DFWWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DFW now added to Winter Storm Watch. Potential for convection with sleet and freezing rain. This could be a paralyzing ice storm for the Metroplex with ice hanging around for several days. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX350 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TODALLAS TO BONHAM...TXZ093-094-103>105-117>120-129>133-141-311800-/O.EXA.KFWD.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110201T2100Z/GRAYSON-FANNIN-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...DE LEON350 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMLATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT ANDTUESDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLDFRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BY 7AM....TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S BEHIND THE COLDFRONT AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND A TENTH OF ANINCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TOFALL...THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. UP TO1 INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SLIGHTERRORS WITH THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE SWITCH FROM RAIN TO WINTRYPRECIP COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE FORECASTED ICE ANDSNOW AMOUNTS.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DFW now added to Winter Storm Watch. Potential for convection with sleet and freezing rain. This could be a paralyzing ice storm for the Metroplex with ice hanging around for several days. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX350 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TODALLAS TO BONHAM...TXZ093-094-103>105-117>120-129>133-141-311800-/O.EXA.KFWD.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110201T2100Z/GRAYSON-FANNIN-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...DE LEON350 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMLATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT ANDTUESDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLDFRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BY 7AM....TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S BEHIND THE COLDFRONT AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND A TENTH OF ANINCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TOFALL...THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. UP TO1 INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SLIGHTERRORS WITH THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE SWITCH FROM RAIN TO WINTRYPRECIP COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE FORECASTED ICE ANDSNOW AMOUNTS.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. I wouldn't go quite that bullish just yet. I don't see enough evidence to suggest this will be more then a moderate inconvenience. We may get 2-3 hours of sleet/freezing rain but the infrastructure will be well above freezing until the very end. If the models come in colder and we end up seeing much more though, then I'll get concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Crazy TX Weather Week ahead... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX... ...TX... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS TX WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK LIFT WILL SUPPRESS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...BUT INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX AFTER DARK. THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK THROUGH 12Z. ..HART/GRAMS.. 01/31/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 From our Pro Met at HCFCD... Dangerous winter weather heading for the state of Texas.Preparations for an extended period of very cold air should be completed today. Major winter storm to affect W and N TX tonight and Tuesday into the central plains Winter precipitation possible across the entire TX coast (including S TX) Thursday and Friday. Discussion: Long advertised arctic outbreak is on the move this morning with the very cold air mass now crossing the US border over Montana and North Dakota. Current temperatures are -27 in northern Montana with the leading edge of the arctic front in central Wyoming. Strong blocking along the US west coast with ridging building deep into Alaska will force the -30 to -40 degree air mass over NW Canada southward into the US central plains over the next 24-36 hours. Appears record cold temperatures are on the way to much of the plains along with a major blizzard for the central plains and Great Lakes. Overnight lows forecast to drop into the -5 to -10 range over the Texas panhandle and possibly the lower teens to single digits over N TX. Sub-zero wind chills will be likely as far south as Waco by Wednesday. Will break the impacts down by time periods to try and help layout an extremely difficult and changeable forecast. Tuesday: Powerful arctic boundary will reach the TX panhandle this evening and sweep southward across N TX by sunrise. Shallow but very cold air mass will undercut the warm Gulf surface layer with widespread rainfall/thunderstorms. Temperatures prior to the front will reach the mid-upper 60’s and then fall rapidly into the 30’s behind the front. Rain will change to freezing rain/sleet/snow from NW to SE over N TX during the day on Tuesday while a large blizzard develops from W TX into OK. Travel to W TX and N TX/OK on Tuesday will be extremely dangerous with heavy blowing snow on 40-45mph winds and temperatures in the teens and 20’s. Tuesday night: Arctic cold front blasts into the Gulf of Mexico with very strong cold air advection in progress. Winds will howl post front 20-35mph with gust to 40mph driving wind chills into the teens all across coastal Texas and to near zero as far south as Waco. Freezing line will advance to the US 59 corridor by mid evening and then to the coast with mid 20’s for all locations north of a line from Huntsville to Sugar Land to Victoria by Wednesday morning. This will be a damaging advective freeze for sensitive vegetation. Wind advisories may be required for parts of the area. Wednesday: Arctic dome deepens toward 900mb with low level moisture likely trapped near the surface keeping skies mostly cloudy. Strong north winds will continue to drive very cold air southward off the snow pack over W and N TX/OK. Will likely see very little warming to maybe freezing NW of a line from Conroe to Hempstead to Victoria. SE of this line highs may reach the mid 30’s. Wind chills will be in the teens. Clouds may clear out some Wednesday night allowing lows for Thursday morning to bottom out in the teens N of HWY 105, low 20’s along the US 59 corridor, and upper 20’s/low 30’s along the coast. Forecast for Thursday onward is subject to major changes due to high uncertainty when dealing with forecasting winter precipitation in coastal Texas. There will be significant changes over the next few days to what is described below, it is the best prediction at this time with the model data available. Thursday: Upper level energy over the northern Rockies currently dives SSW into the SW US and then begins to move eastward toward TX. Arctic dome deepens toward 850-700mb (5,000-20,000 ft deep) with the center of the arctic high over western OK/KS. GFS is the fastest with this trough ejecting over TX while the ECMWF and CMC are the slowest. The CMC is by far the wettest with the GFS and ECMWF drier. Expect weak isentropic lift to begin midday Thursday thickening the mid level cloud deck. Soundings for CRP and VCT by Thursday evening show a saturated mid to low level profile completely below freezing, but all sounding sites show a very dry sub-cloud layer near the surface. Expect lifting processes and frontogenic forcing to develop meso scale banding of precipitation by Thursday afternoon/evening. Initial precipitation will likely evaporate before reaching the ground helping to moisten the near surface layer. Then once the dry layer is removed, precipitation will start to reach the ground. With the point forecast soundings showing a sub-freezing layer through the entire column for nearly all sites by Thursday afternoon/evening P-type will be snow, except maybe a period of IP (sleet) right along the coast. Expect highs near freezing along and N of I-10 and in the mid 30’s south of I-10 Thursday night: Upper level trough moves toward/across Texas depending on which model you follow (GFS is the fastest with the ECMWF the slower and the GFS ensembles nearly splitting the difference). The faster GFS produces a quick shot of snow while the slower ECMWF and CMC would produce impressive snowfall totals across all of coastal Texas. Slower solution would allow greater time for the air mass to moisten and a longer period of meso scale snow banding to develop with higher snowfall rates. Surface layer will be in the mid to upper 20’s so what falls will accumulate and after days of sub-freezing temperatures the ground is going to be very cold. GFS shows best snowfall accumulation along a line from Victoria to W of Corpus Christi to McAllen on the order of 2-4 inches in this area. Still too early to be certain on any kind of accumulations as there are questions with moisture quality and how far inland the deeper moisture penetrates. This potential event has similarities to both the Dec 04 snowstorm and the snow event in Dec 1989 with the position of the upper and surface features. I am a little concerned about the amount of moisture available (usually it is the other way around, we do not have the cold air), but the models have been trending wetter with more QPF with each run adding confidence that something will fall later this week. Friday: Winter weather event will likely be ongoing Thursday night-Friday with potential for snow and some accumulations. Will go well below GFS guidance on highs and keep temperatures at or below freezing given falling precipitation, clouds, and possible snow accumulations for all areas including the coastal areas. Precipitation should gradually end from west to east Friday as the upper level trough moves over E TX and into LA allowing lift to decrease. Should the slower ECMWF and CMC models verify the best chances for snow will be on Friday and Friday night. Preparations: Residents across Texas should take the last warm day today to make the needed preparations for an extended period of cold weather. Protect/shelter sensitive tropical vegetation, hours of sub-freezing temperatures will damage or kill unprotected sensitive plants. Advective nature of the freeze with strong north winds will reduce the “greenhouse effect” of wrapping plants, so make sure coverings are strongly fastened with multiple layers. Wrap exposed outside pipes and disconnect all water hoses from exterior wall connects. Turn off sprinkler systems and cover back flow preventer pipes which suffered greatly in the freeze last January. It might be a good idea to shut off the water supply to the entire sprinkler system to prevent freezing and bursting of the back flow pipes. Interior pipes should be fine with this event, but to be on the safe side open exterior facing cabinets to allow house warmth against the interior plumbing. Pets and livestock should be sheltered is possible. Hours of sub-freezing temperatures and wind chills ranging from the single digits to teens will produce highly uncomfortable conditions for animals exposed for long periods of time. Travel: Dangerous/life threatening conditions will be developing over portions of W TX into the central plains tonight/Tuesday with full scale blizzard conditions as far south as southern OK. Surface travel is strongly discouraged in this region as significant snowfall and strong north winds of 30-40mph will blow and drift snow likely closing interstates and stranding vehicles. Temperatures over parts of OK and the TX panhandle will fall below zero with wind chills as low as -35 degrees making exposure to the outside air extremely dangerous. Aviation travel will likely be heavily impacted on Tuesday as major airports across the Midwest and plains struggle against heavy snow, low visibilities, and very cold air. Both Chicago and DFW will likely have major weather impacts/delays which will ripple into the rest of the system. <BR clear=all> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 New NAM crushes Wichita Falls, general support 5 to 10 inch snows from SREFs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 New NAM crushes Wichita Falls, general support 5 to 10 inch snows from SREFs... Interesting 24 hours coming up with lots to track! 12z GFS looks to continue the trend of hammering the area up near Wichita Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 From our Pro Met at HCFCD... 12z GFS is a bit slower, but still dry. McAllen to Corpus are setting up as the best locations for snow accumulations...For my backyard I need the trough to dig a little more, and a bit slower...for SE TX, it just needs to be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z GGEM is wetter for everybody from here to SE TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If Brownsville gets accumulating snow, it will be the 2nd time in just 6 years that they do so... compare it to the whole 20th century when that never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 In the longer range, 0zEuro and 12z CMC build a 1060mb cold high and mid/upper level pattern would unload it over the CONUS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I tend not to trust the Canadian, and I suspect it would change coastal counties to rain PDQ, but it would be epic for the I-35 college towns like San Antonio, Austin and San Marcos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Warnings are flying to the NW of the Metroplex and we continue to holdout for a bit of a SE trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS at DFW has upgraded portions of the watch area to a warning calling for near Blizzard conditions. Rest of the watch area will likely get upgraded to a warning or a Winter Weather Advisory on the afternoon package. Tremendous icing potential in the DFW Metro. They have lowered overnigh lows into the 20s tonight. The 12z GFS MOS temperature numbers are shocking keeping highs in the teens on Wednesday with lows in the single digits on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always nice to see your local get updated to this: Tuesday: Snow and sleet before noon, then a chance of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 20 by noon. Wind chill values between 2 and 12. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Euro is colder for my backyard (-10 with -12C 850mb very close by)...that might be doom for frozen precip because of very dry surface, though. I still expect a couple of flakes flying by -16C in MX is a very rare occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking good for TX Coastal areas for Thursday/Friday in Euro world. Some mighty cold air heading S again next Monday/Tuesday as well for a repeat performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking good for TX Coastal areas for Thursday/Friday in Euro world. Some mighty cold air heading S again next Monday/Tuesday as well for a repeat performance. Almost two tenths on the Euro, but spread out over 18 hours, I fear sublimation could rob me of my dusting. AccuWx PPV surface RHs in the 60s. But it is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Day 9 and 10 of the Euro shows another cold wave with subfreezing down to the Rio Grande valley....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Day 9 and 10 of the Euro shows another cold wave with subfreezing down to the Rio Grande valley....again. Could that little dimple in the height lines over New Mexico be an underforecast SW bringing more snow to Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Could that little dimple in the height lines over New Mexico be an underforecast SW bringing more snow to Texas? maybe ... FR DZ/RA for the lower Rio Grande Valley (heights are too high)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Almost two tenths on the Euro, but spread out over 18 hours, I fear sublimation could rob me of my dusting. AccuWx PPV surface RHs in the 60s. But it is a step in the right direction. It is going to snow again in Houston Repeat after me It is going to snow again in Houston See, now doesn't that make you feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 It is going to snow again in Houston Repeat after me It is going to snow again in Houston See, now doesn't that make you feel better He's just trying to imitate Josh. And it’s not working at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't think I've ever seen a zone forecast for the Houston area look like this... Snow and severe weather, all in the same week Tonight...Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent in the evening increasing to 40 percent after midnight. Tuesday...Mostly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning... Then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Very windy. Highs in the mid 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in the afternoon. South winds 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest and increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent in the morning decreasing to 20 percent in the afternoon. Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Wednesday...Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly cloudy. Much colder. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 9 to 19 in the morning. Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Thursday...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Thursday Night...Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Friday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Friday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s. Saturday And Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Warmer. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows around 40. Sunday...Partly cloudy. Not as cool. Highs in the lower 60s. Sunday Night And Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 60s. Awesome blossom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It appears as though the freezing line is already further S at 21z than depicted by either the 18z NAM or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't think I've ever seen a zone forecast for the Houston area look like this... Snow and severe weather, all in the same week This is looking more and more like an epic week for Texas weather nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Warnings flying for the Metroplex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where ever in North Texas, including DFW Metro area, there is 1/4 of an inch or greater ice on the roadways, expect it to be around through at least Friday. That is IF temperatures can climb enough above freezing to do some substantial melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey Jorge. Take a look at 2/12/60 as an analog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey Jorge. Take a look at 2/12/60 as an analog... Pattern looks similar, but it's colder this time around and there's no -NAO like back then. This time we came from a -EPO pattern plus we have a very strong PV, hence the very cold air. In 1960, it just amplified from a flatter pattern...Pacific air was mixed in with Canadian air. After that date an -EPO pattern arose...let's see if that happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Op GFS has been faster with the trough than all the ensemble members for at least 3 runs. The ensemble, the Euro and the GGEM are in a lot better agreement. The slower progression of the trough translates into a wetter pattern to it's east (C001 is the OP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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