Srain Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Cold after cold after cold. Very chilly pattern for most of the easternmost 2/3s of the CONUS...but could one of this waves reach us this far south? Hopefully, otherwise I will hate the 40s and drizzle forever. 0z Euro has a nice sub 560dm low over Mazatlan...but polar jet is bottling the cold in Canada... if only.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z and 12z Euro are quite similar...558dm low deep in MX...cold about to plunge south. If we could uncork the cold just a day earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I like the trends today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I like the trends today... It's like getting a teeth pulled out at the dentist. No complain, it's always like that over here. I almost never get the lollipop afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It has been four years since 'America's favorite college' was closed due to weather conditions. Two days of freezing drizzle back in January 2007. Canadian ensemble means hate you. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 You folk near Dallas may need to keep an eye out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You folk near Dallas may need to keep an eye out… I have not been able to follow the models very closely this week b/c of work and what not. It looks like the timing on this is going to be very close and I think we will see some freezing rain / drizzle out here in the NE burbs. I'm interested in what might happen Sunday afternoon and night. I'll have to take a closer look at the models tomorrow and see if its worth investing some tracking time into! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Denton reporting unknown precip and 32ºF. DFW above freezing at 8 am, but dropped 15ºF in the previous 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Maybe a bit of hope for Jorge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Maybe a bit of hope for Jorge... This is excruciating...I just need the closed low 80 miles south (12z GFS). Probably not gonna happen, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Bullseye in the greatest low anomalies in North America in the GFS Ensembles, and I can't get a subfreezing reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Bullseye in the greatest low anomalies in North America in the GFS Ensembles, and I can't get a subfreezing reading We'll push it S for you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We'll push it S for you.. With the incentive that further south means that you get into the game also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BTW.... the medium/long range looks ...at least thru half of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 BTW.... the medium/long range looks ...at least thru half of February Yep. The pattern is full of potential. The 12Z GEM agrees with next week as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yep. The pattern is full of potential. The 12Z GEM agrees with next week as well... Yeah, and is further south ... I mean...way south, probably you are all pushing too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I told you we would push it S. Come on now, don't be greedy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 good lord it's cold outside. 42F, cloudy, and windy... and increasingly colder no doubt the most miserable day i've spent here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 HPC giving some credence to the digging short wave idea next week... 12Z UPDATE... NEW GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DAY 3 SUN PLAINS EVOLUTION WITH A BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE FINAL FCST INCORPORATES IDEAS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WITH THE GFS LESS FAVORED AS IT IS ON THE DEEP SIDE OF THE SOLN SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT AS HIGH AS BEFORE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. THE UKMET/CMC HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SCENARIO OF PULLING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY SWWD INTO NWRN MEXICO BY DAY 5 TUE THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/EWD WRN ATLC SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY... ALBEIT IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORM... TOWARD A MORE CONSOLIDATED NRN STREAM MID LVL SYSTEM THAT ULTIMATELY MAINTAINS AN EAST COAST SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. SOME TIMING/DETAIL DIFFS ARE NOTED WITH UPSTREAM FEATURES WITH MORE DATA DESIRED BEFORE MAKING A CONFIDENT ADJUSTMENT. FOR DAYS 4-7 THE FULL EVALUATION OF LATEST SOLNS IN LIGHT OF SENSITIVITY OF THE FCST PATTERN FAVORS ONLY MINOR DETAIL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE. THE LARGE SCALE MEAN PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDS OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THE MOST EXTREME READINGS ARE FCST OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUN-MON WHEN HIGHS MAY BE UP TO 15-25 F BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EVENTUAL NWD EXTENT OF WINTRY PCPN SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS SUN ONWARD... WITH POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OVER THE NORTHEAST BY TUE-WED RANGING FROM A MAJOR EVENT TO NO PCPN AT ALL. CURRENT FCST PREFERENCES ARE TOWARD HAVING AT LEAST SOME PCPN REACHING NERN AREAS. MEANWHILE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF GULF INFLOW THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY MDT-HVY RNFL OVER EXTREME SRN AREAS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY MAY SEE ONE OR MORE DAYS OF LGT SNOW. THOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY SOLN AT THIS TIME... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME RESIDUAL SRN STREAM ENERGY TO GENERATE ANOTHER GULF OF MEXICO WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. RAUSCH UKMET onboard the GFS/Canadian train regarding next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 good lord it's cold outside. 42F, cloudy, and windy... and increasingly colder no doubt the most miserable day i've spent here Currently 33.7 F and cloudy here, with winds gusting to 22 mph... Welcome to Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Currently 33.7 F and cloudy here, with winds gusting to 22 mph... Welcome to Texas gusting to 30 here. i don't know if 39F has ever felt so cold to me as it did today walking back across campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nothing between Texas and Siberia but barb wire fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 37.7 and still dropping here. Gusts to the mid 30's... oh, and we will have another Winter RECON mission in the Pacific. Hopefully we will see some improvement via the NCEP models in regards to our upstream activity in the days ahead. With the progressive pattern of storms and fronts every couple of days, guidance will need all the help it can get, IMO... NOUS42 KNHC 201730 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST THU 20 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-051 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 10-050 FOR 21/1200Z WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 813 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011 .UPDATE... SEE EVENING UPDATE BELOW. && .DISCUSSION... 01Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS CONTINUE TO HOWL ALONG THE COAST. RUC AND NAM12 SHOW WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. FEEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 25 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MIN TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH A FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. NEW ZONES OUT BY 830 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A brief period of freezing drizzle today but nothing really. Tally for this winter: 4" snow and two episodes of freezing drizzle. Also, one of the DFW TV weather guys is calling for a mild Feb w/ avg precipitation (don't know which one, I never watch the news and only saw it b/c I just turned on the TV and it was on that channel). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 The Jorge Storm is back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gusting to 30 here. i don't know if 39F has ever felt so cold to me as it did today walking back across campus. Back home in MN didn't do too poorly this morning. 600 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011 EDEN PRAIRIE PTCLDY -21 -25 81 CALM 30.10F 6HR MIN TEMP: -21; 6HR MAX TEMP: -14; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Back home in MN didn't do too poorly this morning. 600 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011 EDEN PRAIRIE PTCLDY -21 -25 81 CALM 30.10F 6HR MIN TEMP: -21; 6HR MAX TEMP: -14; Something happens when you move down here. I grew up on Long Island, NY, and the Winters of 76-77 and 77-78, I remember them well. Cold, but somehow we were used to it. Now, a day like today, highs in the 40s, I'm going to suffer. I think INL did -46ºF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Something happens when you move down here. I grew up on Long Island, NY, and the Winters of 76-77 and 77-78, I remember them well. Cold, but somehow we were used to it. Now, a day like today, highs in the 40s, I'm going to suffer. I think INL did -46ºF "Cold" or what is considered "cold", is definitely relative to where you're at. Yeah, INL hit -46º, breaking today's daily low record by 5 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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