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Texas/MX Obs And Discussion Thread.


Srain

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Op GFS has been faster with the trough than all the ensemble members for at least 3 runs. The ensemble, the Euro and the GGEM are in a lot better agreement.

The slower progression of the trough translates into a wetter pattern to it's east (C001 is the OP).

f90.gif

But some of those are way too warm for snow here. Ugh :(

I'll take the OP run

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0904 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN OK...NW TX.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 010304Z - 010900Z

BAND OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH MORE PURELY FREEZING RAIN ON

ITS SRN/ERN FRINGES AND SLEET ON WRN FRINGES...IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE/EXPAND NEWD FROM NW TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 06Z...POSSIBLY

REACHING PORTIONS NERN OK INVOF TUL AROUND 08-10Z. ACTIVITY ALSO

MAY BACKBUILD SWWD SOMEWHAT ACROSS NW TX INTO AREAS E OF LBB AND S

OF CDS. ALSO...CONVERSION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL

OCCUR WITHIN PORTIONS PRECIP PLUME INITIALLY SE OF FREEZING LINE.

EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES BRIEFLY REACHING

0.5-0.75 INCH/HOUR RANGE...BUT WITH .10-.25 INCH/HOUR RATES MORE

COMMON.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- ANALYZED ON 00Z UPPER-AIR CHARTS OVER

CENTRAL/NRN NM...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TO W TX BY ABOUT

09Z...PRECEDED BY EXTENSIVE AREA OF MIDLEVEL DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL WAA

ABOVE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CONTINUING

TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS NRN HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TX...AS WELL AS

CONCHO VALLEY AND PERMIAN BASIN. FREEZING AND WET-BULB 0 LINES

LIKEWISE WILL MOVE SWD BENEATH PROGRESSIVELY MORE OF PRECIP PLUMES

NOW SPREADING NEWD FROM NW TX AND FROM ABI AREA. TIME SERIES OF

FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE

TRANSPORT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOISTEN

COLUMN IN MOST OF 700-850 MB LAYER AND KEEP IT SUPERFREEZING...WHILE

RAPIDLY INCREASING LAYER RH AND REMOVING CINH IN SUPPORT OF

CONVECTIVE PRECIP. MUCAPE 300-500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...EXTENDING WELL

INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR THUNDER. DEPTH OF SUPERFREEZING

LAYER SUGGESTS AMPLE MELTING OPPORTUNITY FOR GRAUPEL AND SNOW

GENERATED ALOFT...WHICH THEN WOULD FREEZE WITHIN DEEP POST-FRONTAL

BOUNDARY LAYER. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE

1. ON WRN MARGINS OF EXPANDING PRECIP PLUME...ESPECIALLY AFTER

06Z...WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF APCHG MID-UPPER

TROUGH COULD KEEP/COOL COLUMN BELOW FREEZING AND FAVOR INCREASING

PROBABILITY OF SNOW...AND

2. ON SRN/ERN FRINGES WHERE FRONTAL LAYER MAY REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH

FOR DROPS TO REMAIN LIQUID TO SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2011

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

post-32-0-90357700-1296531083.gif

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000

FXUS64 KFWD 010349 AAB

AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

949 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE THIS

EVENING WITH A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SWINGING EASTWARD OUT OF

NEW MEXICO. UPWARD FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EVIDENT BY RAPIDLY

COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS AND

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST HOUR.

COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S NORTH OF

A COMANCHE TO PARIS LINE...AND 50S AND 60S FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER

THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT IS

MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE FALLEN

INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS COLD AIR WILL

AFFECT WESTERN COUNTIES FIRST...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION AND

WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN

RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF

THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE AND

THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL

CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE

A PERIOD OF TWO OR THREE HOURS WHERE SOME MODERATE FREEZING RAIN

COULD OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FROM NEAR

GRAHAM TO BOWIE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM

AND 02Z RUC INDICATE THAT THE 1000-850MB LAYER WILL COOL QUICKLY

TO BELOW FREEZING SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A STOUT WARM

NOSE WILL PERSIST AROUND 800MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS

TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES AS MUCH AS 350J/KG OF

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD AIR. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT

SOME IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SLEET SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER

TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CANT RULE OUT THUNDER SLEET

FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR

SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE

LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONGEST FRONTOGENTIC ZONE AND

POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO SET UP.

GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...WILL LEAVE THE WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS

IS...BUT CHANGE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SLEET AND

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE PURE

SNOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND RED RIVER COUNTIES

THROUGH MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WE COULD SEE ALL

SNOW OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.

IN ADDITION...WILL BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE METROPLEX TO 2 TO

3 INCHES...MAINLY SLEET ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL CONTINUE TO

MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS.

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000

FXUS64 KFWD 010349 AAB

AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

949 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE THIS

EVENING WITH A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SWINGING EASTWARD OUT OF

NEW MEXICO. UPWARD FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EVIDENT BY RAPIDLY

COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS AND

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST HOUR.

COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S NORTH OF

A COMANCHE TO PARIS LINE...AND 50S AND 60S FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER

THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT IS

MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE FALLEN

INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS COLD AIR WILL

AFFECT WESTERN COUNTIES FIRST...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION AND

WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN

RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF

THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE AND

THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL

CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE

A PERIOD OF TWO OR THREE HOURS WHERE SOME MODERATE FREEZING RAIN

COULD OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FROM NEAR

GRAHAM TO BOWIE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM

AND 02Z RUC INDICATE THAT THE 1000-850MB LAYER WILL COOL QUICKLY

TO BELOW FREEZING SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A STOUT WARM

NOSE WILL PERSIST AROUND 800MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS

TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES AS MUCH AS 350J/KG OF

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD AIR. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT

SOME IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SLEET SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER

TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CANT RULE OUT THUNDER SLEET

FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR

SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE

LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONGEST FRONTOGENTIC ZONE AND

POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO SET UP.

GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...WILL LEAVE THE WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS

IS...BUT CHANGE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SLEET AND

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE PURE

SNOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND RED RIVER COUNTIES

THROUGH MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WE COULD SEE ALL

SNOW OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.

IN ADDITION...WILL BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE METROPLEX TO 2 TO

3 INCHES...MAINLY SLEET ACCUMULATION.

Thunder Sleet :guitar:

Got a bag of chips and a cold beer in hand

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Winter Storm and Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

TXC049-083-010445-

/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0001.110201T0359Z-110201T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

959 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CST

* AT 956 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES

NORTHEAST OF SANTA ANNA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR THRIFTY...THRIFTY AND LAKE BROWNWOOD BY 1005 PM

CST...

BURKETT BY 1010 PM CST...

LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR BYRDS STORE AND CROSS CUT BY 1015 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE

STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

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Drop from 45 to 36 here in Ft. Worth between 22:55 and 23:55. (Hope it keeps zooming down so we don't get enough icing to kill the power lines.)

More amazing is the fact I actually got the DFW NWS page to load after only 3 refreshes just now. That website has had major problems for months, but is nearly useless today. Houston NWS rarely has the same problem, anyone know what's the deal with the DFW office?

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Needless to say, the freeze line has zoomed southeast this evening, well ahead of model projections. That's not too much of a surprise considering how shallow it is at first, but even I'm surprised how its almost six hours early. I was hoping to get a two hour nap in before driving up to Gainesville from Dallas (I'm on duty for a few media stations) but it looks like I'm gonna have to forgo that and get up there before everything ices over. FML :lightning:

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Needless to say, the freeze line has zoomed southeast this evening, well ahead of model projections. That's not too much of a surprise considering how shallow it is at first, but even I'm surprised how its almost six hours early. I was hoping to get a two hour nap in before driving up to Gainesville from Dallas (I'm on duty for a few media stations) but it looks like I'm gonna have to forgo that and get up there before everything ices over. FML :lightning:

I hope you're taking emergency cold weather supplies with you! Blanket, mittens, munchies just in case you get stuck? (I know, I know but it's Texas... it only takes 1/4" fropa for us to get socked in...)

Still sitting on 60 degrees here.

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Needless to say, the freeze line has zoomed southeast this evening, well ahead of model projections. That's not too much of a surprise considering how shallow it is at first, but even I'm surprised how its almost six hours early. I was hoping to get a two hour nap in before driving up to Gainesville from Dallas (I'm on duty for a few media stations) but it looks like I'm gonna have to forgo that and get up there before everything ices over. FML :lightning:

Freezing line is crashing through the Metroplex and look at that radar..... this could get very interesting

fztp.gif?1296544919291

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mcd0062.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1129 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX THROUGH N-CENTRAL

TX...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN OK.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 010529Z - 011030Z

NWRN PORTIONS OF PRECIP BAND...FROM W-CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS

PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...SHOULD EXPERIENCE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS SFC FREEZING LINE MOVES SWD BENEATH

ACTIVITY...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES COMMONLY .25 INCH/HOUR AND

BRIEF/ISOLATED RATES .5 INCH/HOUR. EMBEDDED TSTMS ALSO MAY PRODUCE

ISOLATED SVR HAIL. PRECIP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF AREA SHOULD CHANGE

TO SNOW AFTER ABOUT 06Z WITH SPORADIC 1 INCH/HOUR RATES POSSIBLE.

05Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED FREEZING LINE NEAR ADM...20 NNW MWL...40

NW SJT...15 S MAF...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD FROM

COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL CAA...DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND WET-BULB

EFFECTS. PRECIP BAND INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM CROCKETT COUNTY NEWD

TO MONTAGUE/COOKE COUNTIES IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS EDWARDS

PLATEAU...WRN/NRN HILL COUNTRY AND N-CENTRAL TX...BUT AT SLOWER PACE

THAN SEWD SHIFT OF SFC FREEZING LINE. THIS EWD SHIFT OF PRECIP

SHOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH THAT OF MAX IN 700-850 MB LAYER

FRONTOGENESIS...IMPINGING UPON REGIME OF MOIST ADVECTION/TRANSPORT

ACCOMPANYING BROAD/30-35 KT LLJ. ELEVATED MUCAPE 250-700 J/KG IS

EXPECTED JUST E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH 40-55 KT EFFECTIVE

SHEAR SUPPORTING SOME ROTATION ALOFT IN RELATIVELY DISCRETE

CELLS...AND RELATED ENHANCEMENT TO MIDLEVEL UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND

HAIL GENERATION POTENTIAL.

MEANWHILE...FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN REAR PORTION OF CONVECTIVE

PLUME...THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW IN WWD/NWWD

CROSS-SECTION...AS SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE BECOMES

MORE VERTICALLY COMPRESSED AND WEAKER IN MAGNITUDE. RAIN MAY CHANGE

STRAIGHT TO SNOW AFTER 06Z ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN REGION...AS

CONTINUED DEEPENING OF POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER COINCIDES WITH

COOLING OF COLUMN ALOFT...AND LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT AHEAD OF

STG/APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2011

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