famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 base radar goes from 0 to 40 dbz in like 10 miles. so i'm thinking flurries to rain. Maybe. There's been some decent returns near BWI which have been mostly snow so you could get a quick burst of snow. Annapolis switched to something other than snow, probably sleet... SPECI KNAK 260936Z AUTO 03006KT 2 1/2SM UP BR SCT028 BKN034 OVC060 00/M02 A2998 RMK AO2 UPB15SNE15 P0001 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 At 0Z, all is right with the world according to the 6Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottium Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Flurries in Parkesburg PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 @ 15Z it has the column at or below freezing down to the surface, but it's exactly at 0C @ 800mb (that's extrapolated from 40N, 75W). The GFS is actually moving colder air in at the 900mb-surface layer as early as this AM. Then at 18Z, it gives you: Yuk. By 21Z it still has the warm nose at 750-800 mb (0.7C)--that looks like IP to ZR to me. hr 15 the main slug of precip is still west. It seems like as that moves in the warm air erodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 6Z GFS definitely looks warmer at TTN at 18Z. Before it was right at freezing at warmest, now its definitely above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 per gfs 1 inch of qpf... through 9hrs the first .1 is snow it looks like...then hr 12 and hr 15 its ice or rain about another .1 or .15 there. First part it has .25 qpf through 18...then the back event comes in with another .7 qpf as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks, I think. Most definitely in a positive way . 06z Gfs gradient pretty tight, much like every other model. Really not liking how tight the precip gradients have been this winter. Puts me on nerves and I go through a whole tin of altoids when nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 from my friend, snowing in mullica hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 per gfs 1 inch of qpf... through 9hrs the first .1 is snow it looks like...then hr 12 and hr 15 its ice or rain about another .1 or .15 there. First part it has .25 qpf through 18...then the back event comes in with another .7 qpf as snow Another nudge SE in most places... 0Z 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its snowing pretty good right now in northern delaware...parking lots snow covered per del dot cams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Another nudge SE in most places... at this pt, it could nudge it to 1-3 for me and i would be happy. I was expecting a torrent of rain with this storm, now its snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wcu eoc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Reporting the first flakes at West Chester University...so many that I could have counted them if I wanted, but flakes nonetheless. Should be a fun day tommorrow with 16,000 on campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 MIV reporting light snow... 2 1/2 miles so my guess is its actually sleet, but frozen for the time being nonetheless. METAR KMIV 260954Z AUTO 05009KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN014 OVC030 01/M01 A2999 RMK AO2 UPB09E14RAB14E35SNB35 SLP154 P0002 T00061006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow beginning to accumulate here north of Delaware, a nice coating on most surfaces right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No TAF amendments here... KEKO 260526Z 2606/2706 VRB03KT P6SM SCT200 Wow, you must have been working overtime on that TAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 from my friend, snowing in mullica hill. Add me to the list. Snowing very lightly here in Wenonah, Gloucester County, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Latest update Just took the puppy out and just about busted my arse! about 1/8" ice on everything and sleet falling fast and furious! 35/34 crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 snowing here, had to run out and set up the snowboard...snow is sticking on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wcu eoc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very heavy burst of snow here at West Chester University. Impressive stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mixing with rain finally at BWI... SPECI KBWI 261012Z 05007KT 1 1/2SM -SNRA BR OVC004 00/M01 A2997 RMK AO2 RAB06 P0000 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 snowing here, had to run out and set up the snowboard...snow is sticking on contact. The radar returns in S NJ look to mean business, and could affect NYC metro in a few hours. I don't think models anticipated the extent of the overrunning precipitation and its ability to advance northward. This could be a surprise for some during the morning commute. Is anyone else a bit pleased with the radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, you must have been working overtime on that TAF. I'm not working aviation so I can't take credit for all that work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The radar returns in S NJ look to mean business, and could affect NYC metro in a few hours. I don't think models anticipated the extent of the overrunning precipitation and its ability to advance northward. This could be a surprise for some during the morning commute. Is anyone else a bit pleased with the radar? Its not as heavy as it looks, temps aloft are above freezing so the radar is "bright banding" because the snowflakes are trying to melt on the way down. But it is snow in the lower Del Valley... the question of course is just how far N does this get. Latest GFS shows most of it heading SE of NYC with less than a 0.1" liquid for most of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Radar echos LOOK GOOD over Schuylkill County, but looks can be so deceiving. It's all virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm not working aviation so I can't take credit for all that work Well, that just shot down my earlier comment then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow just started at PHL... SPECI KPHL 261013Z 05006KT 6SM -SN BKN028 OVC040 01/M04 A3003 RMK AO2 SNB13 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Amazing how different the RUC and GFS thermal profiles are for the next 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its not as heavy as it looks, temps aloft are above freezing so the radar is "bright banding" because the snowflakes are trying to melt on the way down. But it is snow in the lower Del Valley... the question of course is just how far N does this get. Latest GFS shows most of it heading SE of NYC with less than a 0.1" liquid for most of the metro. The band between Lancaster and PHL might have a decent shot at making the trip up here, and I am impressed with the backbuilding signature over the Atlantic, especially south of LI, where the echoes are rapidly filling in. Overall, the first part of this storm may be a pleasant surprise to those following it, and a headache for those who have to commute during it. I'm supposed to be subbing at a local school at 11:30 so we'll see what the weather does around here and if they decide to call things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 everything is coated here now, snowing decently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 light snow just started NE. PHILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.