DFWWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Has anyone seen the 12z ECMWF for next week. Another brutal shot of Arctic air. It has near -20°C+ air sitting on parts of North Texas at H85. If we think it is cold now....Geeez!!!! I don't think I have ever seen that model that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snippet from Jeff... If I would have forecasted a foot of snow in Victoria in 2004, I probably would not have believed myself much less expected others to believe me...and I have a really hard time forecasting totals more than 2-3" at this time. However I am becoming increasingly concerned that a potential historic snow event may be in the making and totals could be greater than 6-8 inches over parts of the area. Under meso scale banding hourly snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches of accumulation with visibilities dropping to near 1/4th of a mile. Where these bands set up we could really see totals ramp up quick. Right now will expand the 1-3" snow fall to include much of the area north of a line from Port Lavaca east to the coast near Palacios and then to High Island and inland to HWY 105. South of a line from Port Lavaca to San Antonio a mix of snow/sleet will cut totals down into the 1/2 to 1.5 inch range. Extended period of sub freezing temperatures prior to the event will result in rare significant snow accumulation not only on bridges but all surface streets. Expect all roadways to become snow covered creating very dangerous driving conditions by late Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey Flexo... Just back from Tahoe and since I didn't stow you away I'll be happy to host you at the Purple Cow in Surfside when we have whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmachiz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Who is jeff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just posted on the local forum by Jeff... Potentially a historic snow event in the making for SE TX. Models continue to trend wetter and while QPF is not all that int he GFS its moisture fields above the surface are for sure. Am starting to think the CMC is on the right track here and feel some impressive totals will be possible with meso scale banding. Could easily see 3-5 inches across the entire area with bands over 6-8 inches (my latest e-mail has a discussion of the thinking, if someone could post it). I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here? Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon. Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just posted on the local forum by Jeff... You really have to like the trends from 6z to 18z with the GFS OP and it is still on the dry side when compared to the GFS Ens. The H5 setup looks good and I wouldn't be surprised to see snow from Dallas down to Austin and then east towards the Gulf. I'll go with an early call of a Trace to 1" for E Dallas and then increasing as you head SE towards the Gulf with totals pretty much in line with what Jeff laid out but someone will see 10"! (That is a real weenie call and I wouldn't bet on snow as far NW as Dallas) Just for the hey of it I'll put together a 1st call map tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 if we are going to get a hefty snowstorm for south and southeast tx, it's probably deserving of its own thread so we can leave the cold temp and longer range disco in here. 26F now... 14F tonight. glad my outdoor soccer class tomorrow morning was moved inside. 29F thurs; when's the last time the high here was subfreezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snippet from Jeff... If I would have forecasted a foot of snow in Victoria in 2004, I probably would not have believed myself much less expected others to believe me...and I have a really hard time forecasting totals more than 2-3" at this time. However I am becoming increasingly concerned that a potential historic snow event may be in the making and totals could be greater than 6-8 inches over parts of the area. Under meso scale banding hourly snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches of accumulation with visibilities dropping to near 1/4th of a mile. Where these bands set up we could really see totals ramp up quick. Right now will expand the 1-3" snow fall to include much of the area north of a line from Port Lavaca east to the coast near Palacios and then to High Island and inland to HWY 105. South of a line from Port Lavaca to San Antonio a mix of snow/sleet will cut totals down into the 1/2 to 1.5 inch range. Extended period of sub freezing temperatures prior to the event will result in rare significant snow accumulation not only on bridges but all surface streets. Expect all roadways to become snow covered creating very dangerous driving conditions by late Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 if we are going to get a hefty snowstorm for south and southeast tx, it's probably deserving of its own thread so we can leave the cold temp and longer range disco in here. 26F now... 14F tonight. glad my outdoor soccer class tomorrow morning was moved inside. 29F thurs; when's the last time the high here was subfreezing? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12238-houston-area-snow-miracle-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy80Arss0Go Houston right now! Panic in the streets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's 17 degrees here, winds 20mph nw, with light snow flurries. I don't have a clue from where the lil' snowflakes are coming, but who am I to question miracles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Sy80Arss0Go Houston right now! Panic in the streets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Sy80Arss0Go Houston right now! Panic in the streets! I lol'd - but it's true. Reminds me of that King of the Hill episode where it snowed (sorta) in Arlen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's so damn cold, it's causing rolling blackouts... not enough Power!! http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/weather/entries/2011/02/02/statewide_power.html?cxntfid=blogs_weather_watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 East and SE DFW have to like the overnight model trends. It is looking more and more like we will see some snow out of the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's so damn cold, it's causing rolling blackouts... not enough Power!! http://www.statesman...s_weather_watch Sheriff's office here just issued a statement to all emergency/first responders that the power situation is "critical". Locally, we've lost power (briefly) to entire towns twice this morning already - and we haven't even begun to deal with the upcoming snow event. For rural areas, this could become a nightmare especially regarding the elderly and special needs populations; those who rely on oxygen concentrators or those who have no alternative source of heat are going to be in trouble... I'm concerned about water supplies next, because it's cold enough out here (15 degrees) that the pipes will start to freeze when power is lost... Light flurries continuing here, as they have all night, resulting in a light slick cover on all surfaces. Winds 15-20mph N, humidity 75%, pressure 30.75 and rising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Growing more concerned that DFW has another bout of snowfall Thursday night into Friday aggravating already icy roads. However, I would caution that the Gulf hugging lows, as is often the case, keep the deeper moisture from reaching North Texas. This is a most interesting system to watch. However, an inch or two of more snow is not a good sign with temperatures well below freezing. Also, another bitter blast of Arctic air expected next week for much of Texas with another McFarland Signature developing. There is also a good sign that much of central and North Texas could see snowfall with this blast as well by next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The rolling blackouts have now caused transformers to be completely blown in some areas. They are going to move people to rec centers from their homes for heat. I know a person who has been without power for over 6 hours in Grand Prairie and she can get no help. Maybe all businesses and schools should just close the rest of the week to lessen the demand on power consumption. Only leave emergency police, fire, hospitals, etc open. We clearly cannot handle this. A similar occurance happened back in February of 1989 and schools were closed for a week well after ice had melted to alleviate the demands on power. This is an unacceptable situation!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Growing more concerned that DFW has another bout of snowfall Thursday night into Friday aggravating already icy roads. However, I would caution that the Gulf hugging lows, as is often the case, keep the deeper moisture from reaching North Texas. This is a most interesting system to watch. However, an inch or two of more snow is not a good sign with temperatures well below freezing. Also, another bitter blast of Arctic air expected next week for much of Texas with another McFarland Signature developing. There is also a good sign that much of central and North Texas could see snowfall with this blast as well by next Tuesday. Most of the 12z package looks drier for the DFW area but the GFS OP is still on the dry side of the Ens and the SREF still gives a little hope. It will interesting to watch this unfold and see if we can squeeze out an inch of very fluffy snow. I'm going to bank on this GFS Ens member! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Rolling blackouts should lessen as we move through the afternoon. http://fuelfix.com/b...ling-blackouts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am liking the changes at h5 so far on the 18z NAM for us up this way. Edit: No big win for the DFW area but the best run of the NAM yet for this system. Still dry up this way but this run had the most qpf of the latest NAM runs and the NAM has been on the dry side of the models. Oh well, the office has been closed for two days and it is too cold to get out and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NWS service is talking about issuing a Winter Weather Advisory, after saying pretty confidently precip type would be all snow on this afternoon's AFD. Wouldn't a Snow Advisory be more appropriate given the precip type is all snow? Anyhow, speaking of snow, next week looks a lot more promising from the ECMWF for more signficant snowfall across the area. I don't agree with the AFD NWS that next week will not be as cold. The GFS ensemble 2m average means are 21+ degrees below normal for the middle of next week all three runs today. That is pretty significant this far out and given some model pertubations showing signals of a McFarland signature and H85 temps below -15°C approaching -20°C on some runs over North Texas, wouldn't be surprised that we are this cold or colder next week, especially if we get snowfall. Also, the airmass looks colder to start with next week, and given all the snow that has fallen, it will not modify as it plunges southward. You people in south Texas may need to prepare for more freezes next week, not just snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NWS service is talking about issuing a Winter Weather Advisory, after saying pretty confidently precip type would be all snow on this afternoon's AFD. Wouldn't a Snow Advisory be more appropriate given the precip type is all snow? Snow advisories, along with those heavy snow warnings and blowing snow advisories, were discontinued a few years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sleet has been reported in the New Orleans area, including Kenner and the West Bank. http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2011/02/sleet_falling_on_the_west_bank.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow advisories, along with those heavy snow warnings and blowing snow advisories, were discontinued a few years ago... Interesting, I did not know that. Wonder why they did that? What about Freezing Rain Advisory cause I seem to remember one of thosed issued a year or so back for the area? Are all advisories pertaining to winter weather now just going to be the Winter Weather Advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 National Weather Service out of BRO issued a Winter Storm Watch for the RGV earlier today. Now they have dropped our chance of seeing wintry precipitation from 50% to 30% and don't mention any accumulations. What am I missing? It seems like there is a battle of sorts shaping up between the GFS, which shows most of the heavy precipitation in the RGV and Coastal Bend, and a pocket near the Houston area versus the European (and I believe other models), which has (have) most of the heaviest precipitation in SE Texas. Is any particular model more reliable in terms of QPF than any other model? Any thoughts on which model forecast is most likely to verify? How much am I looking at in the McAllen area? The GFS has been giving me anywhere from 2-3 inches, while the European gave me .70". All comments are welcomed, as I am still learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 rolling blackouts here too. campus obviously has electricity, but stores just off don't. can't imagine the next two days will help much. disappointing we only hit 19F this morning. thought we'd beat that by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It is getting late in the game but wouldn't be surprised to see some NW expansion and some higher amounts sneaking into the eastern half of the metroplex: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 After the state decided to cut my power off for over seven hours, I've returned to the land of warm-blooded. Since my house was without power, I decided to spend the day venturing around the metroplex with my live stream and watch stupid people crash their expensive vehicles. I succeeded in my goal. Needless to say, there is no reason to be out on the roads. I didn't have any issues getting around, but I spent $2000 on tires and have 4WD, so I shouldn't have issues. What's this about another winter weather event on Friday, Monday, and Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 After the state decided to cut my power off for over seven hours, I've returned to the land of warm-blooded. Since my house was without power, I decided to spend the day venturing around the metroplex with my live stream and watch stupid people crash their expensive vehicles. I succeeded in my goal. Needless to say, there is no reason to be out on the roads. I didn't have any issues getting around, but I spent $2000 on tires and have 4WD, so I shouldn't have issues. What's this about another winter weather event on Friday, Monday, and Wednesday? DFW drivers are just a joke and can't handle rain more less ice packed roads. 00z NAM is a bust while the GFS is about the same as 18z. The 21z SREF doesn't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.