Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's looking active tonight into tomorrow for S/Central/SE TX. HGX is talking about 2-3 inches of heavy rainfall... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION THIS EVENING...BEFORE EMERGING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH TX LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/ SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER TX WILL ALLOW PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS TX DUE TO A STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT. INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT-LRD BY 00Z...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORM SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS AFTER 06Z...POSING A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE RISK AREA. ..HART/COHEN.. 01/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's looking active tonight into tomorrow for S/Central/SE TX. HGX is talking about 2-3 inches of heavy rainfall... Yeah, a nice little event has brewed up while everyone was watching for the cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, a nice little event has brewed up while everyone was watching for the cold next week. Yeah. We have the Chevron Marathon here in Houston tomorrow morning. Needless to say it's looking wet and stormy for those running/watching that event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In a nice turn of events, the GFS is now the coldest, with the CMC and Euro being moister. The few data that I can gather from the Ukie is that it looks cold and moist, but not sure how much and if deep cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 And Dallas is closer to get some snow in the 06z GFS and NAM with the initial low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, Jorge. The UKMET and Euro and to some extent the Canadian wants to hold back enough energy that could make things interesting. At least the GFS is turning cold again. I think we are far from a done deal regarding any wintry weather chances regarding this storm and Arctic air mass. I noticed some tropical t storms E of HI with yet another U/A disturbance. The MJO may well throw a wrinkle or two in the forecasts in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS looks like good news for our Dallas friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS looks like good news for our Dallas friends. The GFS is certainly trending colder as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This storm is giving me a damn headache. It looks like the 12Z NAM is still cold, but introduces a dry-slot which cuts off precipitation just as the cold air arrives here in North Texas on Tuesday morning. That's certainly a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS is certainly trending colder as well... Yep, was the coldest model, and it just went colder . Major issues with crops, especially citrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 This storm is giving me a damn headache. It looks like the 12Z NAM is still cold, but introduces a dry-slot which cuts off precipitation just as the cold air arrives here in North Texas on Tuesday morning. That's certainly a real possibility. David, my concern is the front will be faster than progged setting up an icy mess for you folks in N TX and just perhaps Central TX as well. A very tricky forecast ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 David, my concern is the front will be faster than progged setting up an icy mess for you folks in N TX and just perhaps Central TX as well. A very tricky forecast ahead. That's definitely also a concern since this will be a shallow arctic airmas coming in, which the models always have issues handling. The fact the models are coming in colder is concerning. Having just looked at the GFS accumulated winter precip maps, it gives southern Oklahoma over 0.75 inches of ice. If that shifts south 50 to 100 miles, with winds being 15 to 20 MPH, we're going to have some major issues. Since we've not had a major ice storm in 5-8 years, drivers will undoubtedly manage to make this a icy hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm also getting a sneaky suspicion we see at least a Slight Risk for E TX/LA/MS in the warm sector with the warm front pushing N on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Unless we get the Baja low to dig south and move east faster, that looks like freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z CMC is definitely moister, and like the 0z Euro, it's a bit too slow...something more like 0z Ukie would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Unless we get the Baja low to dig south and move east faster, that looks like freezing rain. Yeah, but a lot of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, but a lot of it... Probably even plain rain... you are at +7C 850mb in that map. The warmest CMC run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't think any of the models, including the colder 12z GFS is resolving the shallow nature of this airmass well at all or the arrival time. If you look at the conditional rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain output from the 12z GFS it quickly turn the rain to snow without much sleet or freezing rain in between. Much of the conditional rain, I think will be freezing rain or more likely sleet that it is showing. The freeze line at the surface will likely be well ahead of the 0°C line at 850mb. Speaking of cold air, I bet we don't get out of the 20s for highs on Wednesday at DFW. Thursday morning has the potential of being around 10°F or lower at DFW if ideal radiative cooling sets up, especially if there is ice or snow on the ground. Temperatures will still be in the 30s for highs on Friday, albeit finally above freezing. 50°F as forecast by the NWS this morning on Friday is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here's my first discussion on the potential for a winter storm in Oklahoma and Texas. It's really looking quite interesting. http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/01/29/212011-winter-storm-potential-discussion-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice analysis, David. The Euro looks to be colder as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1243 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-292145- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO... ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG... BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS... BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS... SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY... PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES... CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS 1243 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ...MUCH COLDER WEATHER COMING NEXT WEEK... MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS COMING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR THAT AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BEFORE THE COLD WEATHER ARRIVES...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF A BURNET TO HONDO TO CATARINA LINE. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY IN AN AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 37 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING...SOME BRIEF PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BRIEF WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL END QUICKLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY ON TUESDAY A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM A DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW FREEZING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 40 AND LOW 40S OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S ACROSS ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONS TO PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR TENDER PLANTS...PIPES...AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR NEXT WEEKS COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS ADVISED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another artic intrusion, mere days after this one? ... Some GEFS members and it looks like the current Euro seem to like the idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another artic intrusion, mere days after this one? ... Some GEFS members and it looks like the current Euro seem to like the idea! Who opened the door in Siberia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Who opened the door in Siberia... -20C 850mb in TX panhandle....noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Brownsville not biting on those cold temps...yet... THE FRONT BRINGS IN THE EFFECTS OF A 1050 HIGH...WHICH BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES CRASH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF OVER 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 3 RUNS HAS SHAVED 20 DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. FOR ONCE...MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...FORECASTING A LOW BOTH MORNINGS OF 28 FOR BRO. THE LAST TIME BRO REACHED THAT MARK WAS CHRISTMAS DAY 2004. AM ALSO WORRIED THAT MODELS ARE GOING TO FLIP ON TEMPS AGAIN WITH NEXT RUN...SO HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPERED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR THE VALLEY...WITH A FREEZE STILL POSSIBLE FOR BKS/HBV CORRIDOR AND LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE RIVER. EVEN WITH ADJUSTED NUMBERS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE YEAR FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMEPRATURE FOR WEDNESDAY STILL EXPECTED AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Latest temp forecast for DFW by the NWS is calling for a low of 18°F with 25 to 30mph winds Tuesday night (wind chills near 0°F at times) and high of 27°F on Wednesday. These numbers are starting to look more realistic. They are down to 18°F for Thursday morning, but that is still too warm. I am calling for 12°F to 14°F right now for Thursday morning at DFW (colder in outlying areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So 18z NAM Holy S-it! Wrap around moisture with a 35 DBZ band of precip with D/FW in the 20's. That's pretty scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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