tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 HGR and MDT please? hgr 1 mdt .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hgr 1 mdt .5-.75 Thanks Tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tombo...it sounded like .1-.25 of that fell as either rain or sleet in PHL/ILG...depending on surface temps I guess. Is that correct? Does the Euro have surface maps? I know I always hear it has a warmish bias so I am waving the weenie here hoping that that is true. Pretty much every other model looks like it is close to not even raining at all in ILG. the 2m temps for the euro never get below frz during the event. Like ppl have said euro may run a slight warm bias...also i have noticed from the sv maps is that they over compensate for the ocean effects... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Per Tom's PBP not all of that is snow in PHL area. Euro is a little warmer than other models. yea its like .6-.8 all snow in phl of that 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 north of a line per 850s of nyc to dyl to ptw to quarryville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z EURO qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Noreaster why is there that weird grouping to the QPF with one band to the north and one band to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That extra QPF the EURO has isnt really on the NAM/GFS persay, that is the QPF before the crazy uvvs from the ULL pass by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I've got a question..........always wondered this but never really asked. How do you know what time the storm will hit from the models? It always seems as if the storm arrives alot quicker than the models show. I'm in reading PA and the 12z gfs shows us getting precip around hr 33 or so...... based on radar, I'd think it would start earlier than that. Just wondering the best way to figure out when the event will start (roughly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Noreaster why is there that weird grouping to the QPF with one band to the north and one band to the south? alex, it looks like the deform band like jumps nyc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 still a nice hit per euro. thunder snow could add a nice addition to totals. tons of moisture to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW... Amazing precip gradient as per 12Z MM5 - Almost all frozen after hour 36 (7 PM EST Thursday) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 alex, it looks like the deform band like jumps nyc area. seems to start out farther SW...then slide out more NE than NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That extra QPF the EURO has isnt really on the NAM/GFS persay, that is the QPF before the crazy uvvs from the ULL pass by yea, the euro is a little more robust with the first wave....at this pt look at the euro at 0z but way the mesos 0z runs just as much as the euro maybe slightly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW... Amazing precip gradient as per 12Z MM5 - Almost all frozen after hour 36 (7 PM EST Thursday) - mm5 is great for 24hrs and in, once outside of that its eeee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z EURO qpf I hope you don't mind if I post this in the C PA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The moisture plume in the gulf is simply unbelievable on the radar and water vapor! Unbelievable, this will be a juicy juicy thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 id say 6 inches is probably the upper end of what the euro is putting out, for about half the storm the 850's are above freezing, and ratios will suck even when it flips if i were forecasting for philly based solely on the euro, id probably go 4-6 inches. It looks like the euro has 6 inches plus for Philly and a little more for the burbs and that looks like the low end of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This may be off-topic, and if so, I apologize, but is there a site that shows, on one graph, projected tracks from the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 still a nice hit per euro. thunder snow could add a nice addition to totals. tons of moisture to work with... *pic snipped* I know it's probably an illusion with that radar composite, but doesn't that look almost cutterish? ..and LOOK OUT FLORIDA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 agreed, that is why i said solely based on the euro. also i think a fair amount of mets think the euro is the way to go vis-a-vis this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 alex, it looks like the deform band like jumps nyc area. It reminds me of some past storms that did that.... one was Vet Day 1997, another was April 1996 and one more April 1997. Most of these seem to have occurred at the beginning or end of the season; it would be interesting to see what something like that happening in late Jan would be like. Regardless, I really like the fact that most of the area is getting .75 and above, and hopefully the euro's warm bias is showing at the surface; perhaps we can all have at least 75% snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 id say 6 inches is probably the upper end of what the euro is putting out, for about half the storm the 850's are above freezing, and ratios will suck even when it flips if i were forecasting for philly based solely on the euro, id probably go 4-6 inches. At least that for the city more for the cooler burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This may be off-topic, and if so, I apologize, but is there a site that shows, on one graph, projected tracks from the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF? Thanks. No Euro, but the rest are here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 agreed, that is why i said solely based on the euro. also i think a fair amount of mets think the euro is the way to go vis-a-vis this storm. They also seem to think the euro has a warm bias at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 honestly at 0z i would start weighing the meso models about as much or even moreso than the euro at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 dt doesn;t have the northeast last call map, but heres the one for the mid atl that shows part of the region. Not sure if this was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT had this storm for awhile; I remember back a few days ago he was calling for 6-12 inches here and he might end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 mm5 is great for 24hrs and in, once outside of that its eeee. No doubt. I am highly dubious of the precip gradient it shows, especially at 48 hours. I find the colder solution to possibly have a bit more legs given that is only 36 out. Seems early for that much cold, I know 850's are starting to creep offshore at that time, but would expect the surface might need longer to cool. Any other model support for a complete changeover that early? Cooling effects from the snow fall rates? Will certainly be watching it closely, especially the 12z run tomorrow when it is in it's range, particularly considering the relative accuracy of the mesocale models for banding events like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 saw this posted in the new england thread. Those who subscribe to jb can confirm if its tru or not jb says 6-12 dc to nyc, with up to 18 inches west of phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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