bubba hotep Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Some nice changes at h5 on the 18z NAM. Also, first watches in Texas go up and the winners are our friends out in the El Paso area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Some nice changes at h5 on the 18z NAM. I noticed it slowed the onset of precipitation down a few hours, allowing for the colder air to get in here and provide one hell of a winter storm in North Texas. A bit off topic, but the OUN office is in the process of issuing a PDS Winter Storm Watch/Warning for their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Winter storm advisories come in 'Particularly Dangerous Situation' flavor now? They think so, anyway... FXUS64 KOUN 302032AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 .DISCUSSION... POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS... AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE -15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I noticed it slowed the onset of precipitation down a few hours, allowing for the colder air to get in here and provide one hell of a winter storm in North Texas. A bit off topic, but the OUN office is in the process of issuing a PDS Winter Storm Watch/Warning for their CWA. What is your thoughts on precip type David around DFW? I think mostly sleet, but no doubt some freezing rain and snow too. Considerable blowing snow on the backside of this possible with those winds. What about possiblities of convective type frozen precip with thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Brownsville, Corpus and Houston have added -SN/-ZR to the forecast for Thursday and Friday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is your thoughts on precip type David around DFW? I think mostly sleet, but no doubt some freezing rain and snow too. Considerable blowing snow on the backside of this possible with those winds. What about possiblities of convective type frozen precip with thunder? Right now I'm still playing it conservative. HPC has mentioned some initatlzation errors with the 12Z NAM. Although the 18Z NAM seems to have corrected that slightly, I'm going to wait until 0Z with the new upper air data before making a judgement call. It's gonna be close though. I do expect we will get some wintery precip, but I'm not sure how significant the impacts will be here in the metroplex. Saying that, just northwest of Fort Worth (say Decatur) I expect there will be some major issues. There are several factors which could improve those chances for us, I've listed the top two below. 1) Shallow cold air is able to get into the metroplex ahead of what the models are showing 2) Precipitation is delayed or lasts longer then expected I've been staring at data all day, but the fact is that we won't have a 'locked in' idea until we get the entire storm sampled tonight. I've seen plenty of storms in the past two years that have ended up slightly colder then expected which have caused major issues after the sounding grid was able to get a complete picture on the storm. Two storms that come to mind are the February 2010 storm and the January 9th storm. Both ended up looking like rain until the models got the sounding data and ended up changing a few things. That's what I'm waiting for. I plan on making my first call for impacts later tonight. Also, Fort Worth has added snow into the grids for Friday while mentioning another possible snow event for Friday in their Fire AFD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul_B Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hello everyone, been lurking here for awhile... Living just outside of Decatur, I really don't like the sounds of that. Also noticed that the new NWS forecasts that just came out for our area (Paradise) are the coldest I've seen in a very long time. The big question now is what will the precipitation type be here, freezing rain, sleet, snow, or all of the above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hello everyone, been lurking here for awhile... Living just outside of Decatur, I really don't like the sounds of that. Also noticed that the new NWS forecasts that just came out for our area (Paradise) are the coldest I've seen in a very long time. The big question now is what will the precipitation type be here, freezing rain, sleet, snow, or all of the above? Fort Worth is in the process of issuing a winter storm watch for your area as I type this up. The primary type will likely be a sleet/freezing rain mixture, with a transition over to snow. Honestly, I can't confidently tell you how much yet. If the 850 MB low shifts 30 miles southeast, you'd end up with more snow. If the cold air arrives earlier then models are currently showing, then you could start out with freezing rain earlier. I guess the best answer I can give you is 'all of the above'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1,150 Words... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 412 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 .DISCUSSION... AN INCREDIBLY ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS COMING UP AND THERE IS LOTS TO DISCUSS TODAY. FIRST OFF...WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH AREA AND CURRENTLY BISECTS THE CWA WITH VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AS THE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT. FRONT SHOULD PULL UP STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS GO CALM AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FALL TO ZERO. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT NW LATE TONIGHT THIS FOG SHOULD BUILD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. THINK FOG WILL TRANSITION TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE METROPLEX BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH TOMORROW BUT PREFER THE NAM FORECAST WHICH STALLS IT OUT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE CWA WITH 70S AND SUN IN THE SOUTH AND 40S AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. OTHER MODELS MIX OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND SHOW MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH BUT NAM IS SUPERIOR IN THESE SITUATIONS AND HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO NEVADA WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD TEXAS AND SHOULD CROSS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY SHEARED TOMORROW NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE TO THE SOUTH OF I-20. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR INCLUSION OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS THERE TOO. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH IS STILL DEVELOPING OVER WEST- CENTRAL CANADA WILL BEGIN TO HEAD SOUTH. PRESSURE RISES IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL OCCUR AND WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN...THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL UNDERGO INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS...AIDING IN STRONG LIFT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL IMPORT SUBFREEZING AIR INTO THE NW ZONES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM TUESDAY...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR. RAINFALL RATES MAY BE INTENSE AND RAIN DROPS WILL BE VERY WARM INITIALLY DUE TO 850 TEMPS OF 5-10C. IN ADDITION GROUND AND SURFACE OBJECT TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO COOL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE THE SURFACE TEMP MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING WHILE RAIN IS OCCURRING...BUT VERY LITTLE WILL ACTUALLY FREEZE...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL TEMPS GET INTO THE 20S WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. HOWEVER ONCE SURFACE TEMPS GET INTO 20S THINK THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET WITH 925 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C. THE PRIMARY MESSAGE IS THAT WE EXPECT SLEET TO BE THE DOMINANT AND PROBLEM WINTER PRECIP TYPE...AND IT MAY BE HEAVY ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2-3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...WET ROADS/BRIDGES SHOULD FREEZE OVER. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO MINERAL WELLS TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE LINE. THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF MID 20S BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. JUST TO THE SE OF THE WATCH /INCLUDING THE METROPLEX/ A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ONE NOW. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAIN WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS...BUT ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH ICING DUE TO WARM RAIN/OBJECT TEMPS. ONCE THE TRANSITION TO SLEET OCCURS THINK WET BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL START TO ICE OVER. SLEET ACCUMS IN THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE 1/4 OR LESS. THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHEN THE LIFT SHUTS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS/STABILIZES THE AIR MASS. SOME LINGERING AND WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW ACCUMS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE COLD TEMPS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELLS IN MANY YEARS...BUT THIS HARD THING TO QUANTIFY SINCE WE HAVE HAD A SINGLE NIGHT/S LOW TEMP COLDER LAST YEAR THAN ANYTHING CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED COLD SPELL WITH LOTS OF WIND. AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF SUBFREEZING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED. PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR WELL SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH -14 TO -6 DEG C IN THE CWA. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS COMPARABLE TO THE COLD SPELL IN JAN 1997 WHEN SEVERAL DAYS BELOW FREEZING OCCURRED. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTY. WIND CHILLS SHOULD REACH SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH BELOW 0 VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. WINDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND NORTH OF I-20. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE NW ZONES...BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 20 NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH. TEENS FOR LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS. THE WINDS SHOULD FINALLY COME DOWN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD WANE FOR SOME SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPOSED PIPES MAY NEED TO BE WRAPPED DUE TO THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS COLD SPELL. FINALLY WE HAVE BEEN INTERNALLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. BASICALLY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEAVES AN UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FLASHES OF BRINGING THIS LOW THROUGH IN TACT FRI-SUN. MOST HAVE NOW SETTLED ON BRINGING THIS THROUGH IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME NOW...BUT FEW ARE VERY BULLISH WITH MOISTURE PROFILES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE CHRISTMAS DEC 2004 SNOWSTORM IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND MODELS SHOWED THAT LOW HAVING LITTLE MOISTURE TOO UNTIL IT WAS TOO LATE. EITHER WAY WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS SYSTEM TO SEE WHERE IT TRACKS... AND BELIEVE IF THE 500 MB PATTERN VERIFIES LIKE THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW...IT WILL FIND THE MOISTURE. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. TR.92 && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul_B Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And yes, the winter storm watch has now been issued northwest of Ft. Worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Brownsville, Corpus and Houston have add -SN/-ZR to the forecast for Thursday and Friday now. yeah. flurries officially in the forecast for CLL. you gotta start somewhere... still not too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hgx says 19F thurs night for CLL. gross. Don't worry The 90s and dews in the 70s will be back soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeah. flurries officially in the forecast for CLL. you gotta start somewhere... still not too excited. You've never been in these parts for an 'event'. We've waited on you to return, so enjoy. Those howling N winds will remind you of MSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Brownsville, Corpus and Houston have added -SN/-ZR to the forecast for Thursday and Friday now. So has Austin/San Antonio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 We have some hailers N and E of Metro Houston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We need some unapologetic weenie posters for Texas... so here goes, 00z will be huge for the DFW area! Oh, and if 00z doesn't deliver then we can always be reminded that its not over until 00z tomorrow night! From this mornings DFW discussion: FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS OUR SHORTWAVE NOW LIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN OLD MEXICO AND THE SRN BIG BEND/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH IS A MORE SRN TRACK THAN SEEN 24 HRS AGO ON ALL MODEL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We need some unapologetic weenie posters for Texas... so here goes, 00z will be huge for the DFW area! It will hail then freeze then we'll have the biggest ice storm ever!!1!1 With snow after!!1!! How much for my back yard??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul_B Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We need some unapologetic weenie posters for Texas... so here goes, 00z will be huge for the DFW area! Oh, and if 00z doesn't deliver then we can always be reminded that its not over until 00z tomorrow night! From this mornings DFW discussion: FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS OUR SHORTWAVE NOW LIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN OLD MEXICO AND THE SRN BIG BEND/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH IS A MORE SRN TRACK THAN SEEN 24 HRS AGO ON ALL MODEL RUNS. The 00z NAM Is the biggest run in the history of all computer models! That work? Seriously, what I'm hoping is that it shows more snow than ice for our area. I believe it will continue the trend of being colder, just don't want the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For Dallas, this will be a freezing rain and sleet event (mostly sleet), hardly any snow, if any. 0z NAM not showing us more love, perhaps enough to ice up the roadways with a glaze to maybe two tenths, but probably not enough to warrant a winter storm warning (0.25 or more). However, there is still hope that the models are too slow with the freeze line which would change things a bit. 0z GFS look a lot more promising for 0.25 inches or greater of sleet across portions of the Metroplex with convective bands possible and surface temps in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wind chill is going to be stunning...ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For Dallas, this will be a freezing rain and sleet event (mostly sleet), hardly any snow, if any. 0z NAM not showing us more love, perhaps enough to ice up the roadways with a glaze to maybe two tenths, but probably not enough to warrant a winter storm warning (0.25 or more). However, there is still hope that the models are too slow with the freeze line which would change things a bit. 00z NAM wasn't all bad but wasn't overly great either. I think there is still room for some trends in our favor, esp. since we are talking 30 or 40 mile shifts making big differences for the DFW area. All eyes will be on the cold air and the models are notorious for being off with the timing of that. One thing I was wondering about is what, if any, impact the position of the front that pushed through today will have on things? Once it starts to retreat, what if it pulls up short of the DFW area and instead of getting up into the upper 50s we only reach the low 50s tomorrow afternoon? Other than keeping temps down it also seems like it could play a role in where convection setups and how fast the cold air spills in. Any of the more knowledgeable posters have any thoughts on this? Or will I just be wasting my time tomorrow nowcasting that in addition to watching the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wind chill is going to be stunning...ouch... And it looks like the 00z NAM and GFS have trended a tad colder at the surface for Tuesday. Either way it is going to be brutal out with wind chills dipping into the single digits on Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Interesting... Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 1008 PM CST sun Jan 30 2011 Update... after a busy afternoon...a fairly quiet night is in store tonight. The upper level trough is now advancing into Louisiana and weak upper level ridging is occurring over North Texas. The cold front has pushed completely through our County Warning Area and is farther south than previously thought. On the kgrk radar...the front is still advancing south into central and southeast Texas. The short range models have not quite picked up on its location but the RUC is now pretty close with its placement of the front. The front will likely stall across central and southeast Texas tonight and remain nearly stationary there into Monday. Because of this...have removed the mention of fog in North Texas except for in our 4 southeastern counties in case the front does retreat a little overnight into those counties and did reduce the wording to just patchy fog. The change in the front/S position also affects overnight lows across the southeast. Elsewhere...temperatures are falling faster than previously forecast so made adjustments to the overnight lows across much of the area. The overnight lows were the biggest challenge of the night. The challenge with the temperatures is the return of stratus to much of the region. 925 and 850 mb winds will remain southerly overnight allowing for a return of stratus and maybe some light drizzle. This stratus is already developing across central Texas and will likely be advancing into the southern portions of North Texas before midnight. Tonight/S temperature forecast is a delicate balance between the amount of radiational cooling that will occur before the stratus moves in and caps the temperatures. Last significant change to tonight/S forecast is to remove probability of precipitation from but did leave a 10 pop with isolated thunder through midnight south of a Cameron to Oakwood line. The short range models indicate that the front currently across central and southeast Texas will not retreat north much on Monday. Even though they have the frontal position displaced...agree that there is not much to force the front to retreat tomorrow. Therefore...have lowered high temperatures tomorrow across North Texas with the biggest change to the temperatures across the southern half of North Texas. This results in a nearly 10 degree temperature drop for tomorrow/S forecasted highs across our southern half. We will be reassessing tomorrow/S temperatures as the remaining 00z data arrives but wanted to indicate the trend with the update. And finally...the new model data that we have received so far agrees with the current forecast for Monday night and Tuesday thus no changes will be made to the forecast for those days or to the watch. We will be assessing the remaining 00z data as it arrives but no changes will be made tonight. 82/jld This makes a little bit of a difference for us regarding soil temps and possible residual heat for any potential frozen precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GFS has a band of very light snow or flurries moving through the Houston area on friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GFS has a band of very light snow or flurries moving through the Houston area on friday... 0.04 inches liquid equivalent. Add three or four tenths, and I've got an excuse for a 3 day Super Bowl weekend... CRP and VCT, closer to a tenth across 12 hours, I smell cool U-Tube if it verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just spent the better half of two hours writing up my latest thoughts on the Tuesday Event. I'm still seeing small discrepancies that lead to a big difference here in D/FW, but for now, I'll lean with the majority and go with that as my official forecast. However, If anyone wants to take a look at the 0Z 4 KM WRF from NOAA, you might see what I'm talking about. http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/01/30/212011-winter-storm-discussion-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tuesday morning, not very unstable low, but some mid level instability and darn impressive wind energy, could be interesting in HOU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't worry The 90s and dews in the 70s will be back soon enough! i sure as hell better be gone by then. You've never been in these parts for an 'event'. We've waited on you to return, so enjoy. Those howling N winds will remind you of MSP... well, i was back for two weeks and got little more than a bout of cold followed by some slightly tolerable temps. i feel like i haven't seen an interesting weather "event" of any kind since i started down there. i'm ready for svr wx or snow or anything out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 HGX discussion for later in the week... THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING WITH CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/CANADA BORDER WITH A JET STREAK COMING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF IT OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ALL OF THE MODELS DROP THIS TROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY WED. THE MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING THE TROUGH OVER THE S ROCKIES WITH THE GFS/NAM BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL CAMPS BUT CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. BY 12Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH OVER C TX WITH STRONG QG FORCING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER SE TX. THE SAME CAN BE SAID WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BUT DELAYED BY 6 TO 12 HRS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP BANDS TO FORM OVER SE TX. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES EVOLVE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROZEN PRECIP. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH AND WHEN THE BEST LIFT OCCURS COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING AT FIRST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULBING OCCURRING WITH THE STRONG ASCENT MAY HELP ELIMINATE THIS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION BUT FOR NOW PRECIP WILL BE KEPT AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TO START...SNOW OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE/WHEN FREEZING TEMPS OCCUR...WITH A MIX AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRI. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST AS DETAILS WILL CHANGE AND WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 One of the more exciting weeks of winter weather I can remember... Third season in a row for accumulating snow? ...ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A HARD FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS NEED TO MAKE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY AND LIFE FROM THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PIPES NEED TO BE PROTECTED TO PREVENT BURSTING. PLANTS AND TENDER VEGETATION WILL NEED PROTECTION FROM THE HARSH COLD. ENSURE THAT ELDERLY PEOPLE AND CHILDREN ARE ALSO WELL PROTECTED AND HAVE SHELTER FROM THE COLD CONDITIONS. NWS METEOROLOGISTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR A POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE EVENT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPE LARGELY DEPENDS ON MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE MET. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES AND FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE HAZARDS FROM ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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