Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks, I always wondered what height level to look at.for some clue. I'm assuming the red numbers in the closed off low are pretty imprexxive. The 700mb level is usually where you look at for lower level moisture content, lift, and in winter it's the level for snow growth (makes snow:liquid ratios higher). It's also the level you look at for ideal lift. In this situation, the omega is indicating rapid lift in the lower atmosphere, which usually indicates a deformation band, intense frontogenesis, or the like. It also corresponds in this text extraction to the highest precipitation rates: Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1022.7 1020.5 1019.1 1018.0 1015.7 1010.9 1005.1 1005.4 1010.7 1013.9 1015.6 1016.4 1016.5 1014.8 1014.9 Mean SLP (mb): 1023.5 1021.3 1019.9 1018.7 1016.5 1011.7 1006.0 1006.3 1011.6 1014.8 1016.4 1017.2 1017.3 1015.7 1015.7 2m agl Tmp (F): 25.5 35.7 33.2 29.1 30.3 33.7 32.1 31.0 26.2 31.6 26.5 22.2 21.8 31.0 30.2 2m agl Dewpt(F): 22.1 30.4 31.4 28.4 29.3 31.6 30.5 29.6 22.5 25.0 22.3 20.1 20.4 26.0 29.1 2m agl RH (%): 87 81 93 97 96 92 94 95 86 76 84 92 94 81 95 10m agl Dir: 207 262 321 32 47 44 21 345 318 302 284 279 256 211 190 10m agl Spd(kt): 3 6 2 5 7 12 15 16 13 12 8 6 2 5 4 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.18 0.83 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.21 1.04 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.11 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sfc CINH (J/kg): -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 233.7 106.4 95.5 152.6 167.1 267.9 203.1 39.5 67.0 41.7 75.5 105.6 57.5 110.0 148.1 Precip H20 (in): 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.42 0.65 0.67 0.71 0.50 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.26 0.37 0.38 Lifted Index(C): 11.9 11.1 15.3 17.6 13.6 12.7 13.0 15.7 16.7 15.6 14.1 13.2 13.2 9.9 9.7 700mb VV(-ub/s): -0.3 -1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 4.0 16.2 7.0 -2.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 0.7 -0.4 from Model Output Site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres the 18z clown maps w/ratios standard 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can't remember the last time I observed rain after a retreating arctic airmass and a northerly wind component. Interesting event for sure. I don't think PHL will see any rain, perhaps some sleet though, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just a side note, just look how dynamic this system is down south, tornado warnings starting to fire in FL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres a better look at the v v's during the peak time. The higher the - number is the more lift, creating heavier precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just a side note, just look how dynamic this system is down south, tornado warnings starting to fire in FL now. Folsom - where did you get that radar image from? Is it PC software that you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Folsom - where did you get that radar image from? Is it PC software that you use? He's using GRLevel2. GRLevelX--tremendously great product. Combine it with a data package and you have a monstrously awesome weather tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It gives me confidence that those ratio maps are showing the sub 10:1 ratios in central NJ, which makes sense given how warm the BL is. Even if its all snow, the snow will get rimed to hell. heres the 18z clown maps w/ratios standard 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Folsom - where did you get that radar image from? Is it PC software that you use? It's called GRLevel2 Analyst. Just search it on google or whatever. I'd post the site here, but don't know if it's allowed. VERY good software, if you follow severe wx, it's the program to have. Analyst is a little pricey, but they have a cheaper version, GR3 that is only around 70 dollars. But trust me, it's worth it. There is also a 10 day trial period to try it out. If you decide to get it or whatever, just pm me, or if you have any questions about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How does the map w/ ratios show zero precipitation in chester county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He's using GRLevel2. GRLevelX--tremendously great product. Combine it with a data package and you have a monstrously awesome weather tool. Great, thank you! I will have to look into this. Looks like a very awesome weather tool indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Quick question, since I can't interpret VV's and the physics invloved, is there a possibility of low level convection some where in NJ? Doubt low level, every sounding I've seen says its very stable up to almost 700 mb (10,000 feet). The instability is above that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres th3 18z rgem the area is in 25mm+ with a 38mm peak around elkton md...For conversion 2.5 mm is .1 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How does the map w/ ratios show zero precipitation in chester county? It doesn't. It shows the color for 6-8" of snow. Follow the color gradients. Sometimes they're very hard to follow because of the repetition of color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres th3 18z rgem the area is in 25mm+ with a 38mm peak around elkton md...For conversion 2.5 mm is .1 qpf That's juicy. All snow at that point as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ray told me he just upped his totals to 6-12 after seeing the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ray told me he just upped his totals to 6-12 after seeing the rgem Upped his totals for what region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ray told me he just upped his totals to 6-12 after seeing the rgem Stop putting words in my mouth Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upped his totals for what region? I generally only forecast for Trenton. Last storm I forecast for NYC just because I had a dispute with a couple weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It doesn't. It shows the color for 6-8" of snow. Follow the color gradients. Sometimes they're very hard to follow because of the repetition of color. Thanks, I notice that now. The color for 6-8 is basically white and I didn't really pay attention to the legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I generally only forecast for Trenton. Last storm I forecast for NYC just because I had a dispute with a couple weenies You will laugh at me - for a blip second there tony (rainshadow) crossed my mind. what a day....my apologies. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You will laugh at me - for a blip second there tony (rainshadow) crossed my mind. what a day....my apologies. lol Actually I consider that a big compliment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM doesn't look like all snow may lose a little at beginning. Still a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres the color map that illustrates what i posted on the b/w map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tom, I wish they had thermals for the RGEM. I'd love to see something besides surface to H7 and H5 thicknesses and that BS algorithm. EDIT: Just checked my AccuPro. On the 12Z GGEM, hour 27 has the 0C line at 850 running right along the Delaware River, then hour 30 pushes it just to the NW of PHL. By hour 36, the line crashes offshore in time for the yummy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 people are going to love the 6hr gfs plots from hr 30 to hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea GFS is about a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Freezing line runs RIGHT up 95 at 36 then off the coast by 42. Foot easily just nw of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 for PHL specifically, the 18Z GFS looks to be light slop to light rain to bombs away. At 18Z Wednesday (24hrs), the 0C line at 850mb stretches along the Delaware River. That's as far as it gets. Then the heavy stuff moves in Wednesday night. At hour 36, it has the .75-1.00 QPF line covering all of NJ except extreme NW NJ. 1.00-1.25" goes from Belmar, NJ-->New Hope, PA-->Lancaster, PA-->west of BWI-->west of DCA. There is still more snowfall coming at this point. NCEP is stuck at 36. We broke the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Freezing line runs RIGHT up 95 at 36 then off the coast by 42. Foot easily just nw of the city. I wonder how much of the QPF is actually snow between 24 and 30 for Philly. Certainly looks like the crap snow with low ratios and sleet during that time. Verbatim probably like 6-8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.