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PHL CWA JAN 26/27 OBS and Discussion Thread


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Little confused. (Maybe a lot) - All the discussion over the past days about where the low was going in regard to the coast. East of hatteras, west of Hatteras, off the Delmarva. etc. Was any of that valid or is this and the precip in WV, VA, Kentucky just outside what the models showed?

Seems to me what was supposed to be regardless of which model didn't really happen OR is this in line with one or more of the models and the low is really on the coast? OR is another low to form on the coast yet today? Looks like last nights low off SC is long gone.

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Since Mt. Holly updated their snow totals, bringing higher totals to places in the Lehigh Valley, will they be extending the WS Warnings too?

Tough call. I noticed the same thing - they raised the totals after they downgraded to the WWA. Depends on what the lesser of two evils is between flip-flopping and busting low. I'm going to venture that a call is made with the afternoon package based on things like radar trends and the hi-res models. I don't think this morning's show gets us into warning criteria snow, and there's still a fair chance Lehigh/Northampton gets left high and dry on the wrong side of the gradient with the coastal.

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Unbelievable indescribable awesomeness of snow falling out of the sky in downtown Wilmington right now. Golf ball sized snowflakes. Best snow I have EVER seen in my life.

I can imagine. You don't usually see a radar return like that associated with snow; looks more like a thunderstorm.

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I wish SPC had taken a couple extra soundings across NJ at 12z. Vertical temp profiles are just as important to winter weather as to severe, why couldn't they throw a balloon up there?

Its a nice idea, but they can't really do that. Releasing and tracking upper air balloons from the ground is done by WFO's and contract offices (not SPC) from stationary stations with a lot of high tech stationary ground equipment. They did send a plane into the Atlantic and released dropsondes... but those are really only an option over the ocean, I believe.

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Since Mt. Holly updated their snow totals, bringing higher totals to places in the Lehigh Valley, will they be extending the WS Warnings too?

The adjustments is probably for what is now happening and to end on the sooner side SW. So unless they think the evening batch will do the same for your area I would think they will not.

But then what do I know. Did not see this coming this morning. Off course in NW NJ just have a heavy coating so far. ugh

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Tough call. I noticed the same thing - they raised the totals after they downgraded to the WWA. Depends on what the lesser of two evils is between flip-flopping and busting low. I'm going to venture that a call is made with the afternoon package based on things like radar trends and the hi-res models. I don't think this morning's show gets us into warning criteria snow, and there's still a fair chance Lehigh/Northampton gets left high and dry on the wrong side of the gradient with the coastal.

Then why put in the the additional totals? They should have just waited for the afternoon runs to do the whole thing. I think they will upgrade at 11:00-11:30. I receive 3" this morning.

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