Srain Posted November 11, 2010 Share Posted November 11, 2010 Welcome and discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Pacific air and frontogenesis along the Front Range should fire off some storms...and change to snow in the NW Panhandle... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST THU NOV 11 2010 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRAIN ALOFT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER ROCKIES AND RIDGING FROM CENTRAL GULF TO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. STG/POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM CO SWWD ACROSS NWRN NM AND CENTRAL AZ. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS MOST OF CO/NM OVERNIGHT...REACHING FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SSWWD TOWARD ELP BY END OF PERIOD. SFC FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z AS WARM FRONT FROM NERN NM ESEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE...THEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER CENTRAL OK AND INTO OZARKS OF SRN MO. AS MID-UPPER TROUGH APCHS...COLD FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS. FRONTAL ZONE EFFECTIVELY SHOULD BECOME REALIGNED FROM ERN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE SWWD ACROSS ERN NM...WHILE RETREATING NWD SLOWLY ACROSS SERN KS AND MO. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO IA... ISOLATED SFC-BASED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS NE TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD AND WEAKEN WITH SFC DIABATIC COOLING/STABILIZATION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALREADY ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP THAT COVERS PORTIONS KS/NEB. PRIND TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THIS REGION WHILE ALSO EXPANDING EWD AND SWD DURING REMAINDER PERIOD...CONNECTING WITH CONVECTION NOW BUILDING OVER PORTIONS ERN KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF... 1. ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF REGION... 2. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT AIDED BY BROAD/30-40 KT LLJ COVERING MUCH OF REGION... 3. STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND 4. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT OVER HIGH PLAINS PORTION OF TSTM OUTLOOK...RELATED TO DCVA AHEAD OF TROUGH. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND WEAK FOR AOA-5% PROBABILITIES...GIVEN EXPECTED POSTFRONTAL AND/OR LINEAR NATURE OF MUCH OF TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS WEAKNESS OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR. SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...BUT POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED/DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TOO MEAGER FOR UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES WITHIN THIS REGIME. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO MAY BECOME ENHANCED INVOF OK FRONTAL ZONE AND BENEATH LLJ...BUT ALSO OVERLYING DIABATIC STABILIZATION OF NEAR-SFC LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 11/12/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Our weather totally beats your weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Thundersnow in Amarillo this morning. Nice. SPECI KAMA 121211Z 32015G24KT 1/4SM R04/4000V5500FT +TSSN VV005 00/M01 A3026 RMK AO2 PRESRR OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS P0002 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Dumas, TX... Amarillo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX AND SCNTRL/SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 121659Z - 121830Z ...LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEEPENING FROM FORT WORTH METRO NWD TO NEAR ADA OK SINCE 16Z. STORM INTENSIFICATION APPEARS RELATED TO WEAK INSOLATION/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND MODIFIED FWD SOUNDING SUGGESTS AROUND 865 J/KG MLCAPE. LATEST VWP-DERIVED HODOGRAPH FROM FWD EXHIBITED AROUND 20 KTS OF SFC-1KM SHEAR AND AROUND 50 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 4-6 KM. GIVEN LOW LCLS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE THROUGH NCNTRL/NERN TX AND SCNTRL/SERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KDFW/KDAL AIRPORTS 1745-1830Z. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THAT GIVEN INCREASING LINEAR FORCING...MODE WILL TRANSITION TO LARGELY LINE SEGMENTS WITH PERHAPS EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL TO BOW STRUCTURES. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OWING TO LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION. ..RACY.. 11/12/2010 ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Screen grabs from earlier Thundersnow http://www.stormrepo...ember122010.htm Only about 600 miles, and 1050 meters, from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 i see clouds with rain! popcorn junk to the southwest right now. still waiting for much of anything here in brazos co., but it's nice to know there's snow at the other side of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Thank you for posting a Texas thread here... pop-up thunderstorms along the front just passed through here. Interesting to see what appears to be a gravity wave sweeping from just south of FW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Had just over an 1" of rain yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 a grand total of 0.09" over the last three days. horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 we just can't catch a break. rain is done and we only got 0.16" i think that means we've gotten about 0.40" total since the latter half of september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Well, finally some rain over night, but not much. Still looks like an area of Low Pressure will develop along the S TX Coastal Regions tomorrow with much better rain chances tomorrow midday into Monday. I see the models have flipped back to our first real 'Blue Norther' of the season just in time for Thaksgiving. Some TX AFD's concerning the Thanksgiving Week Arctic Front... San Angelo... JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PACKAGE...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING. Dallas/Ft Worth... BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTRUSION OF VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS. OF COURSE...THIS IS A FEW DAYS BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE... BUT A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS USUALLY BRINGS A WIDE SPREAD FREEZE TO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE COMING DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 we just can't catch a break. rain is done and we only got 0.16" i think that means we've gotten about 0.40" total since the latter half of september. We've gotten just shy of 1/2"since the end of September... actually much better than I anticipated considering the development of such a strong La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Got another .03" overnightBright and sunny with mid-60s today. Gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Interesting snip from Brownville this afternoon. Ah, the good ole days of great disco's out of KBRO... AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INITIALLY OVER THE BERING SEA BUT CENTERED OVER ALASKA ON TUESDAY WILL UNLEASH ITS FURY BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUSH SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND THE DESOLATE PLAINS WHERE THERE IS LITTLE MORE THAN BARBED WIRE FENCES TO IMPEDE ITS STAMPEDE. A 1030 MB HIGH WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONT KNOCKING ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS` DOOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE DRY AIR. TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THIS EARLY TASTE OF NORTHERN AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 low rain chances for the next day or two, but most of it looks to keep east of here. i think we've been missed just about every direction by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 good news... according to CF's location statistics, we already have 14 texas posters on amex. that's tied for 12th most of any state, and tied for second of the states not on the east coast (OH is first). i'm hoping that down the road we'll have the activity for event threads for good storms like the other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 good news... according to CF's location statistics, we already have 14 texas posters on amex. that's tied for 12th most of any state, and tied for second of the states not on the east coast (OH is first). i'm hoping that down the road we'll have the activity for event threads for good storms like the other areas. Great Job. The word is getting around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 widespread showers passing between houston and b/cs right now. had one pass through here an hour or so ago with a clap of thunder... very little rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Great Job. The word is getting around... yeah, now that this is americanwx, hopefully we can begin to build a good-sized texas wx community. i know khou does a good job for that area, but it'd be great to finally get one on a full weather board that could cover the state. texas has enough people that we should be able to get active discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 good news... according to CF's location statistics, we already have 14 texas posters on amex. that's tied for 12th most of any state, and tied for second of the states not on the east coast (OH is first). i'm hoping that down the road we'll have the activity for event threads for good storms like the other areas. That would be very cool since there are a lot of interesting weather extremes in Texas. I spent the last couple of years out East and it was very informative and entertaining to follow the big storms on this board, esp. last winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 That would be very cool since there are a lot of interesting weather extremes in Texas. I spent the last couple of years out East and it was very informative and entertaining to fallow the big storms on this board, esp. last winter! I'm not the most well educated weather enthusiast in Texas but I'm here, glad to help build this community up. Texas is not just Houston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 Great to see our TX folks finding the new board. And yes, as the Topic Title states, we are like a whole other country with many climates. This is not a Houston centered community either. The 12Z GFS suggests the Arctic Front may be a bit slower arriving, but a very chilly 1040mb+ dome of Arctic High Pressure is depicted dropping S into the Plains. With that said, I believe the models will struggle with the shallow nature of the Arctic Air and the front may infact arrive sooner that it's showing at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Great to see our TX folks finding the new board. And yes, as the Topic Title states, we are like a whole other country with many climates. This is not a Houston centered community either.The 12Z GFS suggests the Arctic Front may be a bit slower arriving, but a very chilly 1040mb+ dome of Arctic High Pressure is depicted dropping S into the Plains. With that said, I believe the models will struggle with the shallow nature of the Arctic Air and the front may infact arrive sooner that it's showing at this range... figures that the first good cold shot is over thanksgiving when i'm away in indiana. would love to experience a hefty cold shot here. actually, nice t-storm firing a county south of here right now. just damp and dreary here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 0.26" of rain today and last night. not a lot, but we'll take whatever we can get. looks done for now. no rain 'til next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 I'm looking at a possible severe event somewhere across the Lone Star State next week. These November Arctic blasts have a history of causing trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Good morning. Should be a breezy/chilly day in full sunshine. Enjoy! The Arctic Intrusion is still looking likely next week and just perhaps a reinforcing shot of even colder air to follow. Some timing differences between the GFS and Euro, but it does appear that a cross polar flow may well shape up bringing some mighty chilly air S. We will need to watch for any frozen precip in the Plains that may aid in less air mass modification in the longer range. It's hard to believe almost a year ago we were mentioning some of the same things. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 yeah, now that this is americanwx, hopefully we can begin to build a good-sized texas wx community. i know khou does a good job for that area, but it'd be great to finally get one on a full weather board that could cover the state. texas has enough people that we should be able to get active discussion. Count me in... the weather might be boring today, but wait a minute - it'll change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 65F hereFull sun, nice temp.... Too bad the winds make it frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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