Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Suppression city on the NAM. Perhaps the GFS was on to something back on the 17th after all... Edit to add clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18Z NAM gives North Texas several inches of snow, but still does not seem to be determining a freezing rain area very well. This looks like a pretty substantial hit for the area, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Corpus going with hard freezes likely and highs not getting out of the 30's mid to late week. They mention some over running clouds and perhaps some moisture giving some credit to the Canadian. Midland/Odessa is issuing an SWS regarding the much colder air and mentions light precip throughout the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 12z MOS guidance indicates a minimum temperature next week of 19 degrees at IAH, and those numbers are usually warm biased towards climo that period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's nice to come here and verify that a significant snow/ice in Dallas during Super Bowl run-up week isn't some crazy idea that only I imagined. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18Z GFS verbatim doesn't have the Metroplex ice storm. What is more cool, the 60ºF isodrosotherm is near HOU, and while SWODY1 leans towards elevated around here, I think in January if we get above 60, things could get at least potentially interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 And out fly the SWS... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 410 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-301100- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER... STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS... MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA... HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN... ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN... BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON 410 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ...CHANCE OF ICE AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW THAT MAY FALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ENOUGH ACCUMULATIONS TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PROLONGED COLD WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR LIVESTOCK AND OUTDOOR PETS. EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE AND BURST IF THEY ARE NOT PROPERLY INSULATED. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE FRONT...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TV AND RADIO...AND OUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18Z GFS verbatim doesn't have the Metroplex ice storm. What is more cool, the 60ºF isodrosotherm is near HOU, and while SWODY1 leans towards elevated around here, I think in January if we get above 60, things could get at least potentially interesting. Just a general note, not in response to your comment. I'd be more willing to trust the NAM and other higher resolution models at this point, considering the shallow nature of this arctic air. FWD noted the same thing in yesterday's afternoon discussion.Obviously the southern offices are trusting more in the NAM. For those who have not read it, the San Angelo AFD is quite interesting this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just a general note, not in response to your comment. I'd be more willing to trust the NAM and other higher resolution models at this point, considering the shallow nature of this arctic air. FWD noted the same thing in yesterday's afternoon discussion.Obviously the southern offices are trusting more in the NAM. For those who have not read it, the San Angelo AFD is quite interesting this afternoon. Hopefully wall_cloud will pop in and offer some opinions regarding this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just a general note, not in response to your comment. I'd be more willing to trust the NAM and other higher resolution models at this point, considering the shallow nature of this arctic air. FWD noted the same thing in yesterday's afternoon discussion.Obviously the southern offices are trusting more in the NAM. For those who have not read it, the San Angelo AFD is quite interesting this afternoon. The word 'verbatim' sort of was meant to imply it may not be right. And it is the 18Z GFS. On the other hand, since the change to the WRF as the main meso model, I think its been a step backwards beyond 2 days. At this range, I'd lean towards the GFS but remember it tends to bias warm (and be late on frontal passage) because of coarser resolution when shallow cold airmasses are involved. THe 12Z GFS, adjusted this way, is potentially ugly for DFW. I'm letting my bitterness about cold and not freezing/frozen likely in HOU area leak through. I hate dry cold. Or rainy cold. I'm not discounting some Winter Wx fun for the Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am growing concerned about significant icing potential in the DFW Metroplex, based on 12z GFS and 18z Nam. Perhaps accumulations of 1/2 an inch or greater in parts of the Metroplex. Still not sold on very much on a lot of snow for the area, more concerned with icing. This airmass is going to be very shallow, at least during the majority of the precipitation. This all points to a period of freezing rain quickly switching to sleet. I bet sleet ends up being the predominate precip type. I cannot remember a setup like this with this kind of bitter cold slipping southward and this potent of a low interacting with the cold air that DFW did not pick up some sort of wintry precipitation in the last 30 years. The NWS is calling for the coldest air in a few years, but last January (2010) we reached 13°F at DFW, and I think we can do that here again. For it to be the coldest in years, I would like temps to get to 10°F or below. The last time we hit that cold was 8°F in February 1996. Not quite sure that we can get that cold this time. However, anything is possible if we get snow/ice on the ground and a good radiational cooling setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1015 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141-301130- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON- ELLIS-COMANCHE- 1015 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS... ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 1ST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS WITH QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IS FORECASTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A WINTER MIX TO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUT WHEN THE SUB- FREEZING AIR WILL ARRIVE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO ROCKWALL TO SULPHUR SPRINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND OR SNOW ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THIS SAME AREA BUT THE AMOUNT OF ICE IS STILL BEING DETERMINED. HOWEVER...SOME MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST. THE FORECAST IS STILL BEING ASSESSED WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN AND WITH SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT ARE STILL BEING DETERMINED AND WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS suggests this will not be our last Arctic Intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Canadian is at it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No school Tuesday in Dallas, if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh my...the GFS, the GGEM, but especially the Euro...gawd (also the Ukie is on board) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Snow a definite possibility from NE MX (including Monterrey) all the way to HOU and even C and NE TX with the setup depicted by the Euro/Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Snow a definite possibility from NE MX (including Monterrey) all the way to HOU and even C and NE TX with the setup depicted by the Euro/Ukie I'm SOOO hoping this verifies for you and all your fropa-loving friends down there! What a thrill that would be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm SOOO hoping this verifies for you and all your fropa-loving friends down there! What a thrill that would be... Thanks! Probably no more than a few flakes, even if that, but that would be something extraordinary. Heck, this will be our first <32F of the season (and the first since 2004, if I remember correctly ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like a busted forecast for today’s severe weather event as the Upper Low is slower and not as strong as progged. I wonder how many busted forecasts lie ahead regarding the timing of the California storm? It does appear the frontal boundary is moving faster than forecasted earlier. It smells like a changeable situation to me. We will see. Hopefully the 12Z NCEP guidance with some RECON data will provide some answers to the finer details. Additional RECON missions are scheduled for today and tomorrow. SPC already has a Slight Risk in place for Eastern TX and points E for late Monday/early Tuesday. Good luck everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 400 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 TXZ248>257-301800- ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY- INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS... SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR... MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN... PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND... LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA 400 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...MASSIVE COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK... A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RAPIDLY PLUNGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND INTO TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO POUR INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S DUE TO THE MASSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S WITHIN ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITHIN STARR...HIDALGO...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTY. THE ENTIRE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A FREEZE WARNING OR HARD FREEZE WARNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THOSE TIMES. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND ARE ADVISED TO DEVELOP PLANS TO PROTECT PEOPLE...PLANTS...PETS...AND PIPES FROM THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Trending wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, Jorge. Brownsville discussed the delima this morning... THE MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE GEM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL COMING IN WITH SERIOUS TIMING DIFFERENCES AND DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST AND MOST NORTHWARD WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE THE GEM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GEM WITH THE OVERALL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GEM BEING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. SO WILL GO WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH THESE MODELS KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED EAST OF THE TX COASTLINE OVER THE GULF OF MEX. SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A PROBLEM WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING PCPN. HOWEVER IF THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND CLOSER TO THE GEM SOLUTION THERE MAY BE A NEED TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF POPS IN THE LONGER RANGE. IF THIS OVERRUNNING PCPN SOLUTION DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WORDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well well. What do we have here? A faster progression of the boundary?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wall_cloud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well well. What do we have here? A faster progression of the boundary?... Nah, models have had that for days. This is the surface reflections of the southern stream wave that was to result in TSRA across TX last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nah, models have had that for days. This is the surface reflections of the southern stream wave that was to result in TSRA across TX last night. Yeah, I see temps will rebound somewhat tomorrow. Just thought it was interesting to see those gusty N winds across OK and noting pressure rises in the N Plains. Good to see you around, wall_cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is that trend, Jorge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 To my untrained eye, there is nothing overly exciting about the 12z NAM or GFS verbatimly speaking. However, I wouldn't want to be on the hook for that forecast! It looks we will be right on the fence and any number of factors could tip the metroplex into a morning rush hour madhouse. I wonder if the poor model performance on the shortwave today is a sign of things to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 The moisture trend late week continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 flying back through dfw tomorrow evening. should get through before the rain. figures that i'd miss the weekend of really nice weather. 75F now in c-stat but unfortunately no rain so far. hgx says 19F thurs night for CLL. gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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