Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Texas/MX Obs And Discussion Thread.


Srain

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 973
  • Created
  • Last Reply

FYI: More Pacific Winter RECON ahead for Sunday...

NOUS42 KNHC 271700

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1200 PM EST THU 27 JANUARY 2011

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JANUARY 2011

WSPOD NUMBER.....10-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNASSSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:

A. P73/ 43.9N 172.3E(DROP 11)/ 30/1200Z

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest form DFW NWS office. Single digit cold possible in North Texas.

000

FXUS64 KFWD 272121

AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

321 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A NICE AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S. THE

WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AND

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 70 FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE

HAVENT HAD TEMPERATURES THIS WARM SINCE LATE DECEMBER. BY SATURDAY

NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST

AND WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LOCATIONS IN THIS REGION MAY PICK

UP AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.

BY SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER

WESTERN CANADA...ONCE AGAIN OPENING UP THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC

AIRMASS. A PIECE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX

IN NE CANADA WILL BREAK OFF AND ENTER THE NORTHERN US BY

MONDAY...SENDING A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR A VERY COLD

AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE

GFS IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT DO

NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO ITS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS

FAR OUT...MODELS TEND TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SHALLOW DEPTH

OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES AND ONE NEEDS TO PAY CLOSER ATTENTION TO THE

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AND BASE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM

PAST EXPERIENCES. CURRENT 850 TEMPS IN THE SOURCE REGION ARE IN

THE NEGATIVE 24C RANGE AND ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE 850 TEMPS

IN SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR -20C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE

TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST ARCTIC

AIRMASS ARE ACTUALLY COLDER WHEN WE SAW PROLONGED SURFACE

TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE GFS SEEMS

TO BE TOO SLOW AND TOO WARM WITH THE AIRMASS AND WILL STICK CLOSER

TO THE COLDER CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED

BY ALL MODELS TO ENTER TEXAS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE

REGION AND WHAT IF ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. THERE

ARE BASICALLY TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW THIS

MAY PLAY OUT. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION

OF THE TROUGH AND PROG A TUESDAY ARRIVAL. THIS ALLOWS AMPLE TIME

FOR THE COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE LIFT ARRIVES AND BOTH

SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH

OF NORTH TEXAS. THE CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET PROG A MUCH STRONGER

PIECE OF THE POLAR LOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY

MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...OUR PACIFIC PIECE OF ENERGY

WOULD QUICKLY BE SWEPT UP AROUND THE BIGGER SYSTEM AND ALL THE

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WOULD BE GONE BEFORE THE COLD

AIR ARRIVES. THE PRECIP WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIQUID...ENDING BY

TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...VERY COLD

TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND LOWS IN THE

SINGLE DIGITS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY

MORNING IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATTER

GROUP OF MODELS IS NOT USUALLY THE PREFERRED SET WHEN WE MAKE A

FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EVEN

WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AND HOW SIMILAR THIS GROUP IS...SOME WEIGHT

DEFINITELY IS GIVEN TO THIS DATA SET.

FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST

THE POSSIBILITIES OF WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...VERY

COLD AIR SEEMS LIKELY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS...WILL

WE SEE PRECIP AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IF FROZEN PRECIPITATION

WERE TO FALL...WE FEEL THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR

AND THAT THE SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE AN OPEN ENDED TROUGH...SNOW

WILL NOT BE LIKELY INITIALLY. IF PRECIP WERE TO LINGER LONGER THAN

EXPECTED...WE COULD SEE A FINAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE

EVERYTHING SHUTS OFF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ugh, it looks like there is no denying the fact that we are going to get some very cold air in here next week (so ready for an extended warm up!). Since we can't deny the cold we have to start pulling for a slower solution that delays the arrival of moisture into north central Texas on Tuesday. It looks like a blend of the EURO and GFS would give us our best shot at a wintry mix.

Taken verbatim it looks like the 12z GFS would be too warm but it drops about 0.50" QPF Tuesday afternoon / evening. The GFS looks to be a warm outlier so maybe we will see a cooling trend. Freezing rain / sleet / wet snow anyone?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe some good analogs for the upcoming week would be late January early February 1996, early February 1989, and February 23-25th, 2003? Although the 2003 produced significant winter weather, but temperatures were not as extreme as currently being progged, but 1996 definitely was. The last time DFW hit single digits was February 1996 of 8°F. That was 15 years ago, the longest stretch in our history were temps have not been that cold. On average we should be seeing temps in the single digits one out of every five years based on climatology. Of course, any snowcover next week will only aide in exacerbating the cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HGX this morning...the weekend is looking mighty wet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

550 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING CIRRUS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND

SHOULD MOST OF THE MORNING. A VERY PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL START MOVING EAST AND WILL TAP INTO

RATHER RICH GULF MOISTURE SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A

RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY

AND THEN LL MOISTURE RAMPS UP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH

RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM

WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT

LOOKING WET AS 1-1.4" PW ARRIVE WITH THE S/W SWEEPING THROUGH

AROUND SUNRISE...HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER. MODERATE WAA IN

PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIM BUT LI OF 0 TO -2 POSSIBLE/CAPE

LESS THAN 400 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF

THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS...GFS HITS THE NORTHERN CWA HARD AROUND

06Z SUN...ECMWF NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST 06-15Z (AND WITH BETTER

INSTABILITY) AND THE NAM CENTRAL 8-18Z. IN THIS FORECAST HAVE

FAVORED THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFTER

MIDNIGHT. RAINS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY

BY 10 AM FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL HAVE

SHRA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH

DAYTIME HEATING BUT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD

INHIBIT ANY LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE

AREA WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MORE SHOWERS. AN VERY COLD

AIRMASS WILL BE PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SHOULD BE

NEAR THE RED RIVER AROUND 00Z TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT COMING

THROUGH SETX TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

CONFIDENCE DROPS VERY QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. AT

PRESENT AM EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO DRY OUT BUT WITH CLOUD COVER

LINGERING WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH

COOLER THAN THE GFS. WAS INITIALLY INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF

BUT WITH THE BIG WAFFLE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW ON

TUESDAY HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE HUGELY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND

30S WILL BE LIKELY BUT WILL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY MORNING

BE THE COLDEST--PROBABLY THURSDAY BUT IT COULD END UP BEING FRIDAY

IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. BROAD UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT OVER

COLORADO GETS STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE

ALL OVER THE PLACE. A SECOND ISSUE IS HOW FAR SOUTH ANY FROZEN

PRECIP WILL GET. PREVIOUS RUNS WERE INDICATING SNOW COULD GET AS

FAR SOUTH AS I-10 BUT CURRENT SUITE OF 00Z RUNS KEEPS IT WELL

NORTH OF THE REGION. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY IN THE

FORECAST BUT THIS IS MOVING TARGET. STAY TUNED.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON

SATURDAY. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW

CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BAJA...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME

PROGRESSIVE/ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND REACH CENTRAL

TX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE

NORTHERN CA COAST LATE SATURDAY COULD YIELD COME ISOLATED TSTMS

MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS/OFFSHORE WATERS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT...

WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL TX

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS

WEST TX AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION/MOISTURE RETURN OTHERWISE OCCURS

ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST TX. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF

MORE CONSEQUENTIAL DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP

ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE

SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY/NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR NEAR/EAST OF A SHARPENING SURFACE

TROUGH/DRY LINE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE BASED STRONG/PERHAPS

SEVERE TSTMS IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL

MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAPPING INVERSION IN

THE MID LEVELS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY

DISCOUNTED AS WELL GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT

AGAIN THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN WITHIN A

MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IN ALL...BECAUSE OF SOME LARGE SCALE UNCERTAINTY AND UNKNOWNS

REGARDING THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN/CAPPING...WILL DEFER TO

SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR POTENTIAL INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE

PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 01/28/2011

post-32-0-04933200-1296216476.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cold air mass is on the move this morning. Temps in Nunavut have dropped considerably overnight (now -40+ range) and pressures are rising as well. The Polar Vortex is doing it's job in grabbing that Arctic air and pulling it S.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cold air mass is on the move this morning. Temps in Nunavut have dropped considerably overnight (now -40+ range) and pressures are rising as well. The Polar Vortex is doing it's job in grabbing that Arctic air and pulling it S.

It would be a shame that all the mid level disturbance out west didn't drop a little farther south. And then the CMC and Euro drop another round of mid level disturbance, but a little too late...:(

BTW, just for kicks, but the 0z CMC has me in the -14C 850mb...I think that would break the 1989 and 1983 records at that level (around -12C).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep. This is shaping up to be our Boxing Day Storm. As the model world turns.:arrowhead: At least the NAM looks a bit suppressed, fwiw...

;)

Now, to emulate our friends out east, let's have a look at the Korean, JMA, NOGAPS, FIM and take the best one for our backyards :D.

I like the trend with a stronger high building in Canada. 1050+ entering Montana?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

;)

Now, to emulate our friends out east, let's have a look at the Korean, JMA, NOGAPS, FIM and take the best one for our backyards :D.

I like the trend with a stronger high building in Canada. 1050+ entering Montana?

:rolleyes:

When a 130-kt cyclone smashes into Queensland next week, perhaps you might tear yourself from these icep*ssy fantasies and acknowledge it? Or is that asking too much of one of my own chase partners?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:rolleyes:

When a 130-kt cyclone smashes into Queensland next week, perhaps you might tear yourself from these icep*ssy fantasies and acknowledge it? Or is that asking too much of one of my own chase partners?

Hush. Go play in the snow. Your guilt trips are worthless here in our own little world. Don't you see we are watering this thread getting ready for Tropical Season.:P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want to take a Jebwalk in the snow, now that I know what a Jebwalk is.

Christmas Eve 2004, we were out of milk, it was snowing, the roads were just wet, the snow was not sticking even to lawns, just cars (and my plam fronds), and I walked to the convenience mart, maybe a thirty minute round trip, knowing the milk would be plenty cool on the way home, just to take a walk in Texas snow. It was like a Jebwalk, in its own way.

I can multi-task a QLD cyclone and a winter threat, although my gut (and the 12Z GFS) tell me this will just be another cold dreary semi-typical Houston January/Fberuary week coming up, with nothing memorable.

gfs_ten_120l.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hush. Go play in the snow. Your guilt trips are worthless here in our own little world. Don't you see we are watering this thread getting ready for Tropical Season.:P

I have a theory about someone who started reminiscing about the 1978 Mega-Blizzard when he lived on Long Island, someone who protests a little too vigorously that he has no interest in snow...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today's 12z runs not looking so good for ice or snow across North Texas with this event. Not sure I agree about holding up this cold air for that long. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. 12z CMC looks particularly odd. GFS is still way too warm.

The 12z guidance trended stronger and farther west with the longwave trough, toward the GFS solution...with the exception of the Ukie which is more progressive with the longwave trough. Because of this, the trough undercuts the artic high, delaying and weakening it a bit, compared to 0z guidance, and sending it farther west, while the S/W that rides the trough and is the source of NE TX precip screams past the region and misses the cold. The extrapolated NAM would probably be towards the less undercutting solutions. I think the GFS is weakening/shearing the first Pacific storm too fast, and the CMC is closing the mid/upper low a bit fast. A compromise between the Euro and GFS is more likely, but that would mean that the chances of wintry weather diminish with the first cold wave, but are more likely with the second wave.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z guidance trended stronger and farther west with the longwave trough, toward the GFS solution...with the exception of the Ukie which is more progressive with the longwave trough. Because of this, the trough undercuts the artic high, delaying and weakening it a bit, compared to 0z guidance, and sending it farther west, while the S/W that rides the trough and is the source of NE TX precip screams past the region and misses the cold. The extrapolated NAM would probably be towards the less undercutting solutions. I think the GFS is weakening/shearing the first Pacific storm too fast, and the CMC is closing the mid/upper low a bit fast. A compromise between the Euro and GFS is more likely, but that would mean that the chances of wintry weather diminish with the first cold wave, but are more likely with the second wave.

Which is exactly what some of the NWS TX offices are mentioning. (Corpus/Dallas)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shall we hug the DGEX...:lol:

What does the CRAS show?!? I thought our main issue up here would be the moisture just missing the cold air but the models have trended to somewhat warmer solutions for Monday night into Tuesday and not the other way around. Maybe the Nam and possibly the 18z GFS are the start of a trend? Or maybe we will get a surprise when the recon data is ingested for the 00z runs on Sunday...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hate cold unless there is freezing/frozen.

I've lost one orange, two lemon, an avocado, and a pygmy date palm already to the brutal Texas weather the past 11 years, my new orange tree has so far survived the freezes. My Washingtonia palms, they fear no cold weather. But my live oak, maybe it senses something, it has less leaf density than I ever remember in January.

Leaf density was low after Ike, but I attribute that to amazing adaptation, it lost few branches, it shed leaves easily to lower wind loading in hurricanes. I believe in God, but thank you, Charles Darwin. BTW, haven't bothered for a couple of years, but Jobe tree spikes, went from a 3 inch wide and 7 foot tall sapling to maybe 30 feet tall in a decade... Palms have been growing like weeds as well.

GFS Has a very light freeze (after colder mornings) Super Bowl Sunday around the Jerry Dome, I'd like real Winter weather, but I can settle for a freeze.

gfs_ten_204l.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z CMC looks pretty good, I'll wait for the better graphics , but it looks like wintry precip for parts of NE MX and deep S TX with the backside disturbance. Oh, and 1060+mb high :guitar:

Well, not that good...disturbance digs, but stalls. Maybe some freezing drizzle. Potential is there, though

f156.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...