Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Something like that would make happy a lot of Texans Yep. One more January 73 event in my lifetime and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well the 12Z Euro took a baby step toward slowing the short wave. Cold air looks to be a given at this point. Now will there be any moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z ECMWF is just ridiculous with the cold air next week. It has 534 dm line all the way into northern Mexico with 516 dm line in around DFW. Still dry though. Notice the 12z GFS was trending colder during this period as well, but still nowhere near as cold as the ECMWF. Quite interesting to see the ECMWF on the colder side of things. You hardly ever see this model that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z ECMWF is just ridiculous with the cold air next week. It has 534 dm line all the way into northern Mexico with 516 dm line in around DFW. Still dry though. Notice the 12z GFS was trending colder during this period as well, but still nowhere near as cold as the ECMWF. Quite interesting to see the ECMWF on the colder side of things. You hardly ever see this model that extreme. I don't see the heights being that low in the model... where are you looking at? Or do you mean thickness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Brownsville buying the GFS solution regarding the moisture...for now... BASED ON THE GFS...THE DRY FORECAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY AND LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS THE VERY LARGE UPPER LOW DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN AZ AND NM. BOTTOM LINE IS IT APPEARS THAT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN IN THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR BEYOND? THE ONE CAVEAT IS THE EURO IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT. IT BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO...BASICALLY COLDER BUT DRY. AM HEDGING WITH THE GFS BASED ON CURRENT PATTERN AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST INCLUDE ADJUSTING TEMPS DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BEST PRECIP OPPORTUNITIES FROM THE LATEST GFS RUN. WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARDS TUE AND WED BASED ON THE STRONG NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't see the heights being that low in the model... where are you looking at? Or do you mean thickness? I meant partial thicknesses, but you know, I think I was still looking at part of the 0z ECMWF run. The 12z is not nearly as cold. The way accuweather updates its models when they are coming in can be confusing. So strike my earlier post, that was based on the 0z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Midland/Odessa: BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT....THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A DIGGING NPAC LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH NEAR NV. AFTER WHICH...THE NWP MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE IT WILL END UP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS A BRIEF CUTOFF LOW WITH IT AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES IT EASTWARD OVER NM TUESDAY. THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES IT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WESTERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGARDLESS...ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT (GFS). THE ECMWF WAS PREVIOUSLY THE COLDEST SOLUTION...WITH RIDICULOUS 850MB TEMPS NEAR -15C OVER MAF TUESDAY. THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/COLDEST SOLUTION AND IS ALSO WET WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER FEATURE. WE HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND...WE HAVE LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS WELL CONSIDERING THE PREVIOUS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/UPSLOPE REGIME CURRENTLY PROGGED. THE EXTENDED WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IMPACTING THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I meant partial thicknesses, but you know, I think I was still looking at part of the 0z ECMWF run. The 12z is not nearly as cold. The way accuweather updates its models when they are coming in can be confusing. So strike my earlier post, that was based on the 0z ECMWF. ok, no prob. Yeah, 0z was crazy...12z wasn't that different, but it misses the connection --it's slower-- with some STJ energy. If we can have a partial phase...BAM! cold high would slide west, which would put us in the very cold side (like the 0z showed). If there's more energy entrained though...that means a slower more positive tilted trough which would mean a prolonged overruning event with a winter storm at the tail end...IOW, wintry precipitation for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z Euro ensembles are farther west than the op with the cold high, and is as cold or colder than the op for TX/MX (which is an amazing feat for an average 7+ days out, even colder than the 0z ensembles) and have a more more positive tilted averaged trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z Euro ensembles are farther west than the op with the cold high, and is as cold or colder than the op for TX/MX (which is an amazing feat for an average 7+ days out, even colder than the 0z ensembles) and have a more more positive tilted averaged trough. Keeps getting better and better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18z GFS is pretty wet up this way for next Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Looks like just short of 0.80" qpf with borderline temps... maybe rain changing to 2-4" of snow. I wonder if we can hold onto to that moisture and get a bit of a cooling trend going in the model. I'm going to hold off on investing in this until maybe 00z Sunday, esp. with the models being so flippy this winter. Now it’s back to keeping tabs on my old stomping grounds via the mid-Atlantic storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 0z GFS caved. It's colder and with a promising positive trough...but no precipitation...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 0z GFS caved. It's colder and with a promising positive trough...but no precipitation...yet Look at the 0z CMC and have a laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I see the Eruo gave over regarding no moisture. Interest level just went up a notch or two for the Jorge Storm... Austin/San Antonio: NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA MON-TUE...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THEREFORE A BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY FOR TUE-TUE EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THESE FEATURES BEFORE GOING WITH ANY TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE NOT GONE BELOW FREEZING UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN I HAVE POPS ENDING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT THIS TIME. Corpus Christi: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE SIMILAR WITH ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH THE UKMET FASTER INTO NEW MEXICO. ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BULK OF COLD AIR MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. WILL BROADBRUSH LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED 546 1000-500 THICKNESS LINE PERSISTING ALONG PORT LAVACA-LAREDO LINE WEDNESDAY. IF COLD AIR PUSH IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE REGION. WAY TOO EARLY TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LACKING BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Look at the 0z CMC and have a laugh Ol'e faithful GGEM, -10C 850mb 06z GFS flopped BTW... Let's see what does 12z bring us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Ol'e faithful GGEM, -10C 850mb 06z GFS flopped BTW... Let's see what does 12z bring us. I wouldn't put much faith in the GFS op. It has run-to-run issues lately and has been the least consistent model in regards to next week. I only care about the 0z and 12z runs of that model anyhow as they have the best ensemble support. GFS ensembles show the cold air as does most of the other models. Moisture is the key to me, not so much the cold air. Still cautious on how much moisture can make it into North Texas given the close proximity to the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 0Z ECMWF looked mighty interesting for TX/OK early next week. Also, having just looked at the 12Z NAM, if we actually had some upper-level support on Sunday, we might have had the potential for some strong convection in N. TX/S. OK along an advancing dryline with a dry punch coming in along the RR. If this was later in the year and about 10F higher with the moisture (NAM suggests Tds around 55F) it would be a classic day for potential tornadic sups. Just an interesting fact I thought I'd share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I wouldn't put much faith in the GFS op. It has run-to-run issues lately and has been the least consistent model in regards to next week. I only care about the 0z and 12z runs of that model anyhow as they have the best ensemble support. GFS ensembles show the cold air as does most of the other models. Moisture is the key to me, not so much the cold air. Still cautious on how much moisture can make it into North Texas given the close proximity to the weekend system. Well, all models have been having issues, but the GFS has a documented warm bias, it's almost always the warmest (this last implementation, only, the previous ones all had cold biases) among the ensembles. 12z is colder, but not 0z cold...Also, I don't think the evolution of the SW energy will be as it portraits in it's 06z and 12z runs. Almost all models (except the ukie, which is more progressive) have some sort of energy in the SW, but little precipitation. The probable reason for this is that the cold high just dumps very far south, leaving a very dry near surface...we need a stronger upper disturbance with heavier precipitation in the mid troposphere to saturate the near surface levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Well, all models have been having issues, but the GFS has a documented warm bias, it's almost always the warmest (this last implementation, only, the previous ones all had cold biases) among the ensembles. 12z is colder, but not 0z cold...Also, I don't think the evolution of the SW energy will be as it portraits in it's 06z and 12z runs. Almost all models (except the ukie, which is more progressive) have some sort of energy in the SW, but little precipitation. The probable reason for this is that the cold high just dumps very far south, leaving a very dry near surface...we need a stronger upper disturbance with heavier precipitation in the mid troposphere to saturate the near surface levels. Give it some time. Heck, the HPC this morning stated that the weekend short wave is likely under estimated and details will not be known until that feature crosses the Baja later today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 0Z ECMWF looked mighty interesting for TX/OK early next week. Also, having just looked at the 12Z NAM, if we actually had some upper-level support on Sunday, we might have had the potential for some strong convection in N. TX/S. OK along an advancing dryline with a dry punch coming in along the RR. If this was later in the year and about 10F higher with the moisture (NAM suggests Tds around 55F) it would be a classic day for potential tornadic sups. Just an interesting fact I thought I'd share. There's a 1-2 punch of mid level disturbances and cold highs in the Euro and GFS. The second wave won't be as cold, but for people in the N/Central part of the state it has a good chance of bringing some wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Give it some time. Heck, the HPC this morning stated that the weekend short wave is likely under estimated and details will not be known until that feature crosses the Baja later today/tomorrow. Definitely. Baja lows are a pain in the ass to forecast... is like they have a life of their own. We will have a better grasp on it (them?) in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 The GEM has a full latitude trough and a nice 1050+ high pumping that cold air S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The GEM has a full latitude trough and a nice 1050+ high pumping that cold air S. Similar to 0z, slightly less cold, but colder than any other models (-8C 850mb around here and SE TX)...dry still, even with some energy lagging back in NW MX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Ok, time to stop laughing at the CMC....the ECMWF is even colder! -10C 850mb over SE TX, and -8C here... -12 to -16 N and NE TX ...0C line down to Tampico....less energy in the backside, with cold high over head me...it will obviously be very dry in that setup....except at the beginning of the event for N TX...snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Snow/Sleet in HOU @ 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Just wow...0C line in Veracruz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm picking myself off the floor after seeing those low teens/upper single digits very near my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm picking myself off the floor after seeing those low teens/upper single digits very near my backyard. I should probably wait for this event to verifiy first... but day 10 Euro says that fun is not over after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I should probably wait for this event to verifiy first... but day 10 Euro says that fun is not over after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Snow/Sleet in HOU @ 144? Not HOU proper per Euro AccuWx PPV. College Station, yes, Austin, maybe. Maybe snow flurries as close as Conroe Wednesday morning. 3 or 4 inches of snow, guesstimating phase change during six hour periods from 850s and surface temps, Tuesday for Dallas area. But its one model run, and with luck, even a higher resolution global like the Euro is a touch too warm on surface temps, and a degree or two C would be huge if the Euro otherwise verified perfectly. But I will be satisfied if Mike & Mike's ESPN radio show Tuesday morning from outside the Jerry Dome is in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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