTUALLY PROVIDE SOME TRACTION IN AREAS WHERE ICE REMAINS ON THE ROAD. ONE CONCERN REGARDING NEWEST MODEL DATA ARRIVING...LATEST RUN OF THE NAM AND SOME SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LIFT CLOSE TO A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH SETS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THESE SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER A LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 cold wrecking havoc on campus. heaters not working well, and burst pipes have cut off hot water to some dorms. the combo of the two is nasty. we have sidewalks around my dorm roped off due to water coming up from all the ruptures and flooding the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 cold wrecking havoc on campus. heaters not working well, and burst pipes have cut off hot water to some dorms. the combo of the two is nasty. we have sidewalks around my dorm roped off due to water coming up from all the ruptures and flooding the area. That sucks but at least y'all should score a couple of inches over night. Should have gone to LSU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Has to be a zoo in the Valley. Matamoros and Brownsville have both had several hours of freezing drizzle. Matamoros is down to 28ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 cold wrecking havoc on campus. heaters not working well, and burst pipes have cut off hot water to some dorms. the combo of the two is nasty. we have sidewalks around my dorm roped off due to water coming up from all the ruptures and flooding the area. Geez Loooweeez it's freekin' frigid. 24 degrees, winds 10 MPH N, pressure 30.41 and rising. No emergency callouts today so far, because all of our usual suspects are in their houses - it's too cold to go out and wreck a car or roll a tractor. Everyone needs to be prepared for more rolling blackouts, seeing as how Mexico is saying they can't send extra power, because there isn't any - it's too cold for THEM. http://www.chron.com...ss/7411539.html We've been feeding a woodstove and livestock all day in an attempt to keep everyone warm - in reply, the chickens sent me eggs. FROZEN EGGS. They burst in their shells... I'm sorry MSP, you've been brutally introduced to a non-Newtonian. Lone Star weather factoid; Cold is colder in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 cold wrecking havoc on campus. heaters not working well, and burst pipes have cut off hot water to some dorms. the combo of the two is nasty. we have sidewalks around my dorm roped off due to water coming up from all the ruptures and flooding the area. Ridiculous. The repairs will cost more than simply providing sufficient insulation to those pipes would have. While ya'll are shivering in the smelly dorms, someone should trace back who the architect and project sup were for the affected buildings and pass it on to the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looks like the Waco area will get the goodies tonight... Aviation... /00z tafs/ Concerns...snow with MVFR ceilings. Upper low now approaching The Trans-Pecos will track toward North Texas overnight. In advance of the system...mid-level lift will increase this evening...mainly south of I-20. Depth of upglide will increase...eventually lowering ceilings to MVFR...as light snow is finally able to penetrate the surface layer. Waco is currently within prognosticated swath of 2- to 3-inch snowfall. Metropolitan taf sites are expected to be within the northwestern fringe of the snowfall...on order of 1-inch accumulation. But with heavier totals just to the southeast...and 18z NAM progging some more significant lift further north...there will be the potential for higher amounts in the metroplex. The window for snowfall at taf sites remains 2-3 am CST through late morning. Thereafter...ceilings will improve somewhat...eventually clearing near nightfall Friday evening...at which points southerly surface flow will return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Radar starting to pop down towards Austin and spreading NE. Lets see if we can get some snow up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z NAM looks like a nice hit up this way. Using the 15:1 ratios mentioned in the afternoon discussion... 3" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Advisory now covers the entire metroplex URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 834 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011 TXZ092>095-102>107-117>120-123-131>133-041045- /O.EXB.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.110204T0600Z-110204T1800Z/ COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS- PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-RAINS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...SHERMAN...DENISON... BONHAM...PARIS...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE... FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE... COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH... ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI... GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON 834 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND THIS SNOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STICK TO THE GROUND GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES BUT MAY ACTUALLY PROVIDE SOME TRACTION ON ROADS WHICH ARE COVERED IN ICE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Radar continues to look good and just for kicks the 00z NAM clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Flurries here - just starting to kick in, 24 degrees, pressure 30.38 and falling, humidity rising to 73%, winds 10MPH N. I am impressed by the sudden explosion of returns on the radar over the last hour; we should be in for an interesting night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Flurries here - just starting to kick in, 24 degrees, pressure 30.38 and falling, humidity rising to 73%, winds 10MPH N. I am impressed by the sudden explosion of returns on the radar over the last hour; we should be in for an interesting night! and the radar continues to improve! Good luck down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ooooh pretty... EDIT: and here we are, thirty minutes later... approximately one inch an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We should be getting under way shortly - 21, 65%, 30.36 Local forecast upgraded to 2 to 4" for the event. Latest update: 00 FXUS64 KFWD 040254 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 854 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011 .UPDATE... RADAR SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO CENTERVILLE LINE. THE 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECWMF SHOW VERY STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE BIG BEND. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE ARA BETWEEN SNYDER AND KILLEEN. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE LINE. LOOKING FURTHER AT THE NAM...WE MAY EXTEND THE ADVISORY FARTHER WEST TO INCLUDE THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE NEXT HOUR. 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Tiny flakes but coming down hard in Ft. Worth. Street covered in just a few minutes, visibility about 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Tiny flakes but coming down hard in Ft. Worth. Street covered in just a few minutes, visibility about 1/4 mile. It is awesome that we are not going to lose anything to warm surfaces! Saturate the column and the rest is accumulation Edit: First flakes are flying up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 TXDOT reporting that all highways in San Antonio are closed, per KSAT-12 News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wiener Dog Statue vs. Snow is how this event will be measured! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Coming down hard in Arlington. Already over 1/2 inch on the ground near UTA. Based on radar trends, this could easily approach 4 or more inches. NWS might have to consider a Winter Storm Warning if higher totals become more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 TXDOT reporting that all highways in San Antonio are closed, per KSAT-12 News. There's so many elevated highways in both SAT and AUS...my first thought was extreme gridlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wiener Dog Statue vs. Snow is how this event will be measured! Lol so he really is a weather weenie!! I was going to measure by my cat food bowl but it wasn't really picturesque... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Roads covered in no time Edit: Very impressive snow rates. I give this the "over-performer" rating based just on the first 30 min, not really what I expected. Edit 2: Short Jebwalk in the books and this snow is very Colorado mountainish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On my street in Arlington, the snow is all the way to the top of the curb. Grass completely covered. It must be the fluffiness of the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Slacking up here but not a bad show so far. Got lucky and had a patch of 30 - 35 dBZ roll right over our area. Edit: The backside of the 1st wave is about 25 miles west of Ft. Worth but the 6z RUC looks like it wants to back fill things as the h5 crashes in... who knows? Edit 2: That reminds of one of the snows last year in NOVA and everyone was freaking over the radar and PSUHOFFMAN posted a map with a huge circle around the h5 with a note saying, "this is where your snow will come from!" (I could be totally wrong about this but that is how I remember it ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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