wxmx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Conditions are ripe for a possible major winter storm for the Sern states, including TX. If we can tap some of the cold Canadian air and build a sizeable dome of high pressure over the Rockies(1040+mb), and a nice storm (cutoff low?) over MX, then parts of Deep south and SE TX can get in the game. Euro and Canadian are close, but there's relatively little cold air @ day 10, which I find a little absurd due to the 576+mb ridge over Cali/Oregon and ample cold in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Conditions are ripe for a possible major winter storm for the Sern states, including TX. If we can tap some of the cold Canadian air and build a sizeable dome of high pressure over the Rockies(1040+mb), and a nice storm (cutoff low?) over MX, then parts of Deep south and SE TX can get in the game. Euro and Canadian are close, but there's relatively little cold air @ day 10, which I find a little absurd due to the 576+mb ridge over Cali/Oregon and ample cold in Canada. There's your storm, Jorge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sure is looking icy across portions of the Lone Star State on Wednesday/Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There's your storm, Jorge... Yep, Feb 1st is in the middle of a date range where I would put the highest probability of a supressed winter event. Ensembles (and ops) are showing a crash in heights in the south and SE with an extended period of below average temps, and a very active STJ. Looks like a Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sure is looking icy across portions of the Lone Star State on Wednesday/Thursday... Beg to disagree, but based on relative closeness of 850 freezing line to 540 dm thickness lines (which tells me not a super chunk of shallow low level cold air), and Easterly to ESE winds at hour 66, I think its a rain to snow change, with no or short period of freezing precip. Oklahoma looks much favored over Texas, the amount of QPF after 850mb freezing/540 thicknesses have passed by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 We will see, want we, Ed...Meanwhile, Jorge is probably drooling about now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We will see, want we, Ed...Meanwhile, Jorge is probably drooling about now... You mean a cold frontal passage, with low level air coming straight South from the Prairie Provinces? With a trough to the West, SW flow aloft, and the 850 mb freezing line as close as about Waco? I hope I'm begging to agree... OK, this is cheating, but AccuWx PPV Euro shows a slug of 80 to 90% relative humidities approaching SE Texas at 700 mb. The surface freezing line has only made it to Dallas by hour 240, but its still moving, plus, all else being right, even a relatively high res global like the Euro may have issues with shallow airmasses. Technically, the Euro is a near miss, but at 240 hours, it has time to correct in a happy way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We will see, want we, Ed...Meanwhile, Jorge is probably drooling about now... You mean a cold frontal passage, with low level air coming straight South from the Prairie Provinces? With a trough to the West, SW flow aloft, and the 850 mb freezing line as close as about Waco? I hope I'm begging to agree... OK, this is cheating, but AccuWx PPV Euro shows a slug of 80 to 90% relative humidities approaching SE Texas at 700 mb. The surface freezing line has only made it to Dallas by hour 240, but its still moving, plus, all else being right, even a relatively high res global like the Euro may have issues with shallow airmasses. Technically, the Euro is a near miss, but at 240 hours, it has time to correct in a happy way. Close, but probably no cigar for neither of us (different story a little farther north, probably). Cold is unimpressive... coldest from Central Canada to the south is around -10C, not going to be enough to get it cold enough this far south. We need a more positive tilted trough, so there's moisture available when the deepest cold arrive. But overall, I like the trends, and the pattern is still there in the model's long range, it won't collapse fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Close, but probably no cigar for neither of us (different story a little farther north, probably). Cold is unimpressive... coldest from Central Canada to the south is around -10C, not going to be enough to get it cold enough this far south. We need a more positive tilted trough, so there's moisture available when the deepest cold arrive. But overall, I like the trends, and the pattern is still there in the model's long range, it won't collapse fast. I'm waiting for severe weather season, myself. I love a good snow miracle, but they are few and far between in this state. Unless you live in Dalhart, TX. I did see sleet once while drinking on a cold, rainy night in Ensenada, BC Norte with some Navy buddies. You get sailors drunk enough, they'll pay a man with a hand cranked generator connected to a voltmeter to measure their voltage pain threshold, and you'll see men play a game for a pitcher of beer, arms together, lit cigarette between them, first men to pull away in pain buys the beer. Hey, La Silla at 1800 meters, does it get snow capped very often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hey, La Silla at 1800 meters, does it get snow capped very often? Nope, never in the 17 years I have lived here. It was probably snow capped in Dec. 1997, maybe in Jan 1996, but couldn't see it because of low level clouds... and when they disappeared, so did the snow. Have seen some light snow above 1000 meters, or sleet or freezing rain (last week there was probably 0.2 inches of freezing rain up there). With an average of around 1.5 subfreezing days per year in the valley in the last 17 years, snow miracle has a different meaning down here... that's why I'm amazed at the two historical snowstorms on record for Monterrey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 on my way back to tejas. i'm going to miss the cold and snow. 50s sound boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 on my way back to tejas. i'm going to miss the cold and snow. 50s sound boring. As I said, we're waiting on you to get back to 'tejas'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Drizzle has ended, and I am seeing some patches of clear sky. What a boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Drizzle has ended, and I am seeing some patches of clear sky. What a boring pattern. send it this way. 55F and damp. am i back in seatac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 send it this way. 55F and damp. am i back in seatac? It must have been a Galleria Area thing because it's 57 and damp here as well. No sun here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It must have been a Galleria Area thing because it's 57 and damp here as well. No sun here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Interesting discussion from the CPC regarding the sensible weather expected until the first of February... PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD 300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 18 2011 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 28 2011 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. ALL MODELS PREDICT TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND OVER THE BERING SEA WITH RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. MOST MODELS ALSO PREDICT A MEAN POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, HOWEVER THERE ARE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND REPRESENTS A FAIRLY EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF BASED SOLUTIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA NEAR THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE OF ALASKA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST AS SOME MODELS FORECAST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR OR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW OR NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGE FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAYS 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - FEB 01, 2011 MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD GENERALLY PREDICT A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES OVER THE CONUS FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE NEGATIVE AO THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE THE PNA IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN ALASKA WITH A RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PATTERNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THE FORECAST RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST IN THE VICINITY. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVER THE WEST, THE FORECAST LONGWAVE RIDGE FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION WHILE MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKAN SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sure looks like a progressive pattern ahead with fronts/storms every few days. Sunday/Monday looks wet and chilly across parts of the Lone Star State... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0Z and 6Z GFS suggest a dreary coastal trough type setup on Sunday/Monday, but we're (HOU) slightly to the good of the 10º 2 meter isotherm, so it isn't maximum dreariness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 The 12Z GFS suggests wintry weather across portions of N TX on Sunday/Monday. Interesting to see the amount of Upper Level energy hanging back across AZ/NM as well via that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The 12Z GFS suggests wintry weather across portions of N TX on Sunday/Monday. Interesting to see the amount of Upper Level energy hanging back across AZ/NM as well via that model. Cold after cold after cold. Very chilly pattern for most of the easternmost 2/3s of the CONUS...but could one of this waves reach us this far south? Hopefully, otherwise I will hate the 40s and drizzle forever. 0z Euro has a nice sub 560dm low over Mazatlan...but polar jet is bottling the cold in Canada... if only.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Almost ...but looks like a good hit for Austin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Baby steps. The snow to our N may just help the pattern. Who Knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <Heart palpitations after seeing the Canadian.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 <Heart palpitations after seeing the Canadian.> 3 more hours to the Canadian ensembles. And just Northwest of AUS would be the real winners eyeballing the 850 mb freezing line and the precip that falls the following six hours. BTW, after duplicating the post of the Pittsburgh ice storm U-Tube on OT, can anyone imagine the fun just West of Austin? I'm thinking that windy road down from Lake Travis, with some sharp drop offs to the side and areas of what must be about a 5% grade. Enough to cancel class at America's favorite college? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 3 more hours to the Canadian ensembles. And just Northwest of AUS would be the real winners eyeballing the 850 mb freezing line and the precip that falls the following six hours. BTW, after duplicating the post of the Pittsburgh ice storm U-Tube on OT, can anyone imagine the fun just West of Austin? I'm thinking that windy road down from Lake Travis, with some sharp drop offs to the side and areas of what must be about a 5% grade. Enough to cancel class at America's favorite college? It has been four years since 'America's favorite college' was closed due to weather conditions. Two days of freezing drizzle back in January 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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