iceman56 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Odd that Chester County isn't included in the winter storm watch. Counties to the south in MD are in and Berks, Montgomery and Bucks to the north are in. Maybe later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12Z GFS is running, out to 6hrs on NCEP. NAM seems to be initializing vorticity a bit stronger, GFS seems to be digging a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS H5 closed off 27 hrs. open again at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Odd that Chester County isn't included in the winter storm watch. Counties to the south in MD are in and Berks, Montgomery and Bucks to the north are in. Maybe later... I'd imagine anyone south of I-78 will be by midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 36 dc area getting crushed... hr 39 md-phl getting crushed...mod snow north of there for 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS is back to its 0z run through 42 (basically the whole storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS H5 closed off 27 hrs. open again at 30 check out the dc/psuhoffman thread.........they are excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 42 Surprised the heavy qpf from 36 doesn't translate north. hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 42 Surprised the heavy qpf from 36 doesn't translate north. hmmm If the H7 charts are to be believed it should have. I think? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 the 36 to 42 is odd for the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The best Omega slides from Maryland into SE PA then through central/south Jersey before heading out to sea between 36 and 42 hours. Its still snow north and west of there, but at 1/2" per hour or less in my opinion. Again, it looks like another thump storm. Needs to snow ALOT in a short time to get totals over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does seem to underproduce considering 36 hr map. Moves system out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the 36 to 42 is odd for the north It trended west, though, which is what the PHL area should want. Hopefully that continues today. Still have a day remaining before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Total precip through 48: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It definitely breathes a little more hope into those of us in ABE, Poconos, and Wilks Barre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It trended west, though, which is what the PHL area should want. Hopefully that continues today. Still have a day remaining before the storm. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A little strange in that is does not really nail the NYC area....we know that can't be right this year. It kind of reminds me of last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 either way still a nice hit for many... very very fast hit and run! sunny skies by thursday am for digging out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS brings the 0C line @ 850 into southern NJ where the NAM had it offshore the whole run. Hour 24: North of Baltimore, MD-->Wilmington, DE-->Salem County NJ-->Atlantic City, NJ Hour 30: North and West of BWI, DCA-->New Hope, PA-->North of New Brunswick, NJ-->south shore of Long Island, NY Hour 36: Crashing SE of BWI, DCA-->south of Wilmington, DE-->Vineland, NJ-->Belmar, NJ Hour 42: offshore. The majority of the QPF falls as snow, but beware...basically cuts NAM precip totals in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs snowfall map is 4-8 for snj and LV.....8-12 kissing phl-se pa-dc/baltimore area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The best Omega slides from Maryland into SE PA then through central/south Jersey before heading out to sea between 36 and 42 hours. Its still snow north and west of there, but at 1/2" per hour or less in my opinion. Again, it looks like another thump storm. Needs to snow ALOT in a short time to get totals over 6". System is not modeled as strong on GFS as NAM. gfs snowfall map is 4-8 for snj and LV.....8-12 kissing phl-se pa-dc/baltimore area SNJ takes mixing into account. Any further west and PHL could be in some serious trouble taking the GFS verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just when you think a solution is at hand, the proverbial monkey wrench is thrown into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs snowfall map is 4-8 for snj and LV.....8-12 kissing phl-se pa-dc/baltimore area Can you post the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can you post the map? nah sorry ray...its a paid map...ur def in the 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nah sorry ray...its a paid map...ur def in the 4-8 hey, hows abe looking? im at work on the ipad? thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hey, hows abe looking? im at work on the ipad? thanks man! 4-8 for abe on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What is the European CONTROL model? JB used it in his video today to show the track and why the storm will be further west than most guidance is showing FWIW he is up snow amounts from DC to NYC to 6-12, but heaviest axis will still be west of I-95 though he hasn't outlined that axis yet there he did say amounts up to 15" he said he is not upping the snow amounts in the big cities based on track but on precipitation rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Have faith a day and a half ago this was a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much for me posts belong in the banter thread, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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