Texas/MX Obs And Discussion Thread.

[wxlady]

Tough forecast in Dallas the next couple days. Starting tomorrow morning in the mid-upper 60s with clouds... big question is whether it clears out enough for the NAM's 84 to verify. You could have an entire class on Thursday's temperature forecast alone. Early high in the upper 60s. I would guess the max occurs right after Midnight CST on Thursday. The temperature gradient along the cold front will be very tight, and I would expect 40s during the early afternoon. Low temperature will likely occur right before Midnight CST and be in the mid-upper 30s.

[msp]

Tough forecast in Dallas the next couple days. Starting tomorrow morning in the mid-upper 60s with clouds... big question is whether it clears out enough for the NAM's 84 to verify. You could have an entire class on Thursday's temperature forecast alone. Early high in the upper 60s. I would guess the max occurs right after Midnight CST on Thursday. The temperature gradient along the cold front will be very tight, and I would expect 40s during the early afternoon. Low temperature will likely occur right before Midnight CST and be in the mid-upper 30s.

certainly an interesting weather day. here, it should from from the mid-70s mid-morning to near 50 by the evening and 30s overnight.

as was mentioned before, it should make for interesting weather for the A&M-tu football game. cold, maybe rainy, winds from the north... different from what they're used to.

HGX now says 29F on friday night here. could be the first heavy frost or freeze of the winter.

[Flexo]

certainly an interesting weather day. here, it should from from the mid-70s mid-morning to near 50 by the evening and 30s overnight.

as was mentioned before, it should make for interesting weather for the A&M-tu football game. cold, maybe rainy, winds from the north... different from what they're used to.

HGX now says 29F on friday night here. could be the first heavy frost or freeze of the winter.

HGX seems excited too

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

902 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS

TIME.

SOME PRETTY DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SHOWING UP IN THIS AFTERNOON`S

AND EVENING`S MOS GUIDANCE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.

23/18Z GFS EXAMPLES INCLUDE...

- IAH WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A

LOW OF 40 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

- HOU WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 82 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A

LOW OF 41 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

- LVJ WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 84 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A

LOW OF 42 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

EVEN MORE AMAZING AND NEWLY ARRIVED 24/00Z NAM EXAMPLES INCLUDE...

- CLL WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 87 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A

LOW OF 35 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

- PSX WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A

LOW OF 37 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

TWO MORE "NICE" DAYS LEFT FOR THOSE THAT LIKE THE WARMTH! 42

0z GFS has a high of 80 at IAH thursday, a low of 39 friday morning, and a low of 31 saturday morning...

[TXWXCHX]

We had a high of 83 degrees today in my little corner of the world (due east of Waco) and still are running warm tonight - 71 degrees and 87% humidity at 11:00pm... rather warm for this time of year. Breezy with winds to 15mph; kinda pleasant on the prairie for this time of year. I'm concerned about the possibility of an overrunning event with the possibility of frozen precipitation; I understand it's probably unfounded... but I like to be prepared whenever possible.

It's a shock to the livestock to have the temperature drop so quickly, especially when precipitation of any kind is involved. We've had a late kidding this year, and while the baby goats are loving this warm weather I have real concerns for them over the next few days. One more goat to kid, and we're done - I hope she has her baby tomorrow while it's still warm!!

[msp]

HGX seems excited too

EVEN MORE AMAZING AND NEWLY ARRIVED 24/00Z NAM EXAMPLES INCLUDE...

- CLL WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 87 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A

LOW OF 35 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

that would be ridiculous. 87F would break the record high of 86F... and tomorrow's record is 84F, which may also fall. could be three days of record highs.

friday's record low is 27F. if it cools more than expected friday morning, we could go from setting a record high to coming within several degrees of a record low.

and i'll be gone for all of it.

[Flexo]

that would be ridiculous. 87F would break the record high of 86F... and tomorrow's record is 84F, which may also fall. could be three days of record highs.

friday's record low is 27F. if it cools more than expected friday morning, we could go from setting a record high to coming within several degrees of a record low.

and i'll be gone for all of it.

GFS has the front moving in earlier so the high never reaches 80 at CLL. It also has a low friday morning of 31 for CLL

[Flexo]

I'm concerned about the possibility of an overrunning event with the possibility of frozen precipitation; I understand it's probably unfounded... but I like to be prepared whenever possible.

?

there's a less than 0% chance of that happening

[TXWXCHX]

?

there's a less than 0% chance of that happening

I'm happy with that, trust me. I like snow - but sleet or ice, not so much...

The concern arises from earlier models that indicated a possibility... as per Srain's post Nov 20:

HPC:

THE NEW 12Z ECMWF ...LIKE THE CANADIAN AND UKMET...IS PLAYING UP A STRONG

LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGING THRU THE SWRN STATES ON THANKSGIVING

DAY. IF CORRECT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE FRONT

TO RETARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THU/FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY A

BAND OF OVERRUNNING PCPN N OF THE FRONT.

ONE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE

THE AMPLIFIED TROF/SURFACE SYS CROSSING THE NE CORNER OF THE

CONUS DURING DAY 5...THANKSGIVING. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL

BRING DECENT COOLING WELL DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES IN ITS WAKE. N

OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK...A GOOD SWATH OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL

WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLUSTERY WINDS THU

INTO MUCH OF FRI. UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND OVER

THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE SCALE PACIFIC TROF.

A COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THAT BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED

SYS... THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF LEAVE ENOUGH ENERGY BEHIND

OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRI DAY 6 TO SUPPORT A FLAT WAVE WITH

OVERRUNNING PCPN ALONG THE W GULF COAST. WHILE EARLIER DOWNPLAYING

THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT....IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY....NOW THAT THE

12Z/20 ECMWF HAS A WAVY SCENARIO ACROSS THE GULF STATES FRI-SAT. I

WOULD OFFER MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SOME KIND OF WAVE WITH

OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THU AND SAT ALONG THE GULF

COAST.

I'm probably reading it wrong, and of course it's out of date now anyways..

[Flexo]

The concern arises from earlier models that indicated a possibility... as per Srain's post Nov 20:

The concern is gone and then some now, so.... yeah.

Your goats should be happy

[msp]

still 74/69. temp has risen over the last hour. shouldn't drop below 70F here. this is a few degrees above the average high.

and the record high min for tomorrow is 67F. we should break that easily.

74/71 at hobby, 74/70 at iah too. gross.

[Flexo]

still 74/69. temp has risen over the last hour. shouldn't drop below 70F here. this is a few degrees above the average high.

and the record high min for tomorrow is 67F. we should break that easily.

74/71 at hobby, 74/70 at iah too. gross.

I like these flashbacks to summer we get a few times in the cold season

It's like a warm, comfy blanket wrapping around your body before the harsh reality of winter bares down...

[msp]

I like these flashbacks to summer we get a few times in the cold season

It's like a warm, comfy blanket wrapping around your body

i guess it's a personal thing, but i'd rather it be an actual blanket.

the temp isn't what bothers me. it's that i step outside and feel like i'm drowning.

but you're right that these are just flashbacks. for better or for worse, we probably won't get another one like this for a long time, so you might as well try to enjoy it.

[Flexo]

i guess it's a personal thing, but i'd rather it be an actual blanket.

the temp isn't what bothers me. it's that i step outside and feel like i'm drowning.

but you're right that these are just flashbacks. for better or for worse, we probably won't get another one like this for a long time, so you might as well try to enjoy it.

find a pool or a neighboring pond somewhere and have yourself a November swim

take advantage of the situation, my friend

[msp]

find a pool or a neighboring pond somewhere and have yourself a November swim

take advantage of the situation, my friend

the rec center has too few hours the outdoor pool is open, unfortunately.

and i wouldn't dare touch a pond around here for more reasons than one.

plus, i have to fly out of iah already tomorrow afternoon.

[TXWXCHX]

The concern is gone and then some now, so.... yeah.

Your goats should be happy

Thanks! They are... until the first rain drops fall. Then they freeze up and faint from the sheer horror. They HATE rain...

FINALLY - down below 70... after 1AM... and muggy as all get out here.

[Flexo]

the rec center has too few hours the outdoor pool is open, unfortunately.

and i wouldn't dare touch a pond around here for more reasons than one.

plus, i have to fly out of iah already tomorrow afternoon.

I guess you really are missing the "Spicy Spectacular Blue Norther of November 2010"

I'm sure summer weather will be here when you get back

[msp]

I guess you really are missing the "Spicy Spectacular Blue Norther of November 2010"

I'm sure summer weather will be here when you get back

I'm actually kinda sad about it. Guess I'm going to have to wait a while longer to lose my blue norther-ginity.

[Flexo]

you probably aren't missing much considering you've probably seen your fair share of drastic swings in the Great North of the United States

[Flexo]

So the 6z GFS has a forecasted low of 17 degrees Dec 9th thanks to a 1057 mb high pushing some arctic air straight down the chute into Texas...

I'm going to bump this post on December 9th to see what the actual low temperature will be compared to this ridiculous run.

Yeah. That's right... We're going to have some fun in here

[Srain]

HGX has finally decided to at least mention the potential for a wider spread freeze event for SE TX...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST

THIS MORNING AND THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE N

PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL LAG BACK FROM

THE DAKOTAS TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE A VERY COLD

CANADIAN AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COLD

AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW MOVES INTO

THE N PLAINS. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE

REACHING THE RED RIVER. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL ON THE SAME

PAGE WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING THROUGH 18Z THUR HOWEVER THE GFS

SPEEDS UP THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHES IT THROUGH

THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM/ECMWF LAG BEHIND

THE GFS BY A FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT IS PREFERRED TO STICK WITH

THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION AS FRONT USUALLY HAVE A HARD TIME

MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. I

STILL THINK WE WILL SEE A THIN LINE OF STORMS FORM ALONG THE

FRONT SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A TAD MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF

THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP

AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BEFORE

MIDNIGHT AND THEN WELL INTO THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. THIS SHOULD

BE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT

WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL

SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER C TX.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY

MORNING ACROSS SE TX THAN BEFORE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE

AIRMASS BEING VERY DRY AS DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE

TEENS AND 20S. WINDS SHOULD BE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVEN THE

SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER SE TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE

WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW

FREEZING ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 HOURS.

[msp]

looks like we bottomed out at 73F unless we dropped between obs. assuming it doesn't fall below that by midnight, that should beat the old record by a ridiculous 6 degrees.

[bubba hotep]

So the 6z GFS has a forecasted low of 17 degrees Dec 9th thanks to a 1057 mb high pushing some arctic air straight down the chute into Texas...

I'm going to bump this post on December 9th to see what the actual low temperature will be compared to this ridiculous run.

Yeah. That's right... We're going to have some fun in here

Not ridiculous so go ahead and Book It!

If the rain can hold off, I might be able to squeeze in one more enjoyable run this evening before the cold rolls in.

[Srain]

Artic boundary through Dodge City, KS heading S. Appears to be a bit ahead of schedule and will be in the Panhandle within the hour. Enjoy the AC to heater in 12 hours weather.

[Srain]

San Antonio and Brownsville set new record highs today. College Station tied a 1910 record with 84.

[Srain]

Our Blue Norther is running about 4-6 hour ahead of schedule...

[ticka1]

will be curious to see where the front is in the morning? Will welcome it earlier just so it feels more like Thanksgiving.

Our Blue Norther is running about 4-6 hour ahead of schedule...

[somethingfunny]

Take a trip down US 287 tonight....

Rick Husband Amarillo Intl Airport

Lat: 35.23 Lon: -101.7 Elev: 3586

Last Update on Nov 24, 11:53 pm CST

Fair and Breezy

28 °F (-2 °C)

Humidity:72 %

Wind Speed:N 22 MPH

Barometer:29.83" (1008.4 mb)

Dewpoint:20 °F (-7 °C)

Wind Chill:14 °F (-10 °C)

Visibility:10.00 mi.

Childress Municipal Airport

Lat: 34.44 Lon: -100.28 Elev: 1951

Last Update on Nov 24, 11:53 pm CST

Fair and Breezy

45 °F (7 °C)

Humidity:58 %

Wind Speed:N 23 MPH

Barometer:29.77" (1006.8 mb)

Dewpoint:31 °F (-1 °C)

Wind Chill:36 °F (2 °C)

Visibility:10.00 mi.

Vernon

Lat: 34.23 Lon: -99.28 Elev: 1266

Last Update on Nov 25, 12:25 am CST

Fair and Breezy

49 °F (9 °C)

Humidity:60 %

Wind Speed:N 21 G 30 MPH

Barometer:29.74"

Dewpoint:36 °F (2 °C)

Wind Chill:42 °F (6 °C)

Visibility:10.00 mi.

Wichita Falls, Sheppard Air Force Base

Lat: 33.98 Lon: -98.48 Elev: 1027

Last Update on Nov 24, 11:52 pm CST

Fair

68 °F (20 °C)

Humidity:61 %

Wind Speed:SW 9 MPH

Barometer:29.65" (1002.9 mb)

Dewpoint:54 °F (12 °C)

Visibility:10.00 mi.

Decatur Municipal Airport

Lat: 33.26 Lon: -97.58 Elev: 1047

Last Update on Nov 25, 12:25 am CST

Fair

70 °F (21 °C)

Humidity:79 %

Wind Speed:S 10 G 20 MPH

Barometer:29.69"

Dewpoint:63 °F (17 °C)

Visibility:10.00 mi.

Dallas / Addison Airport

Lat: 32.98 Lon: -96.83 Elev: 643

Last Update on Nov 25, 12:24 am CST

Partly Cloudy

74 °F (24 °C)

Humidity:74 %

Wind Speed:S 12 G 22 MPH

Barometer:29.70"

Dewpoint:65 °F (19 °C)

Visibility:10.00 mi

It's coming.

[TXWXCHX]

3AM and it's 73 degrees here; 80% humidity, dewpoint 67 degrees, winds SSE 20MPH... riding the heat wave preceding the front. It's more like summer than fall (I'm only up this late doing obs because I had to bake two kinds of cornbread for my Thanksgiving stuffing...)

[Srain]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving! The front is through the Metroplex, Brownwood, to San Angelo and heading S at this time. The temp drops look to be in the 15 to 20 degree range behind the boundary. It appears we'll have some post frontal moisture as well with a robust shortwave currently over NM and still digging SE along the base of the trough. It will be interesting to see if the front remains on schedule for a late afternoon/early evening arrival across SE TX. Also, HGX is mentioning a wide spread freeze for Saturday morning and Freeze Warnings are being mentioned as a strong possibility. The rollercoaster ride will continue regarding temps as we warm up starting Sunday to only take a tumble again on Monday in the progressive flow pattern.

HPC regarding next week...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

743 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

VALID 12Z MON NOV 29 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 02 2010

AGAIN TODAY GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT WITHE THE CURRENT

DEEP STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING NEWD TO

THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THEN NWD INTO LABRADOR AS IT ENCOUNTERS

STRONG RIDGING OVER THE N ATLC BY DAY 3 SUN. UPSTREAM GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT DIGGING EPAC TROF COMING INTO THE WEST

COAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT BASIN REGION. BUILDING EPAC HTS

BEHIND THIS TROF MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MON/TUE AS THE MAIN FULL

LATITUDE TROF MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TUES-WED.

BUILDING EAST COAST/WEST ATLC HTS ALLOW SHARPENING OF THE TROF AS

IT MOVES THRU THE MAS VALLEY WED AND THE MAIN TROF LIFTS NEWD AS

IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF

ZONAL FLOW OVER CONUS BEFORE REPEATING THE PATTERN OVER AGAIN WITH

ANOTHER DEEP TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK AND

WEEKEND.

USED ECMWF THRU DAYS 3-6 SUN-WED. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THE

LOWER HTS/DEEPER B.C. TROF SLIDING DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST DAY 6

AND 7 AS PER ECMWF. PREFER TO TEMPER THIS A BIT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY

WITH ENSEMBLES. LATEST 06Z GFS INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR

SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STRONG N-S ORIENTED COLD

FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN COASTAL PLAIN WED-THURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN MON-TUES SETTING UP AN

OFFSHORE EVENT/SANTA ANA OVER CA MON-TUES. SHARPENING MID LEVEL

TROF AND N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL

INFLOW WILL BRING MDT-HVY FRONTAL RAINS THRU THE CENTRAL AND LOWER

MS VALLEY MON AND TUES SPREADING NEWD THRU THE TN AND OH

VALLEYS/APPLACHNS INTO THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST WED. STRONGER

POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY 06Z GFS CONSIDERED

AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR INJECTION OFF

THE SRN TX COAST AND A COLDER POOL AT H850 COMING INTO THE LOWER

OH VALLEY.THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGER WAVE AND HEANY RAIN

POTENTIAL FOR NEW ENGLAND DAY 6 WED IF THIS OCCURS. FOLLOWING THE

COLD FRONT WILL BE THE THREAT OF THE FIRST STRONG INCURSION OF

COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD

FREEZING TEMPS AS FAR EAST AS THE COAST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SRN

GA. NEXT ROUND OF PAC NORTHWEST RAINS AND INLAND HIGHER ELEV SNOWS

INTO THE ROCKIES TUES-THURS.

[Srain]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

740 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

OKZ031-032-039>048-050>052-TXZ086-089-090-251800-

/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0013.101125T1340Z-101125T1800Z/

SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-

JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-WICHITA-

ARCHER-CLAY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN...

PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAURIKA...

ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL...DURANT...

WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...

HENRIETTA

740 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON

CST TODAY.

* A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW

THUNDER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER

NEAR THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.