Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow flurries reported this morning in Lumberton in far SE TX... http://www.kfdm.com/articles/flurries-41111-snow-southeast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Fri Jan 21 14:52:16 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 211451ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD1350Z FRI JAN 21 201112Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..15 DROPSONDES IN THE WRN PACIFIC WERE AVAILABLE FOR 12Z GFS INGESTIN SUPPORT OF WSR..$$SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 This could get interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 38F. i can't believe how cold it is; i saw frozen puddles this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Back home in MN didn't do too poorly this morning. 600 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011 EDEN PRAIRIE PTCLDY -21 -25 81 CALM 30.10F 6HR MIN TEMP: -21; 6HR MAX TEMP: -14; and they still didn't cancel school. though i did hear that cars are dead left and right at my old high school parking lot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 38F. i can't believe how cold it is; i saw frozen puddles this morning. When I moved from PA to GA it took me about 3 months to become a total weakling with cold weather. In Erie, 40 was nearly t-shirt weather. In GA, it was full on parka weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 More Winter RECON ahead in the Pacific... NOUS42 KNHC 211850 CCA WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0150 PM EST FRI 21 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-052 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE A. P77/ 37.6N 171.8E (DROP 11)/ 24/1200Z JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This could get interesting... Sadly, the Euro goes dry around HOU long before any happy thickness lines approach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sadly, the Euro goes dry around HOU long before any happy thickness lines approach... Look upstream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 When I moved from PA to GA it took me about 3 months to become a total weakling with cold weather. In Erie, 40 was nearly t-shirt weather. In GA, it was full on parka weather. i'm used to breaking out the shorts at 45F in the spring, and i'm bundling up in that here. it's been only 4 days and i'm already a wimp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hmm... this was in the very long range a while back and it keeps popping up. Today 12z gets it within the end of the 10 range. Keep this or some version of it around until the 168 hr range and we might be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hmm... this was in the very long range a while back and it keeps popping up. Today 12z gets it within the end of the 10 range. Keep this or some version of it around until the 168 hr range and we might be on to something. Good to see the Euro suggesting something, even at this range. We'll see what the week brings with all the Winter RECON scheduled for the Western Pacific. NOUS42 KNHC 221800 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0100 PM EST SAT 22 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-053 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. A66/ 28.2N 91.5W (DROP 10)/ 25/1200Z B. A65/ 27.3N 78.6W (DROP 10)/ 26/0000Z II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA49-- A. P77/ 37.6N 171.8E (DROP 11)/ 24/1200Z B. NOAA9 09WSW TRACK77 C. 24/0800Z D. 20 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 24/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE P73/ 439N 172.3E (DROP 11)/ 25/1200Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Snow Goose on the NYC thread responded to my post that this looked like 12/15/89. Now, I don't remember specific dates very well, but I remember 1989 as having an awesomely cold outbreak in Texas just before Christmas. Not directly related to this storm, but why does the Mother of All Alberta Clippers suddenly fizzle on the 12Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A couple of GFS runs have suggested wintry fun out beyond the lobotomy resolution for the HOU area around 2/1/2011. Another week of this, and I'll start to think about preparations. An inch of ice would be like a hurricane, the Ike batteries are probably dead by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A couple of GFS runs have suggested wintry fun out beyond the lobotomy resolution for the HOU area around 2/1/2011. Another week of this, and I'll start to think about preparations. An inch of ice would be like a hurricane, the Ike batteries are probably dead by now. Add the CMC to the mixture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 More importantly, although big differences for the big cities, Euro and GFS QPF Monday night IMBY are three quarters to an inch, and while potential Winter a week away is a nice dream, rain, especially at night, is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Trends are looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm thinking wxmx drew up this map ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm thinking wxmx drew up this map ... ... now you jinxed it . A foot around hr 264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 ... now you jinxed it . A foot around hr 264 Thankfully you did not start a separate thread...yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thankfully you did not start a separate thread...yet... No separate thread until < 72 hrs of the event. There will probably be no thread, that's how confident I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well look who popped in. Aren't we special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I feel dirty now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I feel dirty now But that feeling is gone now 20 inches just north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 But that feeling is gone now 20 inches just north Two trends I would like to see: 1. Bring this inside of 168 hrs and stop bumping it out 6 to 12 hrs every run 2. North trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The afternoon chatter... Dallas/Ft Worth: DIFFERENCES ON SYSTEMS REALLY GET REALIZED DAY 7/BEYOND AS THE GFSADVERTISES A STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN/MON IN THE SRN STREAM/CONVERGENT UPPER FLOW OVER TX...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER/SLOWER/AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AS STATED...WE`REON BOARD WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE TIME BEING AND WITH IT`S BETTERTRACK RECORD BEYOND DAY 5 IN MOST CASES. Midland/Odessa: THE GENERAL PATTERN THAT WE/VE BEEN IN CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS ACOLD PROGRESSIVE. FROM A PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN ORTELE-CONNECTIONS PERSPECTIVE THE W COAST RIDGE HAS FAVORED AMERIDIONAL MID LEVEL COMPONENT AND THUS FREQUENT COLD FRONTS.FREQUENCY OF COLD FRONTS/SOURCE REGIONS IN PART ARE LIMITING THECHANCE OF SIG PRECIP THIS FAR W AS THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY SMALLWINDOWS FOR MSTR TO RETURN AHEAD OF FRONTS...NOT SO MUCH FARTHER SEINTO THE STATE. FURTHER THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF LATE IS INALIGNMENT WITH A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION...THUSAIDING THE COLD PART OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. USING 6-10 DAYAND 8-14 DAY 5H ANOMALY CHARTS THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN (RIDGE INTHE W) SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN.MEANWHILE THE ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION DO SHOW ATREND UPWARD WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS GFS/ECMWF HINT THATMID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE FARTHER W. ALL TO SAY THAT THEREIS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE WITHIN THENEXT 2 WEEKS. Corpus Christi: BEYOND FRIDAY THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAREGION WILL LIFT OUT AND WHEN. THE ECMWF LOOSES THE SYSTEM ALLTOGETHER WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS BEGIN TO EJECT THE SYSTEM ANDBRING IT ACROSS NE MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TX FRI NGT/SAT. MOISTURE ANDFORCING LOOKS BETTER WITH THIS FEATURE THUS ADDED 20/30% POPS.MEANWHILE...THE UPR PATTERN BEGINS TO BUCKLE WITH A STRONG MID/UPRLVL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A DEEP COLD TROUGHBECOMING AMPLIFIED OVER HUDSON BAY. SFC TEMPERATURE READINGS THE PASTCOUPLE DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA HAVE BEEN FRIGID...HOVERIN THE -20 TO -50 DEG F RANGE. IF THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WE COULDSEE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE NATIONEAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE INITIAL EDGE OF THE FRONT REACHINGSOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTN. THE AIRMASS WOULD MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLYBEFORE REACHING SOUTH TEXAS BUT RAW GFS SFC TEMPS INDICATE HIGHS INTHE MID 20S-MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE. (HAVEN`T SEEN TEMPS THISCOLD IN CANADA ALL SEASON UNTIL NOW) AGAIN THERE IS CONSIDERABLEUNCERTAINTY SO WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS TIME DRAWSCLOSER. COULD BE SOME POST FRONTAL PCPN MONDAY AS BOTH THEGFS/ECMWF PROG A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ANDAND UPR LVL S/W ENERGY TO PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like an intersting 36-48 hours across TX. A surface low is forming near Corpus and an impressive H5 low diving S from UT/CO... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2011 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TX COAST... AIRMASS MODIFICATION/MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/TOWARD THE LOWER TX COAST...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/CAP REMOVAL HAS OCCURRED SINCE EARLY TODAY PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM BROWNSVILLE/CORPUS CHRISTI. REGARDLESS...MODEST FORCING COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IMPLY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW INLAND...WITH ANY TSTMS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE OPEN GULF WATERS OFF THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ..GUYER.. 01/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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