Srain Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Per the operational Euro, Ed, yes. However, the CMC ensembles had almost half of its members showing that trough further west and much colder for the Southern Plains. Operational runs continue to struggle with the pattern per HPC. The 12Z GEM continues to suggest a better PNA ridge. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I posted the Raleigh Euro ensemble means to show that the ensembles gave pretty good support to the operational Euro. Maybe I should re-read B-I's piece on proper use of models, and not hugging the Euro over other models, but if the Op Euro is supported by the means, it could be wildly wrong, but I trust it over the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 So much for that warming trend expect starting tomorrow. HGX has lowered high temps for tomorrow yet again. We seem to be in a 15-20 degrees below climo pattern since last Sunday. Next week continues to look mighty interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looking wet across the Lone Star State this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looking wet across the Lone Star State this weekend... I won't say no to the rain, but we remain in the stable sector looking at the NAM, and are far enough removed from the cold air not to have any p-type fun. 500 mb low almost overhead, I was hoping maybe a pocket of happy thickness for Monterrey, but apparently not. Maybe the GFS will be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I won't say no to the rain, but we remain in the stable sector looking at the NAM, and are far enough removed from the cold air not to have any p-type fun. 500 mb low almost overhead, I was hoping maybe a pocket of happy thickness for Monterrey, but apparently not. Maybe the GFS will be happier. No source of cold air for that one, and it's too weak of a shortwave to "create it's own cold". When a big cold high is missing, you need sub 558dm lows..and even then you might have boundary layer issues. I got one of those like 10 years ago, no cold air and sleet with surface temps around 50F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 HPC says toss out the GFS and Canadian as too progressive (fast) and trust the Euro (and UKMET to some extent)...regarding the pattern and pressures…support for a cutoff low to our W gains momentum... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 155 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 18 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011 THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ARE BASED ON THE 00Z/14 ECMWF. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS ROBUST SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE 12Z/13 ECENS MEAN AND THE 00Z/14 UKMET FROM COAST TO COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH THE STRONG EUROPEAN CENTRE CLUSTER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE NATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOT EVEN WELL CORRELATED WITH THE 00Z/14 GEFS MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERIFYING STRONGLY ON AVERAGE THIS COLD SEASON WITH ITS SURFACE PRESSURES...PARTICULARLY DAYS 6 AND 7. THE UPCOMING PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH LOW THICKNESSES COINCIDING WITH HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. CISCO San Angelo concurs and mentions the flip of the 06Z GFS... HE MAIN ITEMS OF FOCUS NEXT WEEK POSSIBILITY OF FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. A GOOD WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 10 DEGREES C. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 12-16 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE SO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE PATTERN LATER NEXT WEEK. THE 06Z GFS NOW DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...WHICH IT DID NOT SHOW ON ITS 00Z RUN. THE 06Z GFS LOOKS MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE. GFS IS ALSO FASTER AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...HAS STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND IS SLOWER WITH THE MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING VERY MUCH SKILL ON DAYS 6 AND 7. AT THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS FAVORED BY HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wall_cloud Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'll throw in my quick 2 cents before starting on the forecast for today. A quick glance at the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS makes me want to puke. I strongly favor the overall pattern of the ECMWF by midweek (maybe not as wet) but I don't see why we won't see another quick blast of cold air by Thursday. Currently, western Canada has temps of -30F to -40F with surface pressures as highs as 1052 mb. We are seeing a good cross polar flow setting up through the weekend which should help to reinforce/intensify the cold temps. Sure, this cold air could be shunted to our east but I'm thinking we'll get at least a 1 day shot. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'll throw in my quick 2 cents before starting on the forecast for today. A quick glance at the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS makes me want to puke. I strongly favor the overall pattern of the ECMWF by midweek (maybe not as wet) but I don't see why we won't see another quick blast of cold air by Thursday. Currently, western Canada has temps of -30F to -40F with surface pressures as highs as 1052 mb. We are seeing a good cross polar flow setting up through the weekend which should help to reinforce/intensify the cold temps. Sure, this cold air could be shunted to our east but I'm thinking we'll get at least a 1 day shot. Stay tuned... Good luck on that forecast, wall_cloud. I see the GFS has flipped again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wall_cloud Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 it sure has. Luckily, it has come in line with what I had thought yesterday with the cold air coming in very early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 it sure has. Luckily, it has come in line with what I had thought yesterday with the cold air coming in very early Thursday. Now the GEM agrees on a Thrusday FROPA. Oh and now we have another model suggesting a cutoff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 12Z Euro now suggests the Arctic front will enter the Panhandle on Tuesday evening. And look out to our W. That model now suggests the cutoff low will move in a bit faster and cold air is becoming established across the Lone Star State... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 215 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011 ...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE AN INTERESTING FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK... GUIDANCE IN A LARGER SENSE AGREES THAT A COOLING/UNSETTLING AND AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL US TO WRN ATLANTIC TUE-THU. IN THIS FLOW EMBEDDED SYSTEM AND STREAM PHASING ISSUES THOUGH INTRODUCE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW DEVELOPMENTS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY SEEMS RELATED TO THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO HOW POTENT LEAD ENERGIES DIGGING OUT FROM THE WRN US INTO THE BASE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERIFIES ACROSS THE US SRN TIER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/CANADIAN AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. A SOLUTION ALOFT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PORTION OF THE FULL SOLUTION ENVELOPE PROVIDED BY GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT LOWER LEVELS THE 06 UTC GFS DID SUPPORT A MORE DEFINED SURFACE WAVE AND THE 12 UTC GFS HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. HPC PROGS MAINTAIN REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH A LOW TRACK/CYCLOGENESIS OVER/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENG TUE/WED...ALBEIT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING RECENT GUIDANCE SENSITIVITY INCLUDING THE 12 UTC ECMWF THAT IS NOW SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED/DEVELOPED THIS SYSTEM. UPSTREAM...THE 00/12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET OFFER A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE 00/06/12 UTC GFS AND CANADIAN WITH RE-EMERGING NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT SLATED TO DIG INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US MIDWEEK AND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL NRN TIER OF THE US INTO THU/FRI THAT WOULD FAVOR QUITE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SURGE OF BITTER COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MEANWHILE DEPCIT MUCH SHARPER DIGGING OF TROUGH ENERGIES FARTHER BACK DOWN THROUGH THE US WEST COAST. THIS LEADS TO CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SRN CA BY DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI COMPARED TO MUCH BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL STATES IN RECENT GFS/CANADIAN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE 12 UTC GFS THOUGH HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PRIOR 00/06 UTC RUNS BUT THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PRIOR RUNS...SEEMINGLY ALL WORKING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO A MORE CONCENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. AS PER THESE TWO GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES HIGHLIGHTED JUST ABOVE...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED LOW/TROUGH ANCHORING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT WEEK DOES HAVE QUITE A BIT OF JET ENERGY RUNNING UNDERNEATH TO VARIOUS DEGREES. THIS NONETHELESS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR MAINTAINING FOR A LONGER PERIOD A GREATER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE ON THE HIGHER SPECTRUM OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO AN INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM DIGGING/AMPLITUDE WITH BOTH THE WRN US AND N-CENTRAL US SYSTEMS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THIS...BUT WITH STILL AMPLE FORECAST SPREAD WITHIN ALL GUIDANCE...THE PRELIM HPC SOLUTION WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A NEAR EVEN BLEND OF THE QUITE AMPLIFIED 00 UTC ECMWF AND A SOMEWHAT LESS ROBUST 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FINAL HPC GUIDANCE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY STRENGTH OVER THE N-CENTRAL US...BUT DID TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE CA/SW US SYSTEM AFTER CONSIDERATION OF LATEST 12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUDIANCE. SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Wintry weather looks likely with the Jan 21st-22nd impulse for somewhere in TX. Too early to tell where, but W and N TX are the common sense suspects. Another round of negative NAO is very much in play for late Jan. No warmup on sight, other than the C and N W Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Wintry weather looks likely with the Jan 21st-22nd impulse for somewhere in TX. Too early to tell where, but W and N TX are the common sense suspects. Another round of negative NAO is very much in play for late Jan. No warmup on sight, other than the C and N W Coast. Yep. Looks like a classic ice event at this range from W Central/Central/N and NE TX. Depending on just how strong the frontal boundary is and how far S it pushes mid week, perhaps part of S Central/SE TX could be added to that mix. We will see. I saw the NAO trend. Also nice to see the AO backing off that flirt with a positive. PNA is looking yummy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 18Z GFS says hoist the TS Watches/Warnings in S TX/NE MX. An early chase season for Josh and Jorge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18Z GFS says hoist the TS Watches/Warnings in S TX/NE MX. An early chase season for Josh and Jorge... maybe another cat3 like carla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nice dent in the drought if it verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z Canadian and UKMET continue the trend promising an icy and cold conclusion to next week in Tejas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 maybe another cat3 like carla Good thing I don't read these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Sure looks like a classic Lone Star State Ice Storm in the making at this stage of the game. The trends today suggest the Arctic boundary will be pushing S into the Panhandle late on Wednesday. With the trough axis to our W and any U/A disturbance lurking in the NW flow, a classic over running event could well happen. Got to love those sharp/shallow Arctic Boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nice dent in the drought if it verifies... Dent me, please... I'll pass on the ice if possible though We've barely broken 40 degrees all week; that's not excruciating, but it's at least 10-15 degrees lower than was forecast for this weekend, plus we've had more moisture than anticipated for this last couple of weeks. Knowing that, I'd hedge my bets towards the colder/wetter side for next week as well... Thank goodness I just had a woodheater installed - we'll be toasty warm even if we freeze over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 HPC says all the operational models are out to lunch... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 722 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 20 2011 - 12Z SUN JAN 23 2011 VERY POOR MODEL AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL OPERATIONAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE SUSPECT. USE OF LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS EXAMINING MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY YIELDS A SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREED UPON ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN. THIS WAS USED AS A BASE WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD BRING AN OFFSHORE/SANTA ANA EVENT TO CA WED INTO THURS. A DIFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE GLFMEX COAST FRI AND INTO SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST SAT AND SUN. RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST FRI AND SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE INTERIOR PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBILY THE MID ATLC COASTAL PLAIN AS PER ECMWF ENS MEAN. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. AN OVERALL BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP COAST TO COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF CONUS BELOW NORMAL LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 FYI: Some special sounding data will be launched around 18Z across TX/OK/AR/LA. There is even a suggestion of Winter RECON missions to better evaluate the situation ahead this week. Those are strong hints that there is certainly something ahead that requires as much data as possible... NOUS42 KWNO 161339 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1337Z SUN JAN 16 2011..CORRECTION...RELEASE SONDES TODAY NOT TOMORROW... THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.. 12Z RAOB RECAP... KPP/78970 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS... NCEP HPC IS REQUESTING 18Z SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY 1/16 FROM THE FOLLOWING STATES TX..LA..OK..AR..THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING UPPER AIR SITES..72249 FWD..72250 BRO..72251 CRP..72261 DRT..72265 MAF..72363 AMA..72364 EPZ..72240 LCH..72248 SHV..72233 LIX..72340 LZK..72357 OUN.. 74646 LMN.. THE REASON FOR THE REQUEST FOLLOWS... IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IF ALL UPPER AIR SITES IN OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, TEXAS, AND LOUISIANA WERE ABLE TO LAUNCH AN 18Z SET OF BALLOONS/RADIOSONDES TODAY 1/16 TO HELP BETTER INITIALIZE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMERGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH THE SCHEDULED WINTER WEATHER RECON. A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. $$ SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP This was the CARCAH assignment (Winter RECON) issued yesterday for today/tomorrow... 000 NOUS42 KNHC 151930 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0230 PM EST SAT 15 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-046 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 17/1200Z B. AFXXX 09WSA TRACK66 C. 17/0730Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 17/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. POSSIBLE A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 18/0000Z B. POSSIBLE A62/ DROP 10 (TORRY)/ 18/1200Z II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: G-IV WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED IN WSPOD 10-045 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED. SEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 HGX thinking we'll have a very messy afternoon/evening... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2011 .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2011/ INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL IS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AT LATE MORNING. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWS RUNNING 1.0-1.2 INCHES. KHGX VWP SHOWS A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN AN ENHANCEMENT IN RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS EXPECTED AS WELL AS A POCKET OF VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPS (-20 TO -22C) MOVES OVER THE CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT ROUND AS WELL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. Also notice the Mountain Waves associated with a strong Northerly flow dropping S from the Rockies in Far W TX/S NM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Winter RECON schedule has updated... NOUS42 KNHC 161830 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0130 PM EST SUN 16 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-047 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/0000Z B. AFXXX 10WSA TRACK65 C. 17/1800Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/0200Z FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/1200Z B. AFXXX 11WSA TRACK65 C. 18/0615Z D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: WC-130 WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 10-046 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 It is interesting to see that Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Norman and Shreveport are all mentioning the possibility of a wintry mix on Thursday. They all suggest that their temps may be too warm as well. And then the discussion begins to turn toward next weekend and another reinforcing shot of cold air and another Upper Air disturbance. Just another boring week ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 A little better agreement this morning via the Opertaional models, but still a bit of a spread within the ensembles and those operational models. The HPC spells out the differences and suggests the Euro is the best fit, for now...still looks like a icy Thursday from the Hill Country to NE TX...later in the medium/longer range, an unsettled pattern looks to remain in place as well... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 801 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 24 2011 EXPECT A LARGE SCALE MEAN TROF TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA INTO THE ERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CONUS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE NWRN CONUS/WRN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFS STILL EXIST WITH DETAILS AMONG LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS AND CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS BUT AS A WHOLE AGREEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. DAYS 3-5 THU-SAT MAINTAIN A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. AS OF EARLY DAY 3 THU THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS WITH THE COLD FRONT SURGING THRU THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS SLOWER THAN ECMWF-BASED GUIDANCE. NEITHER SCENARIO IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE FULL SOLN SPREAD. GIVEN THAT SUCH SURGES CAN SOMETIMES BE FCST A LITTLE TOO SLOW... THE FASTER PORTION OF THE ENVELOPE SEEMS REASONABLE. BY DAY 4 FRI THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING POSSIBLE SFC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A DEEP/WWD EXTREME COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS AND THE 06Z GFS IS RATHER FAR WWD AS WELL. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. ON THE OTHER HAND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF... LEAVING THE 00Z ECMWF AS A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN AT THIS TIME. BY DAY 5 SAT THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS A WAVE REACHING THE PLAINS OR MS VALLEY. A FASTER TREND OF THE 06Z GFS VERSUS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN ADD SUPPORT TO THE 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH TIMING/DETAIL SPREAD TO KEEP CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW. FARTHER WWD THE 00Z ECMWF IS ONE OF THE STRONGER SOLNS WITH A SHRTWV REACHING THE NWRN CONUS BY EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE IS FARTHER NWD IN THE 00Z CMC AND HINTED AT IN WEAKER FORM BY ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE UKMET. WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE FOR ANY CONFIDENT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE IN LIGHT OF ECMWF PREFERENCE ELSEWHERE. DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON INCORPORATE 50-60 PCT OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE SPECIFICS OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WITHIN THE FULL SOLN SPREAD OVER THE WEST/PLAINS BUT CURRENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE DIFFS AND ECMWF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES REQUIRE A BLENDED APPROACH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MEANWHILE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS LACKING FOR THE 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW BEING LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS OF EARLY DAY 7 MON... AS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS BROADER FLOW ALOFT THAN FCST BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THE PREFERRED BLEND STILL YIELDS A WEAK WAVE BUT IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF GUIDANCE. RAUSCH/CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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