Voyager Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd be worried if I was on the NW gradient... About what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 where is your NW gradient? Reading, Allentown to Sparta,NJ? Particularly those areas. I remember on Monday I forecast 3-6 and expected the heavier stuff to be NW of TTN. Now it looks like it'll be SE of TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Keep in mind from Mt Holly WE ALSO SUSPECTED THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD CAUSE SOMEMODELING PROBLEMS AND THE SFC LOW VERIFIED MUCH FARTHER NORTH (INALABAMA) THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD, CAN GGEM AND ECMWF VERIFYINGTHE BEST THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd be worried if I was on the NW gradient... Oh, we are. Pins and needles clinging to the Euro for a day+ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Keep in mind from Mt Holly WE ALSO SUSPECTED THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD CAUSE SOMEMODELING PROBLEMS AND THE SFC LOW VERIFIED MUCH FARTHER NORTH (INALABAMA) THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD, CAN GGEM AND ECMWF VERIFYINGTHE BEST THERE. The coastal popped up about where the NAM and GFS have it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 About what? theres nothing to worry about 3-6" is still a great storm after rain was the forecast this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Rays just being a negative nancy because he won't be here for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 go figure, on the gfs clown map the 10-12" band almost perfect straddles I-95 and doesn't go north or west of it, but instead south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hurricane just predicted a general 5-8 inches for the Philly area and 8-12 for Trenton and point north and east.............fyi Depends on the ratios. I'm going to say that's probably a low estimate for Phi-town. Going to be bold and go for 7-10". Ratios will be closer to 12-15:1 Wed around midnight when convection may result in a brief thundersnow event. Ratios will be 8:1 at onset mixed with sleet and maybe an hour or two in the afternoon of light drizzle. By the evening rush, we'll be changed back over to snow @ 10:1 and the ratios will increase by the hour. Heavy wet slush snow topped with the fluffy stuff. My Forecast Breakdown: For Wednesday into Thursday for Philadelphia Metro: 1-2" of slush/ice/sleet accumulations prior to noon. Sleet (70% prob) vs rain (30% prob) transitioning to all snow late afternoon, minimal accumulations. Change to all snow occurs NLT 6 PM. Snow ratio 8:1 through 9 PM. Snow ratios increase theraftere with snowfall approaching 1-2"/hr from 10 PM through 4 AM. Snow tapers off abruptly to flurries with blowing snow by 7 AM. Total QPF: 9" (7-10" predicted) So sayeth me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 go figure, on the gfs clown map the 10-12" band almost perfect straddles I-95 and doesn't go north or west of it, but instead south and east. What'd I just say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The coastal popped up about where the NAM and GFS have it, though. Well i certainly would not want to be one depending on the GFS/NAM over the ECM... It also popped well BEFORE either of the models suggested.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM still beautiful hit for PHL, really gets hammered on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM still beautiful hit for PHL, really gets hammered on that run. At also appears further SW then the GFS @ 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM still beautiful hit for PHL, really gets hammered on that run. the ggem usually always follows the rgem. When you see the rgem a solid hit, the ggem will be to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ARW doesn't show much for round 1 except for extreme S PA, DE, and SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ill post the GFS clown map while awaiting GGEM visuals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So now it's SREF/REGM/GFS/GGEM vs. ..... the NAM. I think I'll sleep well tonight. Any word on the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well i certainly would not want to be one depending on the GFS/NAM over the ECM... It also popped well BEFORE either of the models suggested.... GGEM still beautiful hit for PHL, really gets hammered on that run. All these models assumed a track inside Cape Hatteras, the low has been popped off shore, winds are not out of the south or south east at Hatteras, they are out of the east and pressure falls would indicate a track east, models are great but nowcasting based on observations don't lie, a model can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well i certainly would not want to be one depending on the GFS/NAM over the ECM... It also popped well BEFORE either of the models suggested.... The GFS and NAM are looking better than the last EC run right now as far as that goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-00Z NAM COMPROMISETHE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER/STRONGER ALOFT...BUT HASMAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THEGFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER/SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEMOVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITHTHIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. WHEN COMPARING THEGUIDANCE...FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE 00Z NAM LIES EAST OFTHE REMAINDER OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANSOLUTIONS. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND PREFER ANON-00Z NAM COMPROMISE SOLUTION HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 All these models assumed a track inside Cape Hatteras, the low has been popped off shore, winds are not out of the south or south east at Hatteras, they are out of the east and pressure falls would indicate a track east, models are great but nowcasting based on observations don't lie, a model can If the winds at Hatteras go to the northeast, anyone NW of King of Prussia area are going to have problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gfs ens mean qpf is 1-1.25 i95 south and i95 west bout 25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gfs ens mean qpf is 1-1.25 i95 south and i95 west bout 25 miles That's more than I thought it'd be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gfs ens mean qpf is 1-1.25 i95 south and i95 west bout 25 miles Yep, ensembles coming in much jucier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ill post the GFS clown map while awaiting GGEM visuals Erh... I just hope in 12 hours we aren't where ABE is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If the winds at Hatteras go to the northeast, anyone NW of King of Prussia area are going to have problems fwiw it was posted earlier that the winds shifted from northeast to plain EAST, so maybe it will makes its way from the south soon...who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS ensembles are actually wetter in the ABE area then they been any prior run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 fwiw it was posted earlier that the winds shifted from northeast to plain EAST, so maybe it will makes its way from the south soon...who knows! yeah I posted that, but I don't like the pressure falls as they presently are and was hoping for a coastal forming in eastern SC, not off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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