easternsnowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Update MH map Based on the latest models I would say Philly and especially slightly west of there would do a bit better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ARW and MM5 coming in with some very tight precip gradients. Looks like PHL is mostly snow too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based on the latest models I would say Philly and especially slightly west of there would do a bit better than that. Don't forget they got burned a little with the rain snow line during the last snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How often do the back end snows work out in this area? Trust me, if that storm moves west of the 12Z GFS guidance, PHL is way more rain than snow, and any snow that falls will have a massively difficult time accumulating. That will cause more ice than anything else, and that wouldn't be very enjoyable. In most cases it doesn't work out. But this is a special case. Will start out close to freezing in column and then will get a period heavy qpf with strong upward motion with cold air moving in aloft. Note how 500 mb center lags well behind the surface low. That will trigger the heavy snow when it passes south of area. All models show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM zoomed in with inches instead of mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM looks like a big snow a little to the west of Philly especially those with elevation. Philly does ok too. Yeah looks like mainly snow from phl on NW roughly 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still looks like mainly like a miss here in Hazleton. Maybe 2-4" which would bring seasonal total to approx 24", well below normal. I've given up, on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z FIM comes well NW of 00z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njrealtor84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Questions for someone more knowledgeable than I: Could the clipper that just went through strengthen enough to create a block and prolong tomorrow/Thursday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 alright guys the 12z euro just init, lets see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres the 12z ukmet at the hgt of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just watched JB video also.. as mentioned he likes the euro track. gfs and nam for far east but still nice hit for phl once is changes over. lets see what tom reports on 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 18 has a sub 1008 in low in sw ga ....frz line and 850s are dc to sea isle city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 24 has a sub 1008 low centered over northeast sc.... h5 is closed off over central tn...lgt precip has made it up to i80...850s are dc to del canal to toms river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 UKMET is a big hit very similar to GGEM - looks like 12+. All we need is the Euro for a clean sweep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 UKMET is a big hit very similar to GGEM - looks like 12+. All we need is the Euro for a clean sweep. any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 30 has a sub 1000 low about 50 miles east of southern delmarva tip 850s are from edison nj to dyl to york.... .1-.25 qpf has fallen from i76 south... north of that its .01.-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 any maps? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 36 has a sub 992 low about 50-75 miles east of lewes, h5 is closed off at 540 hgt line over orf... 850s are from nyc to phl to east of ric... .25-.5 qpf from phl to ukt northeast.. .1-.25 everyone else.. 2nd area of hvy precip building over dc and wpa and wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 36 has a sub 992 low about 50-75 miles east of lewes, h5 is closed off at 540 hgt line over orf... 850s are from nyc to phl to east of ric... .25-.5 qpf from phl to ukt northeast.. .1-.25 everyone else.. 2nd area of hvy precip building over dc and wpa and wv Sounds like more precip and slightly warmer temps from first part of storm compared to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 42 sub 988 about 125 miles east of sand hook nj .1-.25 wellsboro to morgantown wv .25-.5 port jervis to lewistown to martinsburg .5-.75 pne to phl to del canal through rest of del...then ac expressway south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 36 has a sub 992 low about 50-75 miles east of lewes, h5 is closed off at 540 hgt line over orf... 850s are from nyc to phl to east of ric... .25-.5 qpf from phl to ukt northeast.. .1-.25 everyone else.. 2nd area of hvy precip building over dc and wpa and wv sounds like jb's thoughts. 2nd area should be the dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wxsim program forecast with 12z GFS/NAM - total snowfall 11" to 13" Timing etc IP and Snow by 2pm temp 31.8 Moderate snow from 3pm to 730pm - Temp 28.3 (snow so far 5.0") Heavy Snow starting about 830pm continuing thru around midnight ( 11.0" new inches on ground at that time) Snow ends by 3am - total new snow accumulation 11 to 13" with around 18" on the ground by Thursday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 48 sub 984 about 75-100 miles or so east of cc .1-.25 easton pa to northeast md down the del/md line .25-.5 nyc to just east of ttn to miv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wxsim program forecast with 12z GFS/NAM - total snowfall 11" to 13" Timing etc IP and Snow by 2pm temp 31.8 Moderate snow from 3pm to 730pm - Temp 28.3 (snow so far 5.0") Heavy Snow starting about 830pm continuing thru around midnight ( 11.0" new inches on ground at that time) Snow ends by 3am - total new snow accumulation 11 to 13" with around 18" on the ground by Thursday AM thanks again for posting. i was wondering what the output would be from Wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 54 its out of here qpf phl 1.25 ttn 1.15 balt .8-.9 abe .75-1 hazleton .6 avp .25-.5 fwn .75-1 dov 1.25-1.5 acy 1.25-1.5 lns .75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 from the euro going off 850 phl is about .6-.8 frozen for the event of there 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 further north? NYC/HPN/JFK/ISP thanks! nyc 1 hpn .75-1 jfk 1 isp 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 54 its out of here qpf phl 1.25 ttn 1.15 balt .8-.9 abe .75-1 hazleton .6 avp .25-.5 fwn .75-1 dov 1.25-1.5 acy 1.25-1.5 lns .75-1 Per Tom's PBP not all of that is snow in PHL area. Euro is a little warmer than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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