Flexo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also, some severe thunderstorm warnings just to my west. CLL has dropped from 66 to 40. The forecast from HGX last night did not have the front reaching SE TX until just after 6 am..... It'll be through the Houston area in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Absolute sleet downpour I've experienced blizzard conditions in NOVA but have never seen sleet this heavy before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Now sleet mixing back in with snow in Ft. Worth, heavy enough to reduce visibility to 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 HGX gives College Station the chance to see wind chills fall below zero. This has not happened in over a decade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Roads are covered with sleet and snow is starting to mix in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 39 now after some tstorms an hour or two ago. maybe an outside shot at zr this morning, though the radar doesnt look so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still heavy sleet but looks like changeover should occur in the next 30 min or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 68 to 39 in 45 minutes and a gust to 43. Nice front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Email from our Pro at HCFCD... Memorable arctic outbreak arriving across the region this morning. Hard Freeze Warning issued for all areas for tonight Wind Advisory issued for all areas through late this evening Winter Storm becoming likely Thursday night/Friday with accumulations of snow Discussion: Much talked about arctic outbreak is here with a powerful front cutting SE TX in half this morning with temperatures falling into the 30’s from the upper 60’s within a few minutes of the fronts arrival. Blizzard conditions ongoing over W TX into N TX and OK with howling NW winds (temperatures in the teens and 20’s, wind chills in the -10 to 0 range). In fact roughly 100 million residents across the plains and Midwest will see more than 1 foot of snow and blizzard conditions today. Arctic boundary is way ahead of model timing and will be off the coast by 800-900am. Very strong NW winds of 30-40mph will develop behind the initial damaging winds along the leading edge of the squall line. Will break out impacts for wind and temperatures and then break out forecast time periods below. Wind Advisory: Massive arctic surface high building down the plains will result in a powerful pressure gradient with very strong winds howling well into tonight. These winds will drive wind chills into the 1’s and 10’s this afternoon and evening (a rare experience for those this far south). Sustained NW winds of 25-35mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be likely today and into tonight. Winds should finally begin to relax into the 15-20mph range early Wednesday. Hard Freeze Warning: Hard Freeze warning is in effect for the entire area (all counties) for tonight into Wednesday. Forecasting lows in the mid to upper 10’s over our northern counties to lower 20’s central to upper 20’s at the beaches and on the island. Areas north of HWY 105 will be below freezing for up to 20 hours, north of US 59 16 hours and along the coast 6-8 hours. Will see similar cold lows again on Thursday and Friday mornings. Winter Storm Threat (Thursday/Friday): Confidence is growing that a winter storm will affect the region Thursday night and Friday. Impressive upper level trough over the northern Rockies will drop southward into the base of the long wave trough over the SW US allowing the piece of energy to deepen into an upper level low. Cold arctic dome will be firmly entrenched over the region with forecast soundings showing freezing/subfreezing profiles for the entire area. ECMWF and CMC continue to be slower with the ejection of this trough and will side with the stronger and slower solution (GFS and NAM are fastest)> The GFS was too fast on the Sunday system and SW US upper troughs tend to eject slower than models project. The slower motion of the trough will allow a greater period of moisture to pool and advect into the 850-700mb region ahead of the trough. Feel the models (especially the GFS) is too dry in the 500-700mb layer (ice growth layer) and that more moisture than being shown will be available. Large scale deep layer lift will begin Thursday afternoon with increasing clouds and lowering cloud bases. Should start to see sleet/snow develop along the Rio Grande River and near Corpus Christi by early evening and then spread/develop N/E overnight. Combination of isentropic lift in the deep cold dome and potential for low to mid level frotogenic forcing points toward the formation of multiple meso scale snow bands (similar to Dec 2004). Surface dewpoints will be in the 10’s and low level dry layer will wet bulb as the precipitation starts keeping surface temperatures below freezing for the entire event. Far south, NW Gulf surface low will develop and has the potential to bring a slight 850mb warm nose back toward the coastal locations early Friday morning which may result in P-type changing to or mixing with IP (sleet). Dominant P-type will be snow for all other locations away from the beaches. Accumulations: Looks like we indeed will see accumulations with this event. CMC is by far the wettest model and the GFS the driest with the ECMWF in the middle. Will go wetter than the GFS but not as bad as the CMC just yet. Dec 04 snowstorm looked the same way on the models (moisture starved up until the event started and then bam). Looks like accumulations will be possible across the entire region with the best chances in a band from W of Corpus Christi to Victoria to Wharton. Still too early to talk totals, but a rough early estimate with a 10:1 ratio (usually we are closer to 7:1 down here, but with such cold temperatures the normal ratio may work out better) would be about 1-3 inches south of I-10 on the ground. If the CMC is correct we would be talking 6-8 inches across much of the area…a blizzard by our standards! 12-Hour Forecasts (Today through Friday): North: along and north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston Central: along and north of a line Victoria to Sugar Land to Humble to Liberty South: inland coastal counties to US 59 Coastal: beaches Today: Showers and thunderstorms before noon following by rapidly falling temperatures. NW winds 30-35mph with gust of 45mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s early falling into the 1’s and 10’s by sunset. Temperatures falling into the 30’s all areas by mid afternoon and upper 20’s north. Tonight: Hard Freeze Warning in effect. Cloudy and windy with NW winds 20-25mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 1’s and 10’s. Lows: North: 16-19 Central: 20-24 South: 25-28 Coastal: 28-30 Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and very cold with NW winds of 15-20mph. Highs: North: 30-34 Central: 33-37 South: 35-38 Coastal: 36-39 Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy and very cold with NW winds of 10-15mph Lows: North: 17-20 Central: 22-25 South: 26-28 Coastal: 28-30 Thursday: Increasing clouds and continued very cold. N winds 10-15mph Highs: North: 32-35 Central: 34-37 South: 35-38 Coastal: 36-40 Thursday night: Cloudy with snow developing. Chance of snow 50%. Snow may mix with sleet near the coast and south of Victoria. Accumulations possible. Lows: North: 22-25 Central: 23-26 South: 25-28 Coastal: 29-31 Friday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of snow, some snow may be heavy at times. Snow may mix with sleet early along the coast. Accumulations likely. Highs: North: 30-34 Central: 29-34 South: 30-33 Coastal: 31-34 Actions: Preparations for an extended period of freezing weather should be completed at this time. Hazardous driving conditions may develop Thursday night and early Friday as winter precipitation develops over the area. TXDOT started applying anti-ice agent to freeways and flyovers in Montgomery County yesterday and these actions will be increased and expanded to other areas on Wednesday. Very cold ground temperatures will make this agent only somewhat effective. Believe the first amounts of snow early Friday will melt with the remaining little ground warmth and then freeze as a layer of ice on most surfaces and then snow will accumulate on top of this layer of ice making for very dangerous travel conditions. Unlike past events surface roads (not just bridges and overpasses) will likely be impacted given the cold ground when the event starts. Active TXDOT Road Condition Map: http://www.txdot.gov/gis/hcrs_main/viewer.htm Aviation: Significant travel impacts as US central plains blizzard impacts major airports across the Midwest, plains, and into the NE. Suspect some airports will close completely as snow removal operations will not be able to keep up with heavy snow/blowing snow. End of the week will bring our own problems locally with winter precipitation. Suspect de-icing of aircraft control surfaces will be required at all local airports by Thursday night which will result in long delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Email from our Pro at HCFCD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I still have pics of when it snowed on the beach down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is flurries around here. But its out towards the end of the run. Verbatim would be about an inch's worth of liquid in about 12 hours, but snow that light probably doesn't accumulate, if I had to guess. BPT looks better, but may have p-type issues... Was going to load the NCEP map, the Northeast people's must be crashing it... e-Wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Shallow cold? naaah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Op GFS still faster and a little weaker with the trough compared to it's ensembles...can you tell which is the driest model? (C001 is Op) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z GFS is a bit slower and stronger with the trough, so it gets a bit wetter also. Probably still underdone, but closer to what probably come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z GFS is a bit slower and stronger with the trough, so it gets a bit wetter also. Probably still underdone, but closer to what probably come to pass. Still disappointing IMBY. Hoping the ensembles continue the trend of generally wetter than the operational. Also cause for hope, the NAM misses a decent snow here byy about 50 miles from almost 3 days away. If I have to endure cold, which I hate, I want snow, preferably enough to cancel school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still disappointing IMBY. Hoping the ensembles continue the trend of generally wetter than the operational. Also cause for hope, the NAM misses a decent snow here byy about 50 miles from almost 3 days away. If I have to endure cold, which I hate, I want snow, preferably enough to cancel school. School is cancelled for preschoolers here if temps are below 38F . So my wife will probably have to deal with my double-trouble for the rest of the week. Plus, it's a national holiday monday...plus Euro, CMC and now the GFS say that at least tuesday is another school cancel day. A couple of kids will be very happy, but a grown up won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 29F and still dropping here at CLL. w.c. down to 16F only got 0.28" last night, but i'll take it. can't believe the gusts to 56mph didn't wake me up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z GGEM, slightly faster and a little less intense with the trough...hence a little drier...but still wetter than the rest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We never switched over to heavy snow here but we have had steady flurries / light snow since the sleet pulled out. Now can we get a N trend on this next system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not looking too bad in UKMET and Euro world either. I suspect the chatter level will only increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1058mb high entering MT @ day 7 (12z )Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very cold artic blast next week in the Euro, but now tilted a bit to the east of the state.0C 850mb just north of the city of Veracruz...-4C close to Tampico...-8C near HOU and MTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Apparently the 12z Euro would give Htown 2 to 2.5 in. of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Apparently the 12z Euro would give Htown 2 to 2.5 in. of snow... Hopefully I can get 0.5" of stratocumuli snow... that should be a rather rare snow formation layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freeze warnings for the Valley, where Texas Ruby Red Grapefruit are grown. I'll be really miffed if citrus gets more expensive and we don't at least get snow to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freeze warnings for the Valley, where Texas Ruby Red Grapefruit are grown. I'll be really miffed if citrus gets more expensive and we don't at least get snow to show for it. You'll get your snow, don't worry. HGX is about to drop a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You'll get your snow, don't worry. HGX is about to drop a bomb. Things are starting to look good down that way. However, I would not mind locking this in from the 12z GFS Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 HGX goes with a general 1-3 inch amounts across the area with snow on Galveston Island. They also state that amounts could be higher and perhaps much higher under meso banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Giddy like a school girl over here Tonight...Partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows around 19. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Wind chill readings 2 to 12. Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Colder. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 2 to 12 in the morning. Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Thursday...Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of flurries late in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 4 to 14 in the morning. Thursday Night...Snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Ice accumulation of less than one tenth of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Friday...Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the morning decreasing to 30 percent in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.