Ed Lizard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Haven't seena recent GFS run with an early February ice miracle. BUt at least its raining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Score a hit for the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Haven't seena recent GFS run with an early February ice miracle. BUt at least its raining... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 848 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011 TXZ213-237-238-241530- BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-HARRIS- 848 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 848 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SANTA FE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SEABROOK...WEBSTER... TEXAS CITY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...SANTA FE...NASSAU BAY...LEAGUE CITY...LA MARQUE...HILLCREST...EL LAGO...DICKINSON AND BACLIFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 only 0.03" at CLL yesterday. drought monitor is nearly comical with B/CS in the bullseye of the severe drought while houston and waco are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Score a hit for the Euro... Being under the 560 something height line, I doubt our 1000-500 mb thicknesses will be anywhere near happy. But surface map has a bit of a potentially happy shallow cold signature. 850s almost 8ºC, I doubt somehow the surface wil support ice, but I'm a glass half full guy. Dallas- maybe even College Station, might be interesting weather, if Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 More trustworthy models are all showing a piece of the Polar Jet closing and digging way south to NW MX. The GFS is the warmest, while the Euro and CMC are a lot colder. It's still beyond a timeframe that would enhance confidence (>5 days). I'm skeptic this kind of solution (and threat far S) can hold for this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z Euro and CMC are downright cold. The Euro has the -18C 850mb temps down to TX and -12C into MX. Also, it looks downright moist, because of the involvment of the STJ, for the southern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like a tad over 100 km between the 8º and freezing 850 mb isotherms close to SETX, and with the trough axis still somewhat to the West, can't rule out some fun, especially if some shallow cold air is riding down. Bad news, Euro PPV precip map, rain ends about hour 192, just after the front passes, but I'm glass full, cold air, deep trough, still slightly to the West, we could get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The above is the 500 mb mean projection for next week at 0z, the left being the ECMWF and the right the GFS. When I see the above, especially the ECMWF (believe the GFS may be too far east), I worry about severe cold getting into Texas (advection freezes all the way to the Lower Rio Grande Valley). Notice in particular the monstrous ridge over Alaska by both models and the isobars cross over the North Pole. Current temps in this region are running 40 to 60 below zero. BRRR!!!! If the Baja low does cut-off and interacts with the above - lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 12Z Euro is a nice hit for DFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 HPC not buying the Euro/Canadian solution...for now...Final Update... 12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR THE SPECIFIC DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS BEYOND WHAT WAS CONSIDERED THIS MORNING. BY DAY 4...TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE AS MUCH AS 12 HRS...WITH THE NEW ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS IN THE NORTHWEST AND GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE UKMET/CANADIAN ONLY WIDEN THE SOLUTION SPREAD. THUS...CONTINUITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH THESE 2 SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES OVER THE CONUS THEN DIMINISH DAYS 5/6...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER... THIS IS NOT THE CASE OVER THE PACIFIC...WHERE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS EXIST. THEN BY DAY 7...THE NEW ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL STREAMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONSES...WHICH RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT LOW EXITING THE PLAINS...THAT IF TRUE...WOULD RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BUT WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEAN NOT PHASED AND THUS MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALONG WITH TELECONNECTIONS WHICH FAVORS THEM...THE CHOICE REMAINS TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOMENT. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12Z Euro is a nice hit for DFW... I agree with the HPC. 12z run shunts the brunt of the cold east, with a more tighter (phased)/neutral tilted trough. Ensembles do not support this and in fact are colder than the op over TX/MX for the first time for this event. They also have a mean positive tilted trough that would favor a moister jet stream over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I agree Jorge. This is far from cast in stone at this point. The local offices are hinting, but not biting as one would expect at this range. By the weekend we'll have a better 'feel' regarding the finer details. How long have we been talking about this pattern...Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I agree Jorge. This is far from cast in stone at this point. The local offices are hinting, but not biting as one would expect at this range. By the weekend we'll have a better 'feel' regarding the finer details. How long have we been talking about this pattern...Christmas... It's interesting that the GFS, since that couple of crazy cold runs, has been in the warm side of things for this event...pretty blah I must say, unless you like 50F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BikiniBottom Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's interesting that the GFS, since that couple of crazy cold runs, has been in the warm side of things for this event...pretty blah I must say, unless you like 50F and rain. Not really. That was yesterday and last night here. Well, a little colder than that. I'm not particularly liking the latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not really. That was yesterday and last night here. Well, a little colder than that. I'm not particularly liking the latest trends. The GFS is definitely too warm. You are gonna have subfreezing temps.... precipitation is the tricky part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 It appears the cold is coming. The $64,000 question is will there be any moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 HPC Morning Update paints a very cold pattern ahead... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 829 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011 VALID 12Z SUN JAN 30 2011 - 12Z WED FEB 02 2011 A NARROW RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IN NORTHWEST QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY THAT SHOULD AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST JUST PRIOR TO THE WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMING FULL LATITUDE IN EXTENT ON MONDAY. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO THOUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... THE 00-06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN SEPARATE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND PUSH BROAD TROUGHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BY TUE/D6 WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FAVORS DIGGING A SHARPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST /OPERATIONAL RUN IS QUITE ROBUST WITH A CLOSED LOW THOUGH MN AND WI/. CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN SIDE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION... ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD /NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION/ ACTUALLY SHOWS COMPARABLY LOWER THAN RECENT SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT 500MB WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE DIGGING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WHILE THE GEFS MEMBERS WERE BASICALLY FLAT/ZONAL. CURRENT RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY MAPS WERE NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE GEFS MEMBERS. THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH AN INCREASED ENSEMBLE WEIGHT BY TUE-WED/D6-7. THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN OUTPACED THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SAT/D3. A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE TERRAIN. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN TOO CONSISTENT ON TIMING BUT ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS STAYED THE COURSE. FRACASSO/ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Now bring some moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Serious differences between the op GFS and ECMWF...over 15-20F difference in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ECMWF has some mighty cold 850mb temps sitting over Texas next week. H85 temps of this magnitude usually equate to lows reaching the single digits in North Texas. This pattern almost seems reminiscent of early March 2002 and February 1996. However, in the latter there was snow and ice across North Texas. For the record, still feel the OP GFS is out to lunch. Even the 2m temperature anomalies mean from the GFS ensembles shows well below normal temperatures in Texas. Climate Predicition Center has also outlined all of Texas for much below normal temps for Feb. 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 The trend with the NWS offices this morning was a Euro(temps)/GFS(moisture). It will be interesting to see which solution blinks first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ECMWF has some mighty cold 850mb temps sitting over Texas next week. H85 temps of this magnitude usually equate to lows reaching the single digits in North Texas. This pattern almost seems reminiscent of early March 2002 and February 1996. However, in the latter there was snow and ice across North Texas. For the record, still feel the OP GFS is out to lunch. Even the 2m temperature anomalies mean from the GFS ensembles shows well below normal temperatures in Texas. Climate Predicition Center has also outlined all of Texas for much below normal temps for Feb. 1. Yep, GFS is way warm...but probably Euro is too cold (coldest for me since 1989 probably, colder than 1996)...something in between looks more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hush you. Go play in the snow in Prague... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Something like that would make happy a lot of Texans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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