Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JB update riding the EURO and JMA, 6-12 in big cities rain over to thump snow 6" amounts back to Beckley, to Johnstown, PA to Binghampton to Eastport, ME highest amounts up to 18" just west of big cities starting in western burbs of PHL into southern NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT is also still hyping up feb 2/3 on his FB...........tombo.....did the euro show anything in that time frame.....just curious?? yea it had a cutter going through western pa at hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT is also still hyping up feb 2/3 on his FB...........tombo.....did the euro show anything in that time frame.....just curious?? Great Lakes Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tombo... your outstanding Euro pbp's are drawing members from the New England thread here! I've asked in the New England thread with no answer... could you give a 12Z EURO qpf breakdown for some cities in SNE: KBED KBOS KORH KCHH KTAN KPYM KEWB Many will appreciate this! Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 saw this posted in the new england thread. Those who subscribe to jb can confirm if its tru or not jb says 6-12 dc to nyc, with up to 18 inches west of phl. That would be amazing! What is "JB"s website?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 please take the medium range threats to that thread...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tombo... your outstanding Euro pbp's are drawing members from the New England thread here! I've asked in the New England thread with no answer... could you give a 12Z EURO qpf breakdown for some cities in SNE: KBED KBOS KORH KCHH KTAN KPYM KEWB Many will appreciate this! Thanks!! they are in this ball park bed .8-1 bos 1.1-1.2 orh 1- 1.1 chh 1.2-1.3 tan 1.2-1.3 pym 1.2-1.3 ewb 1.35-1.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That would be amazing! What is "JB"s website?. you have to pay for it on accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 they are in this ball park bed .8-1 bos 1.1-1.2 orh 1- 1.1 chh 1.2-1.3 tan 1.2-1.3 pym 1.2-1.3 ewb 1.35-1.45 You rock. I'll quote this in the New England thread if you don't mind. As I said, the popularity of your euro pbp's is spilling out of the regional categories. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based on the latest data I'll nervously up my forecast a tad to 4-8" for TTN. EC still has mixing concerns and that cut-off on the NAM and MM5 looks deadly... and I'm wondering if the models are quite done shifting around (i.e., maybe they could still shift east a bit). Hence why I'm barely increasing the low end of my range... but the upper end needs to make room in case everything works out perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based on the latest data I'll nervously up my forecast a tad to 4-8" for TTN. EC still has mixing concerns and that cut-off on the NAM and MM5 looks deadly... and I'm wondering if the models are quite done shifting around (i.e., maybe they could still shift east a bit). Hence why I'm barely increasing the low end of my range... but the upper end needs to make room in case everything works out perfectly. Ray have you looked at the radar and WV, this storm is juiced up more from the GOM then any storm so far this season? I am willing to go out on the limb and say your parents get more then I do. I use to work on Lower Ferry rd and there would be no snow in TTN but when I would get to Ewing there would always be snow in this type of situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ARW and NMM clown maps (in the NYC thread) REALLY emphasize the sharp cut-off, but pretty much bury I-95 from DCA-NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yeah I meant to post that in this thread WRF NMM Clown WRF ARW clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Questions for someone more knowledgeable than I: Could the clipper that just went through strengthen enough to create a block and prolong tomorrow/Thursday storm? What went thru was really just a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Those mesoscale models really cut that precip off compared to their 00Z runs. Hoping it is more of a typical mesoscale model case of pulling the heavy precip together at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres the 12z jma accum precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll just remind everyone what Tony "Rainshadow" said about the NAM this winter: NAM QPF has generally been 1.5 times reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njrealtor84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ah, thank you. Wasnt sure. Appreciate you taking the time to reply to that post, lol. What went thru was really just a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll just remind everyone what Tony "Rainshadow" said about the NAM this winter: NAM QPF has generally been 1.5 times reality. What about the euro? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll just remind everyone what Tony "Rainshadow" said about the NAM this winter: NAM QPF has generally been 1.5 times reality. Yea but this time the nam isn't the only model advertising some awesome qpf numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll just remind everyone what Tony "Rainshadow" said about the NAM this winter: NAM QPF has generally been 1.5 times reality. shockingly though, the nam hasn;t been the wet one. Its been the euro. Not once has the nam pulled 1.75 out yet like the euro did for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll just remind everyone what Tony "Rainshadow" said about the NAM this winter: NAM QPF has generally been 1.5 times reality. 1.5*0=? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll just remind everyone what Tony "Rainshadow" said about the NAM this winter: NAM QPF has generally been 1.5 times reality. does the old rule of "take the average of the nam and gfs" still apply? in this case, that would give mby .8" ....which is extremely close to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The ARW and NMM clowns are accum through 0Z Thursday just when the snowfall is starting to rip in the CONUS. So essentially it's only showing the light stuff before the heavy stuff. If we can get ARW and NMM clowns through 12Z Thursday, we'll see whether to send the clowns in (or out). they are valid 12z Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What about the euro? :-) EC is much further NW than the NAM and GFS, so half of what it delivers isn't snow. Its snow QPF is similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 shockingly though, the nam hasn;t been the wet one. Its been the euro. Not once has the nam pulled 1.75 out yet like the euro did for several runs. The NAM IS the wet one during the snow portion, though. EC numbers are close to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM IS the wet one during the snow portion, though. EC numbers are close to the GFS. yea i wasn't even looking at snow really i was just saying i haven;t seen the nam throw 1.5-2 inch qpf like the euro has. Like you said that could be cause the euro is further north and i believe stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ARW and NMM 12Z clowns go to post #340 by Midlo the ones he posted are 10:1, I posted the ones with ratios because they will be lower, the 10:1 maps usually are way over done on the WRF but here their unrealistic selves are for the area NMM ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the ones he posted are 10:1, I posted the ones with ratios because they will be lower, the 10:1 maps usually are way over done on the WRF but here their unrealistic selves are for the area I withdrawn any criticism and actually deleted my posts since the images displayed in your original posts were updated (after I incorrectly posted regarding the times over which they were valid). BTW, thanks for all the terrific info you've posted in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 New SREF coming in a little wetter. Temps look similar - 850s to about phl. Extreme SE PA now 0.75 to 1.00 was 0.5 to 0.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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