Texas/MX Obs And Discussion Thread.

[David Reimer]

0z NAM doesn't bode well for significant snow or sleet in the Metroplex. Maybe a rain/snow mix at times, but certainly no accumulations. Be interesting to see the 0z GFS and ECMWF.

I'm expecting that the warm-bias it's been exhibiting will show itself once the 0Z GFS comes in. If the GFS agrees, then I can relax and watch Alabama be obliterated.

[bubba hotep]

I'm not sure, but I feel like your post was little harsh. First off, 3 inches is not a dusting at DFW, its a significant event. Second, you need to read their forecast discussion and special weather statement. Third, the ECMWF is forecasting a significant winter storm with more sleet than snow which would meet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning. If it falls as mostly snow, then 1 to 3 inches will be enough for a Snow Advisory. Given that 540dm line stays north of the area while 0 line at H85 is south of the are during most of this event on most models, this looks like a sleet event. Thus, the NWS has forecasted a 70% chance of sleet/snow on Sunday. If as much sleet gets involved with this storm as I think, this can potentially be as bad as the other dates I mentioned above, except 2003. Not convinced it will be that extreme yet.

I guess maybe I didn't word that properly. Earlier in the day I had made a comment about the snow fall maps over at Harris that were showing 2-4" and said that I would be shocked to see more than a dusting. I was taking a shot at myself and not at the NWS.

[DFWWeather]

I guess maybe I didn't word that properly. Earlier in the day I had made a comment about the snow fall maps over at Harris that were showing 2-4" and said that I would be shocked to see more than a dusting. I was taking a shot at myself and not at the NWS.

My bad - I just misinterpreted your response.

[BikiniBottom]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the operational GFS. It is performing poorly lately and is out of step with its own ensembles which still show a mighty good chance of significant cold well into deep south Texas before this pattern abates. Another Arctic surge is expected next weekend with a possible third the following week. Although, the latter may be directed more southeastward as per the December pattern. The GFSMOS numbers for next week in DFW are about 8 to 10 degrees too warm if the ensembles are correct in daily temperatures departures nearly 20 below normal, and next Thursday the GFSMOS temperatures are really too warm with the operational run er

oding the Arctic air much too aggressively. Highs in the 40s probably will not occur at DFW until at least Friday (and low 40s at that), and I doubt we will see 50 degrees before the next Arctic surge.

Thank you for the response, and your first post to boot. Unfortunately, I've been so busy, I haven't been able to follow the models as closely as I would like and I keep getting conflicting text messages from various friends. I'm gonna try and catch up now.

At first glance, my NWS forecast looks chilly, but pretty normal. Not even as cold as it's already been numerous times this winter. I hope you guys get some snow up there!

[wall_cloud]

Thought I'd share my upper air analysis from this evening...00Z 1/8/11

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

250 mb

[Flexo]

HGX has entered winter precipitation into the grids for the northern counties of SE TX all the way down to San Jacinto and Walker...

Winter storm watch now for Lufkin. SHV forecasting 1 to 3 in. of snow.

Waiting for the AFD to see if HGX is considering any advisories...

[Flexo]

In HGX's morning discussion, they do mention that a possible winter storm watch/warning or winter weather advisory may be needed later for the far northern counties, but only the mention of winter precip in the zones and grids for now...

Otherwise, a heavy rain event is on the way for Houston with 1-2 inches of rain expected with isolated totals up to 4". There's even a minor severe weather threat for coastal counties...

Fun on the bun

[Srain]

Interesting weekend unfolding across the Lone Star State. Kudos to wall_cloud on his forecast earlier this week. Depending on the timing of the Wednesday/Thursday short wave, another nice over running event may unfold with the cold air still in place.

[Srain]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0644 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2011

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S TX AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...

THE MIDLEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER WILL ACCELERATE EWD

TO THE BIG BEND/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF TX BY THE END OF

THE PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE

VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE

APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE

NOSE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ AND GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING THIS

EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...AND SPREADING EWD TO THE MIDDLE TX

COASTAL PLAIN EARLY SUNDAY.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...BUT MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A

PRONOUNCED CAP WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG.

DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG WAA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT

AN EXPANSIVE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVERNIGHT ACROSS S TX AND THE

MIDDLE TX COAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL SPATIAL WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED ROTATING STORMS /MAINLY TONIGHT/

WITHIN THE LARGER MCS...ALONG THE N EDGE OF THE MID 60S DEWPOINTS

AND S EDGE OF THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE

LOW. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY

THE INITIAL CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING...WHILE

AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE

COAST OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST WAA REGIME.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 01/08/2011

[Ed Lizard]

Day 2 5% general risk reaches parts of Metro Houston.

It'd be tail end of event for us, and SPC isn't really enthusiastic.

AS THE LEAD IMPULSE TRANSLATES TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/ SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS REGION...MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION

MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN GENERALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. BUT

IT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MOSTLY FOCUSED TO THE COOL SIDE OF A

WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE GULF

COAST. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION

MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER

BASED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR...IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE

LOW. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROBABLY

BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE

RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

PARISHES...THOUGH...THE PROBABILITY THAT THIS WILL IMPACT AREAS

INLAND OF THE GULF COAST APPEARS LOW.

1.2 to 1.3 inches Houston metro area per 0Z Euro for rainfall. Thats a good thing. New NAM just under an inch. Not as good. 6Z GFS close. I'll be happy with an inch, but in a potentially dry pattern, I want all the rain I can get,

[TXWXCHX]

1.2 to 1.3 inches Houston metro area per 0Z Euro for rainfall. Thats a good thing. New NAM just under an inch. Not as good. 6Z GFS close. I'll be happy with an inch, but in a potentially dry pattern, I want all the rain I can get,

You and me both, Ed. Hey look, there's a bull's eye over my house...

If the cold slips further/earlier south than expected, I could get some snow. I'm printing out everyone else's hard work for a departmental report this morning! (But I always credit you all for the forecasts I swear)

[Ed Lizard]

You and me both, Ed. Hey look, there's a bull's eye over my house...

If the cold slips further/earlier south than expected, I could get some snow. I'm printing out everyone else's hard work for a departmental report this morning! (But I always credit you all for the forecasts I swear)

I've obviously seen accumlating snows in the Metroplex, where my Mom, two sisters, a brother, and nieces/nephews live.

In Houston, the 3 21st Century snow miracles, none accumulated on the streets.

Austin is the only (other) Texas city I have lived in where I saw accumulations on the street. Would have been December, 1996, I believe, my last semester at grad school before I ran out of money and the oil biz started hiring again. It was about a 2 hour morning dump, maybe 2 or 3 inches, enough to slush the streets, and it was all gone within about 4 hours.

DFW is the only place in Texas I have seen the sunset with snow on the ground.

12Z GFS is a fairly happy solution for much of Central and South Texas (rain wise). Based on near surface and 850 mb temps at 24 and 30 hours (not much precip beyond), may be predicting some kind of ice event in NE Texas.

[Portastorm]

Ed, the Dec 96 snow in Austin actually occurred on a Sunday evening I believe and didn't amount to much. There was an accumulating snow in February 96 on a Saturday moming which quickly dumped several inches and it was all melted by later that afternoon.

Could you clarify what you mean by the 12z GFS having a "fairly happy solution"? For what? Rain?

[Srain]

For our neighbors in N TX, FWD has just updated...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

1136 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.AVIATION...

VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS AND THE LEVEL

OF UNCERTAINTY NEEDS TO BE STRESSED. POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM

SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SE AZ AND IS MOVING EASTWARD. RAIN

WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM VFR CLOUD BASES BEGINNING

AROUND 4Z IN WACO AND 8Z FOR THE METROPLEX. AS THE ATMOSPHERE

CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND COOL...CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LOWER QUICKLY.

MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND 10 OR 11Z AND IFR SHORTLY AFTER.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IN THE METROPLEX

AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF RASN AFTER 15Z AND WILL

TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER 17Z. THIS FORECAST IS ALL DEPENDENT

ON A THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND AS OF

NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES WERE

TO NUDGE WARMER BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE THE PRECIP TYPE

WOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID. GIVEN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL

FROM THIS SYSTEM...THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS

THERE AND WANTED TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME IN THE TAF PACKAGE.

FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TWEAK THE TIMING AND INTENSITY...OR

COULD EVEN TAKE IT COMPLETELY OUT IF THE THERMAL PROFILES WERE TO

WARM.

[DFWWeather]

Dallas/Fort Worth now included in Winter Storm Watch (accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible)

This fits well with the latest 12z data. Wouldn't be surprised if this gets upgraded to a warning later this evening.

[BikiniBottom]

90% snow/sleet is the forecast for Jasper tomorrow, about an hour north of here. My forecast is 90% rain. I'm hoping for a miracle, but I know that's highly unlikely.

[bubba hotep]

Dallas/Fort Worth now included in Winter Storm Watch (accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible)

This fits well with the latest 12z data. Wouldn't be surprised if this gets upgraded to a warning later this evening.

The models have been trending in our favor the last couple of days. Time for them to put the board into DFW Metroplex Storm Mode! I was still skeptical as recent as yesterday morning but the trends continue to be encouraging.

[DFWWeather]

The models have been trending in our favor the last couple of days. Time for them to put the board into DFW Metroplex Storm Mode! I was still skeptical as recent as yesterday morning but the trends continue to be encouraging.

I am as uneasy as the NWS is about thermal profiles though. Honestly, I would like to see a bit deeper colder air. This is a very difficult forecast indeed!

[DFWWeather]

Quick look at incoming 12z ECMWF has the 0 line at H85 to our south with the 540dm line displaced well into Oklahoma for DFW. That bothers me when forecasting a snow event. That looks like sleet to me, although the SKEW T from the ECMWF for same period says snow.

[Ed Lizard]

Quick look at incoming 12z ECMWF has the 0 line at H85 to our south with the 540dm line displaced well into Oklahoma for DFW. That bothers me when forecasting a snow event. That looks like sleet to me, although the SKEW T from the ECMWF for same period says snow.

I'm an amateur at any type of forecasting, including Winter p-type forecasting. I know the magic partial thicknesses and rules of thumb. But whether it is rain or snow seems to depend, to a great deal, at what temperature precip forms. Question on the general board may get more Northern red tags to comment. But I see discussions talk about dendritic growth regions and all, and if it forms as snow and nothing melts it partially or completely on the way down, it stays as snow.

I'm looking at my Pay Per View AccuWeather 6 hour Euro MOS for DFW, and wishing there was 3 hour numbers, because nine tenths fall in a six hour period starting at 2º and 0.6º (Celcius), when it should be a cold rain, and ending 0.7º and minus 0.8º, when it has probably changed to snow. About two more tenths fall after that, as surface temps fall below freezing and 850 mb temps rise to negative 0.5º. Even assuming the Euro is dead spot on, I wouldn't know how to forecast snowfall based on those six hour intervals.

Except to note surface humidities stay fairly high, and anything that doens't evaporate on untreated bridges and overpasses would probably ice at DFW.

[wall_cloud]

I'm an amateur at any type of forecasting, including Winter p-type forecasting. I know the magic partial thicknesses and rules of thumb. But whether it is rain or snow seems to depend, to a great deal, at what temperature precip forms. Question on the general board may get more Northern red tags to comment. But I see discussions talk about dendritic growth regions and all, and if it forms as snow and nothing melts it partially or completely on the way down, it stays as snow.

I'm looking at my Pay Per View AccuWeather 6 hour Euro MOS for DFW, and wishing there was 3 hour numbers, because nine tenths fall in a six hour period starting at 2º and 0.6º (Celcius), when it should be a cold rain, and ending 0.7º and minus 0.8º, when it has probably changed to snow. About two more tenths fall after that, as surface temps fall below freezing and 850 mb temps rise to negative 0.5º. Even assuming the Euro is dead spot on, I wouldn't know how to forecast snowfall based on those six hour intervals.

Except to note surface humidities stay fairly high, and anything that doens't evaporate on untreated bridges and overpasses would probably ice at DFW.

I wouldn't use 850 mb temps to forecast precip type. I also shy away from using partial thicknesses. Sure, they will give a thickness based on the average temperature of a layer but you don't know the thermal variations throughout the layer. You could have a very shallow arctic airmass or a deep, yet marginally cold airmass give the same values for totally different scenarios. The method of choice in my opinion is to analyze model soundings as that will give you an idea of the thermal profile throughout the atmospheric column. It is beyond the scope of a message board post to explain the ins and outs of winter weather forecasting but I'll try to give a few pointers. First thing to look for is the implied presence of dendrites (ice crystals). Look in the column (whatever height it may be) in the -12 to -18 C layer (Dendritic Growth Zone or DGZ). If this layer is saturated, you likely have dendrites. We all know that water freezes at 0 C but in the real atmosphere you tend to get supercooled water droplets instead of ice. Most of these supercooled droplets freeze by the time the temp drops to -12 C. If this layer is dry, you will have a hard time developing snow. In other words, you could have the entire sounding below freezing but still get freezing rain (image below).

Observed freezing rain sounding...

Assuming we have saturation in the DGZ, now we want to examine the sounding for the presence of any layers that are above freezing. If the column is subfreezing, you can expected snow most likely.

If we have a warm layer, especially in the lowest 4000 feet or so, it can really complicate the situation. This could give us rain if the warm layer persists to the surface (and is deep enough), sleet or freezing rain for moderate warm layers with an adequately deep sub freezing layer at the surface, or snow (if the warm layer is very shallow). I won't get into the specifics on this...there is plenty of information to google. You can also try this site: http://www.wdtb.noaa...oc/lessons.html. I'll close with a few example soundings.

Freezing rain (classic):

Sleet (notice freezing layer at surface deeper than in freezing rain example):

There are other complicating factors such as seeder feeders, snow with temps above freezing, snow grains...etc that are more complicated that I want to explain right now. I got off shift at 8 AM and haven't slept yet. I is tired.

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't use 850 mb temps to forecast precip type. I also shy away from using partial thicknesses. Sure, they will give a thickness based on the average temperature of a layer but you don't know the thermal variations throughout the layer. You could have a very shallow arctic airmass or a deep, yet marginally cold airmass give the same values for totally different scenarios. The method of choice in my opinion is to analyze model soundings as that will give you an idea of the thermal profile throughout the atmospheric column. It is beyond the scope of a message board post to explain the ins and outs of winter weather forecasting but I'll try to give a few pointers. First thing to look for is the implied presence of dendrites (ice crystals). Look in the column (whatever height it may be) in the -12 to -18 C layer (Dendritic Growth Zone or DGZ). If this layer is saturated, you likely have dendrites. We all know that water freezes at 0 C but in the real atmosphere you tend to get supercooled water droplets instead of ice. Most of these supercooled droplets freeze by the time the temp drops to -12 C. If this layer is dry, you will have a hard time developing snow. In other words, you could have the entire sounding below freezing but still get freezing rain (image below).

Observed freezing rain sounding...

Assuming we have saturation in the DGZ, now we want to examine the sounding for the presence of any layers that are above freezing. If the column is subfreezing, you can expected snow most likely.

If we have a warm layer, especially in the lowest 4000 feet or so, it can really complicate the situation. This could give us rain if the warm layer persists to the surface (and is deep enough), sleet or freezing rain for moderate warm layers with an adequately deep sub freezing layer at the surface, or snow (if the warm layer is very shallow). I won't get into the specifics on this...there is plenty of information to google. You can also try this site: http://www.wdtb.noaa...oc/lessons.html. I'll close with a few example soundings.

Freezing rain (classic):

Sleet (notice freezing layer at surface deeper than in freezing rain example):

There are other complicating factors such as seeder feeders, snow with temps above freezing, snow grains...etc that are more complicated that I want to explain right now. I got off shift at 8 AM and haven't slept yet. I is tired.

Awesome post, thanks for posting that!

[Srain]

Take pics, or it didn't happen...

[DFWWeather]

Take pics, or it didn't happen...

Winter Storm Warning for DFW coming soon???

[bubba hotep]

Winter Storm Warning for DFW coming soon???

Ground zero IMBY out here in the NE burbs.....

[TXWXCHX]

Winter Storm Warning for DFW coming soon???

According to this latest missive, they're putting all the pressure on the "middle crew" to make the decision whether or not to issue a warning for North Texas... poor lil' middle crew.

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas

927 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2011

Update...

precipitation has developed rapidly over North Texas this evening

in response to widespread ascent associated with deepening upper

level low pressure area digging in from the west. Getting some

isolated thunder at times and additional activity is approaching

from the southwest. Will include isolated thunderstorms in

tonight's portion of the forecast for the evening update.

Main issue is onset of wintry precipitation and exactly where

and how significant accumulations will be. 00z NAM is colder

overall but also a bit behind schedule with respect to the onset

of precipitation. Though a few reports of sleet have already been

called in...surface temperatures remain fairly warm and feel any

sleet or snow that falls overnight has very little chance to

accumulate. Would prefer to wait for additional data and allow middle

crew to assess the situation before making a decision on a Winter

Weather Advisory or perhaps even a warning. Timing would most

likely be during the early morning through middle afternoon hours on

Sunday based on forecast temperature & moisture profiles.

(Emphasis mine)

So we're already hearing of some sleet coming in... light cold rain here, winds ENE 8mph, pressure rising and 48 degrees. Perfect for a BBQ!

[Ed Lizard]

Glass half emtpy, looks like GFS 0 hour sounding might be a tad closer to reality at Fort Worth than NAM 0Z sounding. Hoping FWD balloon site is close enough to FTW for an accurate comparison. 2 meter temps, NAM Is warmer/closer to the 51ºF FWD/47ºF FTW 0Z ob. Tough forecast in the Metroplex, even warmer GFS 850 mb temps are around/less than a degree above freezing in the area. Trying to apply something from explanation on growth region, GFS at tau 18 looks like/darn close to a snow sounding. Mid shift FWD mets will earn their checks tonight on issuing/not issuing WWA or WSW and how they break out the counties.

18Z soundings from GFS

ETA- I think I can guess where the warm front near which any tornadoes may occur, and the t-storms inland, I have a feeling that could be mid level meso low someone mentioned as possibly robbing DFW area of moisture.

Maybe that convective blob, wishcasting/trend casting, may get into DFW.

[Chicago Storm]

[wall_cloud]

that south TX squall line packed quite a punch for the first half of January.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CRP&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

717 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0330 AM TSTM WND GST ALICE 27.76N 98.07W

01/09/2011 M67.00 MPH JIM WELLS TX ASOS

0352 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 W ROBSTOWN 27.80N 97.68W

01/09/2011 NUECES TX NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST SIDE OF ROBSTOWN...TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. SHEET

METAL WRAPPED AROUND POWER POLES.

0353 AM TSTM WND GST DRISCOLL 27.67N 97.75W

01/09/2011 E60.00 MPH NUECES TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED EST 60 MPH WINDS

0353 AM HAIL DRISCOLL 27.67N 97.75W

01/09/2011 E1.00 INCH NUECES TX TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITHIN DRISCOLL. POWER OUTAGES ALSO

BEING REPORTED.

0354 AM TSTM WND DMG 13 WNW CORPUS CHRISTI 27.78N 97.49W

01/09/2011 NUECES TX NWS EMPLOYEE

SEMI TRUCK FLIPPED NEAR THE 5 POINTS WALMART IN CALALLEN.

STREET SIGNS DOWN. SHOPPING CARTS BLOWN ONTO HIGHWAY.

0402 AM TSTM WND GST CORPUS CHRISTI 27.71N 97.29W

01/09/2011 M69.00 MPH NUECES TX ASOS

ASOS AT CORPUS CHRISTI AIRPORT REPORTING 69 MPH WINDS.

0402 AM HAIL CORPUS CHRISTI 27.71N 97.29W

01/09/2011 E0.50 INCH NUECES TX NWS EMPLOYEE

MARBLE SIZED HAIL AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI AIRPORT.

0416 AM TSTM WND GST CORPUS CHRISTI 27.71N 97.29W

01/09/2011 M59.00 MPH NUECES TX NWS EMPLOYEE

59 MPH WIND MEASURED IN CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG SOUTH PADRE

ISLAND DRIVE.

0424 AM HAIL 1 NW ARANSAS PASS 27.90N 97.15W

01/09/2011 E1.00 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0424 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 W ROBSTOWN 27.80N 97.69W

01/09/2011 NUECES TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON THE

WEST SIDE OF ROBSTOWN. SHEET METAL WAS WRAPPED AROUND

POWER POLES.

0430 AM TSTM WND DMG ROCKPORT 28.04N 97.05W

01/09/2011 ARANSAS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES AND TREES UPROOTED ALONG A

TWO MILE PATH FROM LIVE OAK ELEMENTARY TO THE

INTERSECTION OF NOPAL AND AUSTIN.

0440 AM TSTM WND DMG BLOOMINGTON 28.63N 96.88W

01/09/2011 VICTORIA TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CARPORT ROOF BLOWN OFF

0440 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 E PLACEDO 28.67N 96.77W

01/09/2011 VICTORIA TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GUARDRAIL DAMAGE TO PLACEDO BRIDGE. POWER LINES DOWN IN

THE AREA AND STREET SIGNS DOWN.

0440 AM TORNADO 2 S VICTORIA 28.80N 96.98W

01/09/2011 VICTORIA TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CAR BLOWN INTO DITCH ON HIGHWAY 87 ONE MILE NORTH OF 447.

DRIVER REPORTED A TORNADO.

0445 AM TSTM WND DMG VICTORIA 28.82N 96.98W

01/09/2011 VICTORIA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE BLOWN ONTO TRAILOR HOME AT 13000 BLOCK OF

HIGHWAY 87 NORTH.

0445 AM TSTM WND DMG PLACEDO 28.67N 96.83W

01/09/2011 VICTORIA TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PORTION OF ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE AND BARN ON HIGHWAY 87

JUST SOUTH OF FM 616.

0500 AM TSTM WND DMG PORT LAVACA 28.61N 96.62W

01/09/2011 CALHOUN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

FEW ASPHALT SHINGLES BLOWN OFF RESIDENCE.

&&

$$

[bubba hotep]

Temps slowly falling here but so far it has been a swing and a miss. NWS still holding tight at 2-4" for my area but I wonder if that will get revised down again later this morning.