Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1020 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010 TXC481-291815- /O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0083.101229T1620Z-101229T1815Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WHARTON TX- 1020 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 1215 PM CST * AT 1020 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER PIERCE AND DANEVANG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1039 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... NORTHERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... EASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 1130 AM CST * AT 1033 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF NEEDVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLING-IAGO TO MARKHAM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHARTON TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WHARTON TO 10 MILES WEST OF BAY CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...WEST COLUMBIA...VAN VLECK... SUGAR LAND...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PLEAK...PECAN GROVE...MISSOURI CITY AND FIRST COLONY.<BR clear=all> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291650Z - 291745Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SE TX LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN SE TX ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S F AT CORPUS CHRISTI TO AROUND 60 F JUST SOUTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA WHERE A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT IS ONGOING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MAY INTENSIFY CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND WILL HELP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE NEWD INTO THE HOUSTON AND BEAUMONT AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CREATING ENOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. THUS...A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX. ..BROYLES.. 12/29/2010 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 A hint of rotation at the Southern end of that line segment? Wunderground loads a lot faster, but the board doesn't like the Wundreground images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 wow, deluge for hou. b/cs only managing some 40dbz rain showers, and that area needs the rain more than most to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 Training storms slowly inching N into the Houston Metro. Should make for an interesting commute, although traffic should be as bit lighter as some folks have the Holidays off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 There appears to be some weak rotation near Ft Bend County (SW of Houston Metro). 1.5 inches so far and still counting. Areas S of Houston have seen 2+. Great news for our drought parched area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvgram Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Some very wicked and close lightning strikes here in the past hour to 90 minutes. According to level 3 storm totals, I'm right at 3". Rain gauge says 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 Getting some reports of flooded roads now. With all the leaf debris, not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 SW of Houston Metro... FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 321 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010 TXC481-292315- /O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0084.101229T2121Z-101229T2315Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WHARTON TX- 321 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 515 PM CST * AT 321 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF WHARTON AND EL CAMPO NEAR PIERCE. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WERE OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 352 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010 TXC201-300045- /O.CON.KHGX.FA.Y.0085.000000T0000Z-101230T0045Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ HARRIS TX- 352 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010 ...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... AT 350 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 5 OR 6 PM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON. FLOODING OF FEEDER ROADS HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45 AND SPUR 5 NEAR THE UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON AND ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 225. FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...AND SECONDARY ROADS IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 From our HCFCD Met... Urban Flood Advisory for Harris County until 645pm.Training storms along US 59 producing 1-3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time leading to significant street flooding. Appears a low level convergence boundary has been produced along US 59 which continues to provide a focus for thunderstorm development from Wharton to Downtown Houston to Kingwood. ALERT stations have recorded 2.0-2.85 inches over Keegans and Brays Bayous, lower White Oak, upper Halls in the last 2-3 hours. Current threat is widespread street flooding in the areas of excessive rainfall....however nearly stalled training within this band does raise concern for more significant flood problems should the train continue for the next 1-2 hours with current rainfall rates especially over urban Harris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 worse than i thought. CLL only managed 0.15" today. happy that the houston metro cashed in, though. iah had 1.38" already at 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 worse than i thought. CLL only managed 0.15" today. We're waiting on you to get back. The pattern sure looks interesting as we head into the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 What a change in the pattern. After months of a NW flow I think many will welcome the rain... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 737 AM EST THU DEC 30 2010 VALID 12Z MON JAN 03 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 06 2011 ...WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST... A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD...STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY/EASTERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION ANCHORED IN PLACE BY RIDGING IN/NEAR WESTERN CANADA. OUTSIDE THE 00Z UKMET...THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS EVOLVING IDEA AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL SPREAD ACROSS THE MAP...AND ARE INDEPENDENTLY SUPPORTED BY THEIR ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...SO USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD TO DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THIS PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...AND LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT A NEW GYRE ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA WILL BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE HUDSON BAY SYSTEM. AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE VORTEX...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WAVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY WET FOR A LA NINA/COLD ENSO EPISODE ACROSS THE GULF COAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS FLOW REGIME. ...UPDATED PRELIMS AGAIN USED ECMWF AND ECMWF AS A BASE WITH BOTH CLOSER TO ENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF AND CMC OPERATIONAL MID WEEK. CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING SLOWLY SWD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CA COAST WILL BRING MORE RAINS INTO CENTRAL AND SOCAL THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST DOWN THE CENTRAL COASTAL RANGES SUNDAY THEN DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE SOCAL COASTAL RANGES MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS LIGHTER MODEL OUPUT BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS TUES INTO WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY HEAVIER OVER COASTAL SOCAL AND NRN BAJA BY MID WEEK. PARALLEL TO THE COAST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN STEAM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION WITH H850 INFLOW POOLING HIGHER PW VALUES ALONG A DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE GULF COAST FROM NE TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE WED INTO THE WEEKEND . MID LEVEL BLOCKING AND A LARGE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY RETURNS TO NRN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF. STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ROTH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I noticed some of the latest runs of the GFS insists that a southwestly flow will persist across the gulf coast states for a few days from Jan. 4th thru at least Jan 9th or so. Hopefully, some of the other parts of Texas like Waco, San Antonio, San Angelo, Austin, Corpus Christi, and Brownsville can receive some beneficial rains out of this patttern if it indeed develops as forecasted. The latest GFS 12/31/10 00Z run is not quite as appealing to me as some of the earlier GFS runs, however I think we all will take whatever moisture we can get out of this recent pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 We're now two for two via the GFS for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 While the GFS backed off the mega snow for TX, the models (virtually all of them) do show a storm. What is equally impressive is the strength of the Arctic Air and very strong Arctic High pressure showing up, run after run. In fact the 00Z ensembles strongly agree with a very chilly pattern and disturbances in the Upper flow passing by as the cold air is in place. The $64,000.00 is will there be moisture available when that cold air arrives and how soon or fast does the Arctic air surge S. Also is the timing of those short waves. Even the 06Z GFS shows a near 1060mb Arctic high near AK/Western Canada. Should make for an interesting week, regardless. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 354 AM EST SAT JAN 01 2011 VALID 12Z WED JAN 05 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA THIS FIRST WEEK OF 2011 WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING EPISODE AS A HUGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WORKS WSW FROM SRN GREENLAND TO N CENTRAL CANADA WITH ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD. FARTHER S...LOW HEIGHTS AND COLD AIR WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS MUCH OF S CENTRAL AND SERN CANADA INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48. THE LOCATION OF THE COLDEST AIR IS A GOOD FIT TO TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY WORKING WSW FROM SRN GREENLAND. AS DURING MUCH OF DECEMBER...THE REGION E OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MAXIMUMS. OUR PRELIM CHOICE FOR A BLEND TODAY...HAD A HIGHER PROPORTION THAN USUAL OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LOWER THAN USUAL COMPONENT OF THE ECMWF. IT WAS PREDOMINANTLY 50% OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...30% OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...AND 20% OF THE CANADIAN. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO OUR SKEPTICISM AT THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD IN THE WAY THE ECMWF HANDLED A PAIR OF UPPER VORTICES AFFECTING THE W COAST STATES. WE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF FOR THE W COAST STATES AS WE ENTERED THE MEDIUM RANGE. WHILE THE SOLUTION FROM OFF THE CA COAST ACROSS THE SWRN STATES IS MURKY AT BEST DAYS 3-5/TUE-THU...OF GREATER IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT THE 00Z/01 GEFS MEAN IS A BIT COLDER THAN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THIS PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. THIS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLOCKING MOVING ACROSS FAR NERN AND NRN CANADA. FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 This is getting mighty interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This is getting mighty interesting... Finally a legit threat to track? As usual, timing, timing, timing! One thing does look for sure, locked in cold... ugh! I was actually looking forward to the much hyped La Nina warm Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 HGX Year In Review has been posted. Hopefully our other TX members will add theirs as well... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXPNSHGX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 4 for 5 via the 18Z. The GFS is certainly being persistent regarding next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BikiniBottom Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Get us some snow, srain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Shades of Dec 1983 in the 18z GFS ... something to watch in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Shades of Dec 1983 in the 18z GFS ... something to watch in the mid range. Yep. The signals are certainly worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Shades of Dec 1983 in the 18z GFS ... something to watch in the mid range. You really think we have a shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00Z looks to go warm for this threat but at least it temps us with some fantasy land snows. I think this threat is worth tracking and will be looking to see what the models spit out this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 The GFS suggests a big dump of Arctic air in the 192 time frame into Canada and CONUS. Several feature worth watching in the days ahead. Moisture mid week has increased and although light, it is on shore versus offshore. Although the 00ZGFS backs off the 'cold' for next weekend, the storm is still there. What is note worthy via the medium range is a 1060mb High in Western Canada and a 1050+ in the N Rockies. Some mighty cold air is poised to spill S beginning with a frontal passage on Friday, if the GFS is correct with reinforcing shots of colder air. Infact the GFS suggests a prolonged period of wintry precip in the longer range. All in all a very interesting pattern is unfolding and certainly bears watching, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Mighty close to Jorge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 You really think we have a shot? It's not the normal fantasy from the GFS...yes, there's a high chance of some very frigid air mass...but we are too far south, it's officially watch time for some vodka cold Mighty close to Jorge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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