famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ray, how would u rank the model in terms of performance with this? mine would be gfs euro ukmet nam ggem u I go in last place? that's mean.. and since when am I a model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I go in last place? that's mean.. and since when am I a model? lol i meant like you, like whats yours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SREF snowfall (just came across these products good stuff from the spc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Depends on how much precip gets up there during the morning and midday. If its very little like the NAM has, then there's a good shot at all snow. You can see on the national radar composite the warm dry slot aimed right for NJ... those areas typically have a non-snow p-type. Hi Ray, could you please elaborate what you mean by warm dry slot aimed for NJ I'm a complete novice here. I was under the impression that NJ was going to do fairly well for snowfall totals looking at the maps and model readings. Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol i meant like you, like whats yours lol Over the past few days I also think the GFS has been superior. GGEM worst. I haven't been following the UKMET too closely. Of course, its hard to truly evaluate their performance before the event has taken place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like HPC is NOT going with that low to the NE Updated 24 hr map just issued Tucked in nice and west there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Depends on how much precip gets up there during the morning and midday. If its very little like the NAM has, then there's a good shot at all snow. You can see on the national radar composite the warm dry slot aimed right for NJ... those areas typically have a non-snow p-type. excellent note. thanks... i think. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hi Ray, could you please elaborate what you mean by warm dry slot aimed for NJ I'm a complete novice here. I was under the impression that NJ was going to do fairly well for snowfall totals looking at the maps and model readings. Thanks, I was referring to the early portion of the storm (before about 21Z or so). On the attached national radar composite, you can see the large dry area advecting northward in the Carolinas, and the scattered light to moderate precip ahead of it. That's what I was referring to. I think there is a high risk of mixing with the lead precip, assuming it makes it into the area as the GFS depicts and doesn't dry up like the NAM shows. Edit: might help if I attach the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 who hacked into the mm5? Its been stalled at hr 12 for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 who hacked into the mm5? Its been stalled at hr 12 for hours Maybe it's forecasting the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's warmed up to a toasty (almost) 34F here. But the dewpoint has dropped about 2 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I was referring to the early portion of the storm (before about 21Z or so). On the attached national radar composite, you can see the large dry area advecting northward in the Carolinas, and the scattered light to moderate precip ahead of it. That's what I was referring to. I think there is a high risk of mixing with the lead precip, assuming it makes it into the area as the GFS depicts and doesn't dry up like the NAM shows. Edit: might help if I attach the image Thanks Ray that helped explain it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 that blob of precip is still holding together very well. Only layer right now thats hurting for phl is 900-975 mb zone. Hopefully when the precip starts it can drag the colder air down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looking at the obs in the mid atl thread. nw side of dc is snow....... so that bodes well up here hopefully. edit: dc is reporting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looking at the obs in the mid atl thread. nw side of dc is snow....... so that bodes well up here hopefully. edit: dc is reporting snow Hmm, I see no such official reports... ADW is reporting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Interesting I think .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 jeez the ruc seriously is a horrible model. Those surface obs the guy posted with the low going inside hse are prob way off. The 6z ruc has dc with +3.2 925 temp and its snowing down there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hmm, I see no such official reports... ADW is reporting rain. they are reporting it down there...look at the ob thread down there. One met who is in la plata is reporting r/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 jeez the ruc seriously is a horrible model. Those surface obs the guy posted with the low going inside hse are prob way off. The 6z ruc has dc with +3.2 925 temp and its snowing down there now Not doing anything according to the official obs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 they are reporting it down there...look at the ob thread down there. One met who is in la plata is reporting r/s So you mean there are reports of snow around DC. To say DC is reporting snow implies that the official site DCA is reporting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not doing anything according to the official obs... from the one guy "DCA is reporting -SN @ SNB07 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 from the one guy "DCA is reporting -SN @ SNB07 " I can find no such official observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 DC is very small, smaller than Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can find no such official observation. lol well im just going off there reports down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 snowing in columbia, md 3 miles nw of i95, its moving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Andrews AFB34 °F Light Snow2:34 AM EST Fort Belvoir36 °F Light Snow2:21 AM EST Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 3z srefs bring 1 inch line into phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol well im just going off there reports down there. Ok NOW its snowing in DC... though very lightly (vis 5 miles is flurries). SPECI KDCA 260740Z 04007KT 5SM -SN BKN024 OVC065 02/M03 A3004 RMK AO2 SNB07 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Also *very light* snow at Andrews... 7 miles SPECI KADW 260734Z AUTO 06005KT 7SM -SN BKN023 OVC033 01/M03 A3002 RMK AO2 UPB0657E0659SNB0732RAB0659E0732 SLP169 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Also *very light* snow at Andrews... 7 miles SPECI KADW 260734Z AUTO 06005KT 7SM -SN BKN023 OVC033 01/M03 A3002 RMK AO2 UPB0657E0659SNB0732RAB0659E0732 SLP169 $ point is the ruc is a horrible model lol. I didn't expect it to snow in dc, so thats good up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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