Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREF Total precip I have no clue why some members are missing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 15z SREF has a nice increase in snow accum probablily in area. 4 inch in 12 hour likely accross area. Some 25% chance of 8" in 12-hour starting to show up. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_15z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the ones he posted are 10:1, I posted the ones with ratios because they will be lower, the 10:1 maps usually are way over done on the WRF but here their unrealistic selves are for the area Vicious gradients there. Going from 2" to 20" in about 50-60 miles. SREF a little farther west and way more precip to the west when compared to 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 composite radar hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hpc updates Day 1 Day 2 not updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM IS the wet one during the snow portion, though. EC numbers are close to the GFS. Quick question, since I can't interpret VV's and the physics invloved, is there a possibility of low level convection some where in NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 from hr 27-30 nam has over an inch an hr snows. Drops .4-5 in a 3 hr period over se pa through northern del Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 15z SREF has a nice increase in snow accum probablily in area. 4 inch in 12 hour likely accross area. Some 25% chance of 8" in 12-hour starting to show up. http://www.meteo.psu...robsnwloop.html The ETA members made a huge jump from the 9z run, the old school ETA operational model also huge jump NW with qpf, 18z NAM will probably follow suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 through hr 36 .8-1 qpf from balt to lns to ukt to levittown to acy in that bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 looks like a solid 6-10 storm for the region... prob some lollies up to 12 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 through hr 36 .8-1 qpf from balt to lns to ukt to levittown to acy in that bullseye according to twisterdata skew-t, it's pretty much all snow....solid 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 should we even trust the Nam at this point. Total precip through h39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres the 15z eta and the peak wrf at its peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 should we even trust the Nam at this point. Total precip through h39 go off the 0z and 12z runs. But, yea this is the nam's srefs, and other mesos timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey Noreaster07 whats your thinking on the Reading area? we were told to expect 5-10" this morning now its 1-3" around here I don't really forecast too much anymore, my original thinking was 6-10, today made me cut that back in mind to 4-8 for Berks, but if there is a very tight gradient (which I think was over done on the 12z american models) don't be surprised if NW sections (Bernville and NW) of Berks only get like 2-4, while, southeast (Birdsboro and SE) Berks could rake in 7-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18Z NAM qpf looks similar to 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Quick question, since I can't interpret VV's and the physics invloved, is there a possibility of low level convection some where in NJ? Absolutely. Thundersnow is definitely on the table with the level of dynamics we're talking about. That's some of what's depicted as falling in the upper right image. If you look on the NCEP site at the H7 (700mb) level: look at the tightly packed red lines under the closed contour of the H7 low (over NE MD, NJ, SE PA)--that is omega, which is defined as "A term used to describe vertical motion in the atmosphere. The "omega equation" used in numerical weather models is composed of two terms, the "differential vorticity advection" term and the "thickness advection" term. Put more simply, omega is determined by the amount of spin (or large scale rotation) and warm (or cold) advection present in the atmosphere. On a weather forecast chart, high values of omega (or a strong omega field) relate to upward vertical motion (UVV) in the atmosphere. If this upward vertical motion is strong enough and in a sufficiently moist airmass, precipitation results." This means that the air in these "high omega" areas is rapidly rising, and that convective potential is there. With a bombing low and being in the CCB, I would definitely think that convection and thunder is definitely possible under this deformation band, whereever it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Atleast the NAM got rid of the tight gradients and spread precip further north. Still mostly snow near phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Another mt holly update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 just going off the wrf for phl start time 4-6 worst part 8pm-2am exit 4-5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z NAM snowfall 8-12 makes it pretty far north well west of SE PA nudges midway north into York County but dives south to NE sections of Baltimore cuts over to Wilmington, DE, kisses PHL airport up to Maguire AFB before turning south ACY 4-8 is rule of thumb for entire region line runs well north of Harrisburg, to Hazleton to PA NE point border with NJ and NY, 8-12 doesn't start again til eastern sections of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hmm ... Mount Holly now thinking the heaviest snows are in NJ? NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-261015- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.110126T1500Z-110127T0900Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS- LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 331 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET OR RAIN MIXED IN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY IN NEW JERSEY. * TIMING: SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES COULD AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS: THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE AFFECTED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT AS THE EVENING COMMUTE PROGRESSES. THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL CLEANUP OF WEDNESDAYS SNOWFALL. * CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 6 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IS A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN STORM EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE FROM ALLENTOWN TO TRENTON FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER EVENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Absolutely. Thundersnow is definitely on the table with the level of dynamics we're talking about. That's some of what's depicted as falling in the upper right image. If you look on the NCEP site at the H7 (700mb) level: look at the tightly packed red lines under the closed contour of the H7 low (over NE MD, NJ, SE PA)--that is omega, which is defined as "A term used to describe vertical motion in the atmosphere. The "omega equation" used in numerical weather models is composed of two terms, the "differential vorticity advection" term and the "thickness advection" term. Put more simply, omega is determined by the amount of spin (or large scale rotation) and warm (or cold) advection present in the atmosphere. On a weather forecast chart, high values of omega (or a strong omega field) relate to upward vertical motion (UVV) in the atmosphere. If this upward vertical motion is strong enough and in a sufficiently moist airmass, precipitation results." This means that the air in these "high omega" areas is rapidly rising, and that convective potential is there. With a bombing low and being in the CCB, I would definitely think that convection and thunder is definitely possible under this deformation band, whereever it sets up. Thanks, I always wondered what height level to look at.for some clue. I'm assuming the red numbers in the closed off low are pretty imprexxive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NW NJ....if you look at the Mt Holly forecast snow maps you will see there thinking...see above Hmm ... Mount Holly now thinking the heaviest snows are in NJ? NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-261015- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.110126T1500Z-110127T0900Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS- LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 331 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET OR RAIN MIXED IN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY IN NEW JERSEY. * TIMING: SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES COULD AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS: THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE AFFECTED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT AS THE EVENING COMMUTE PROGRESSES. THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL CLEANUP OF WEDNESDAYS SNOWFALL. * CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 6 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IS A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN STORM EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE FROM ALLENTOWN TO TRENTON FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER EVENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hmm ... Mount Holly now thinking the heaviest snows are in NJ? NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-261015- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.110126T1500Z-110127T0900Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS- LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 331 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET OR RAIN MIXED IN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY IN NEW JERSEY. * TIMING: SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES COULD AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS: THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE AFFECTED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT AS THE EVENING COMMUTE PROGRESSES. THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL CLEANUP OF WEDNESDAYS SNOWFALL. * CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 6 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IS A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN STORM EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE FROM ALLENTOWN TO TRENTON FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER EVENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Yep, they've decreased snow amounts North and West of the cities on the point and click forecasts. about an hour ago they had us at 4 - 8", now down to 3 - 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 In the PHL NW burbs of Chester, Montgomery and Bucks looks like a solid 6 to 10 per the MT Holly forecasts Yep, they've decreased snow amounts North and West of the cities on the point and click forecasts. about an hour ago they had us at 4 - 8", now down to 3 - 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yep, they've decreased snow amounts North and West of the cities on the point and click forecasts. about an hour ago they had us at 4 - 8", now down to 3 - 5". Berks is still 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NW NJ....if you look at the Mt Holly forecast snow maps you will see there thinking...see above That makes sense. I was focusing on south and central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 question wrt to end time: NAM has the storm ending a little after 06z, but precip out of here by 09z. NMM and ARW say not until around 09z or even a hair after. Which is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 heading to the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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