tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 euro out to hr 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks Tom. Looks a little further offshore. Off to bed - radar echoes are making good progress to NE. Should be here by AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hr 12 has a sub 1004 low due south of hse by about 25-50 miles lgt precip over the area...850s dc to dov to acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hr 18 sub 1000 low 100-125 miles east of orf .1-.25 from phl and delco counties south...850s along 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hr 24 sub 992 low by the bm...another sub 996 low just off delmarva... 850s smyrna to camden to holmdel .1-.25 qpf from fwn to ipt south .25-.5 elkton to gettysburg to somerset south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hr 30 sub 988 about 75 miles east of the bm 850s off coast .1-.25 wayne co, pa to mdt to hgr .25-.5 york to ukt to nyc on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hr 36 some lgt precip from phl east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 qpf phl .75 nyc .75 balt 1 abe .3-.4 fwn .3-.35 avp .1-.2 hazleton .25-.3 mdt .5 ttn .75 rdg .5 acy 1-1.1 dov 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sounds like is shifted east a bit. Win for US models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ECM 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sounds like is shifted east a bit. Win for US models? its no win, the euro was the first to show a storm. While the gfs was doing inverted trofs and what not. In the end the american models won out in the last 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Does the double low feature make sense based on the upper air dynamics? If the double low doesn't materialize, wouldn't there be a case for a stronger single circulation center? Does my question even make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 heres the 0z ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM also shows the double low. Is probably one reason QPF is down for Euro. Despite predictions to the contrary this has been in an overall SE trend for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z EURO total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM also shows the double low. Is probably one reason QPF is down for Euro. The has been in an overall SE trend for several days. We've gone from rain to being on the NW side. Could be an all snow event. even if it showed 1-3 inches of snow, id take that anyday. Last thursday everyone though this was going to be 1-3 inches of rain. So lets not get spoiled here, this is still a 4-8 inch snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z EURO total QPF well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 even if it showed 1-3 inches of snow, id take that anyday. Last thursday everyone though this was going to be 1-3 inches of rain. So lets not get spoiled here, this is still a 4-8 inch snow event. Fully agreed, tombo. Thanks again for giving us your PBP. Enjoy your snow in the Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 look at the omega ripping in the snow growth region on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Now I'd be *really* worried if I was on the gradient... Second time the EC has caved big time to the GFS in the final hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still liking 4-8 for TTN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still liking 4-8 for TTN... yea ray your call looks good. Even though the qpf was alittle less, its colder, putting your area, going by 850s as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 low pressure coming on shore at Wilmington, NC, winds still ESE at Hatteras, track inside Hatteras looks good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm Curious aren't the other models still coming in wetter than the euro for philly into SJ? we may get 4-8 but still there is the possibilty of more than that. Still 4-8 is great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm Curious aren't the other models still coming in wetter than the euro for philly into SJ? we may get 4-8 but still there is the possibilty of more than that. Still 4-8 is great though. I think the primary concern for us down here is temps. Changeover around 7pm-ish? That still leaves us about 6 hours of good stuff probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still liking 4-8 for TTN... you think ttn will pull off an all snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 my guess is that if the trend of the models is correct tonight, there may be very little non-frozen precip in metro philly, and id expect any changeover to happen before 7pm I think the primary concern for us down here is temps. Changeover around 7pm-ish? That still leaves us about 6 hours of good stuff probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Now I'd be *really* worried if I was on the gradient... Second time the EC has caved big time to the GFS in the final hours... yea a little shocking to be honest. GFS has been on a roll this winter. Europ almost cut precip in half from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 you think ttn will pull off an all snow event? Depends on how much precip gets up there during the morning and midday. If its very little like the NAM has, then there's a good shot at all snow. You can see on the national radar composite the warm dry slot aimed right for NJ... those areas typically have a non-snow p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Depends on how much precip gets up there during the morning and midday. If its very little like the NAM has, then there's a good shot at all snow. You can see on the national radar composite the warm dry slot aimed right for NJ... those areas typically have a non-snow p-type. ray, how would u rank the model in terms of performance with this? mine would be gfs euro ukmet nam ggem u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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