bubba hotep Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some flakes finally starting to mix in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Enjoy what you get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still just a boring rain/snow mix here but the temp has fallen to near freezing. This reminds me of Dec. 5th in Alexandria, VA last year. We could never get over the hump while places not to far away picked up a couple of inches. However, radar looks good for a bit of accumulation if we can ever get over to all snow. Edit: Have switched over to "wintery mix" here in the last 10 min with more sleet and snow than rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wintry mix like a mofo here in north Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You don't see deep PV's ejecting out of MX and into TX/Gulf region very often. Fun weather out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Pretty much all snow here now with cars and roof tops turning white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bubba, where is 'here'? I slept through the thunder, and now the rain is almost gone. A menudo morning, although carniceria menudo isn't like one of the tia's made it. Is that bright banding because of p-type or a dump of precip? Anyhoo, Denton and Collin County now dropping through freezing, always a happy milestone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bubba, where is 'here'? Rural Collin County near Wylie, TX. NWS has upgraded us to a Winter Storm Warning as the snow continues to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 snow slowing down here on UTD's campus...much ado about nothing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BikiniBottom Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd love some of that nothing. Just a cold rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd love some of that nothing. Just a cold rain down here. Snow would be fun, but I'm actually SOOOOO glad to get the rain! We had some storms earlier and a steady cold rain; now we are waiting to see if we are going to get some freezing drizzle along with these dropping temps (35 degrees now)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 snow slowing down here on UTD's campus...much ado about nothing IMO If that was Houston I'd remember the day, like 12/24/04, 12/10/08 and 12/05/09 for the rest of my life. We might have a freeze Wednesday morning. Even 12/5/09 we didn't get that much snow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12Z GEM offers some hope for a surprise or two in the Thursday time frame and into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I would say we got in and around the neighborhood of 4" and that jives nicely with the NWS map below. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 A 39 balmy degrees in NW Harris County at this hour stuck in an inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 snow slowing down here on UTD's campus...much ado about nothing IMO Man that campus is plain, made it hard to drag myself up there for my PhD work... Go Comets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man that campus is plain, made it hard to drag myself up there for my PhD work... Go Comets! Yeah. No character but compared to kstate they are well funded. I am jealous of their classrooms. The ones I teach in suck and have no tech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 12Z GEM offers some hope for a surprise or two in the Thursday time frame and into the weekend. Ummmm... it's snowing here right now... just lightly, but still - SNOW. That's just a wee bit unexpected. 33 degrees, no precip showing on the radar; temps expected to drop into the teens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM is probably the only model to bring some wintry precip right now this close. Probably sleet/freezing rain if it verifies, 700mb is just too warm. If only we could get the weak S/W to wound up a little bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hard freeze warning tonight for Harris County Kind of like a mini-freeze version of last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice shot of the snow across N and NE TX and beyond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I had the pleasure of shooting a major MVA this morning with a temperature of 21F and a Wind Chill of 7F. Can we please bring back the pattern we had on December 31st where it was in the 60's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I had the pleasure of shooting a major MVA this morning with a temperature of 21F and a Wind Chill of 7F. Can we please bring back the pattern we had on December 31st where it was in the 60's? I'll 2nd that! I want my La Nina warmth. I am now satisfied with this winter and ready to move on to spring. I experienced enough cold and snow during my time out in Virgina and the 4" of snow we got this weekend was just enough to satisfy me. La Nina Warmth Now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 A balmy 24 here this morning and the pool auto freeze protection has been running since mid night. La Nina ftl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A balmy 24 here this morning and the pool auto freeze protection has been running since mid night. La Nina ftl... 20 degrees - some La Nina this is! I agree with Bubba; after going out at midnight to drain pipes and turn off water at our lil' Church - and then going out to check on livestock and break ice on water this morning - I'm ready for a lil' of that summer lovin'... Howsumever, I do believe that this will kill the grasshoppers off pretty good, so it's a fair trade off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I watered the orange tree, but I've given up on doing freeze cloth. No frost at all on the car. Air must have been mondo dry, but I didn't check the obs on the interweb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 The weekend is looking mighty damp across the Lone Star State. Any moisture will be welcomed with the ongoing drought. Longer range raises an eyebrow regarding a colder pattern. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Interesting forecast unfolding across the Lone Star State into the weekend and next week. The weekend still looks damp as a robust short wave passes the area increasing our rain chances. Then the challenges begin. The main challenge (in the medium range) will be the Upper Low depicted to our W. Where have we seen this before (last weekend)? The trough axis could certainly be deeper into the Great Basin and across the Rockies and the amount of W Coast Ridging (+pna) will be a big key and where that ridging sets up. Our neighbors along the E Coast will also likely 'warm up' (some hints of SE Ridging) for the first time in a while. Definitely worth watching as the operation models struggle with the Pacific Pattern and how the MJO pulse affects our sensible weather. The ensembles suggest things are pushed a bit further W than the operational models now show. There may well be some wintry weather across portions of the State later next week and that will need to be monitored in the days ahead. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION IN SECOND PARAGRAPH NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 746 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 20 2011 ...HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY... A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ENGULFING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGHING MID-CONTINENT...WHICH WILL GENERALLY LINE UP UNDER THE BASE OF A POLAR VORTEX WAXING AND WANING ACROSS NUNAVUT. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE GENERAL IDEAS. DETAIL-WISE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS OUT PHASE WITH THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA FROM MONDAY ONWARD...ENDING UP WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION...SO DID NOT USE ITS SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AND DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD TO GET MORE REALISTIC PRESSURES...THOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE MOVED BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SURFACE LOWS WHICH SLOWED DOWN THE LOW/FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED OVER THE GEFS MEAN FOR PRESSURE VERIFICATION REASONS. THIS KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH OUR PREVIOUS DAY OF SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WET INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE STORM TRACK/UPPER TROUGH SETS UP FARTHER WEST THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST SIX WEEKS...WHICH COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE JANUARY THAW. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH AND EAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN SNOW WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE EAST...THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER WEST/INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Manly cold in the intermediate range looks like just a glancng blow, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Per the operational Euro, Ed, yes. However, the CMC ensembles had almost half of its members showing that trough further west and much colder for the Southern Plains. Operational runs continue to struggle with the pattern per HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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