tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So you're saying you're better than Gorse & Company? nope, thats my forecast from the map i had out for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 New PHI snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So you're saying you're better than Gorse & Company? When I read a better AFD by Tombo than Gorse he can gladly have that title I remember reading a few last winter and I was like "Who the hell is this guy and why is he making these AFD's enjoyable.... why is this... actually... enjoyable?? " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My thoughts for the storm and (very) amateur forecast (for the PHL area only): A very difficult storm to forecast--I don't envy Mike, Tony, Walt, or anybody at Mt. Holly one bit. I think the morning will find some snow, sleet, and rain mixed down to the city with little or no accumulation except possibly some slush on the usual areas. Accumulating snow could start far north and west of the city by mid morning and continue in earnest throughout the day, occasionally mixing with sleet and rain. As the H5 low closes off and begins to bomb the surface low, cold air will rush in behind the storm, allowing for a changeover to all snow for the entire area. Changeover times: Those northern/western Suburbs of PHL that don't stay mostly snow will change over by 3-4pm. As you get closer to the city, I'd expect a changeover to snow by 5-6pm, with interior southern New Jersey changing by 6-7pm and even out to the coast before 9pm. As the precip changes over and the low intensifies, a significant banding feature will become apparent, under which snowfall rates of up to 2"/hr will verify, and thunder may be heard during the nighttime hours. It's my belief, looking at guidance, that this band will be setting up 25 miles either side of a line running from southern New Castle County, DE---Elizabeth, NJ line. So if you live in an area bordered by Hammonton, NJ, Freehold, NJ, back through Morristown, NJ, Flemington, NJ, through just to the north and west of Philadelphia, Norristown, PA, Media, PA, and WIlmington, DE, I think you will see this intense banding starting around 8-9pm tonight, and this will provide the area in which it sets up snowfall rates of nearly 2" per hour for a 3-5 hour span. Again, thunder is well possible as dynamics are ripe and the atmosphere is unstable. The snow will taper off to light snow and flurries, ending from SW to NE in the overnight hours, and should be gone except for some flurries by daybreak Thursday. Accumulations--yes I know the map sucks, but it's 4am and I suck at Paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 When I read a better AFD by Tombo than Gorse he can gladly have that title I remember reading a few last winter and I was like "Who the hell is this guy and why is he making these AFD's enjoyable and interesting for once.. " I doubt I could top a Gorse AFD so the chances that Tombo could are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 New PHI snow map they didn't put in a total for mercer county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I doubt I could top a Gorse AFD so the chances that Tombo could are... prob 100%...snowing lancaster now per the pen dot cameras out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On the national radar you can see how the precip is falling apart between part one around the DelMarVa and part two back in TN and KY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dialed into MIV and its raining there... 856-327-3455 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lees reporting thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just rain and sleet at DCA now... SPECI KDCA 260919Z 03007KT 3SM -RAPL BR SCT008 BKN020 OVC028 01/M01 A3000 RMK AO2 RAB02SNE08 P0002 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 composite vs. base reflectivity... which one lies the least? i'm thinking base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lees reporting thundersnow With 6"/hour banding, and 3 transformers just exploded. We like Lee, and it's BECAUSE we like him that we pick on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 composite vs. base reflectivity... which one lies the least? i'm thinking base correct base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 composite vs. base reflectivity... which one lies the least? i'm thinking base Base reflectivity gives you reflectivity at a particular tilt of the radar. Composite gives you all tilts of the radar mashed together, so it may indicate precip aloft at a higher tilt that isn't reaching ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Base reflectivity gives you reflectivity at a particular tilt of the radar. Composite gives you all tilts of the radar mashed together, so it may indicate precip aloft at a higher tilt that isn't reaching ground. Base is the lowest tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 When I read a better AFD by Tombo than Gorse he can gladly have that title I remember reading a few last winter and I was like "Who the hell is this guy and why is he making these AFD's enjoyable.... why is this... actually... enjoyable?? " Thanks, I think. I doubt I could top a Gorse AFD so the chances that Tombo could are... Come on, you know you want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 correct base. mosaic vs. site? i'm thinking site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Come on, you know you want to. Of course I want to. Then again there's a lot of things I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Base is the lowest tilt. Educate me, Ray. My GRLevel 3 offers base reflectivity at the 0.5*, 1.5*, 2.5*, and 3.5* tilt. I thought the base was that tilt alone, while composite was all 4 (or for level 2 data, all 14). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 mosaic vs. site? i'm thinking site Mosaic would probably splice all nearby radars together. Site is just one radar. Which one you want depends on distance from the radar site. Harrisburg people would likely want mosaic. Mt. Laurel people likely want site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Educate me, Ray. My GRLevel 3 offers base reflectivity at the 0.5*, 1.5*, 2.5*, and 3.5* tilt. I thought the base was that tilt alone, while composite was all 4 (or for level 2 data, all 14). The real base is 0.5. Lowest tilt. Hence the name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The real base is 0.5. Lowest tilt. Hence the name Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i cant see full sounding, but levels surf, 925 and 850 are fine for this morn and the gfs has .1-.25 this morn so far through 9hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mosaic would probably splice all nearby radars together. Site is just one radar. Which one you want depends on distance from the radar site. Harrisburg people would likely want mosaic. Mt. Laurel people likely want site. I'm going to stick with the one that shows no precipitation, because that's exactly what I've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Of course I want to. Then again there's a lot of things I want Anyway, some TAF amendments already issued. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm going to stick with the one that shows no precipitation, because that's exactly what I've got. Yeah, mosaic would show you virga overhead, probably via DOX. Site would just show the lower returns from DIX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyway, some TAF amendments already issued. Here we go! No TAF amendments here... KEKO 260526Z 2606/2706 VRB03KT P6SM SCT200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah, mosaic would show you virga overhead, probably via DOX. Site would just show the lower returns from DIX. base radar goes from 0 to 40 dbz in like 10 miles. so i'm thinking flurries to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i cant see full sounding, but levels surf, 925 and 850 are fine for this morn and the gfs has .1-.25 this morn so far through 9hrs. @ 15Z it has the column at or below freezing down to the surface, but it's exactly at 0C @ 800mb (that's extrapolated from 40N, 75W). The GFS is actually moving colder air in at the 900mb-surface layer as early as this AM. Then at 18Z, it gives you: Yuk. By 21Z it still has the warm nose at 750-800 mb (0.7C)--that looks like IP to ZR to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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