tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gfs is a little drier, but still drops about .75-1 phl and immediate burbs...south jerz gets hit good...but the first part down there is mixing and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gfs is a little drier, but still drops about .75-1 phl and immediate burbs...south jerz gets hit good...but the first part down there is mixing and rain. It's worse for northern fringe areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Clouds are gone here in Worcester, Montgomery Cty, Pa. Temp dropped from 31 to 24 in 4 hours. Not sure it means anything for tomorrow but it shows the effect the cloud cover has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gfs is a little drier, but still drops about .75-1 phl and immediate burbs...south jerz gets hit good...but the first part down there is mixing and rain. So what do we have as an overall consensus for the 0z runs so far (GFS, NAM, RGEM)? 5-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 29.4f tons of energy... interesting seeing that area in colorado rushing down... also shown on water vapor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SILL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ABE may be dropped to winter weather advisory by morning. 2-4 more likely now. Not warning criteria. This is just based on the .40 from NAM and .33 from GFS Would like to be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 that cutoff is oh so close in NW NJ still. Argh! We have delt with these sharp cutoffs in or near our neigborhood way to many times these past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So what do we have as an overall consensus for the 0z runs so far (GFS, NAM, RGEM)? 5-8"? i'll answer this since we basically have the same backyard. SREF/REGM/GFS all are consistent with their previous runs. NAM is drier, but still 0.68". The others I don't have exact numbers for, but SREFs are about 0.75-1.00, RGEM is around 1.00, and the GFS is 0.75-1.00. So I say we're looking very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So what do we have as an overall consensus for the 0z runs so far (GFS, NAM, RGEM)? 5-8"? Sounds about right, maybe a few spots as high as 10" if things work out just right. I'd be worried about less than 5" of snow from Coatesville to Pottstown (and points northwest of there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 29.4f tons of energy... interesting seeing that area in colorado rushing down... also shown on water vapor the water vapor is sick. trough is going negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 When does arw nmm and mm5 run trying to see what they show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 can we discuss tomorrow morning's "surprise" snow? the 01z HRRR and 02z RUC agree on mod/heavy snows from 5-9am. I don't know where to access total qpf for the RUC (if it exists at all) but like I said, the HRRR drops 0.25-0.50 by 15z, which it says is 2-3" of snow (3-4" in a small part of Chesco) With temps already below freezing, this could be dangerous for tomorrow's AM commute if under-forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 can we discuss tomorrow morning's "surprise" snow? the 01z HRRR and 02z RUC agree on mod/heavy snows from 5-9am. I don't know where to access total qpf for the RUC (if it exists at all) but like I said, the HRRR drops 0.25-0.50 by 15z, which it says is 2-3" of snow (3-4" in a small part of Chesco) With temps already below freezing, this could be dangerous for tomorrow's AM commute if under-forecast... Agreed, almost every model (if not all) show some QPF by 12z and (light) additional before 18z. Could be a mess if it plays out and will catch alot of people (me included, until now) off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 can we discuss tomorrow morning's "surprise" snow? the 01z HRRR and 02z RUC agree on mod/heavy snows from 5-9am. I don't know where to access total qpf for the RUC (if it exists at all) but like I said, the HRRR drops 0.25-0.50 by 15z, which it says is 2-3" of snow (3-4" in a small part of Chesco) With temps already below freezing, this could be dangerous for tomorrow's AM commute if under-forecast... Yeah, agreed. That incoming band that is currently up to central VA and heading NE is going to make a mess of things tomorrow morning, well before the main event gets underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 When does arw nmm and mm5 run trying to see what they show http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RR actually shows 4-8" for some spots tomorrow morning through 2 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=03&fhour=07¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=03&fhour=07¶meter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false If you look at the link i posted (ruc) it shows nice band of precip above us but then if you look at the second link the accumulated precip there is basically nothing screw up on the site maybe? oh and i didn't look at temp so don't know if its snow or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So what do we have as an overall consensus for the 0z runs so far (GFS, NAM, RGEM)? 5-8"? No deff more. I think this early morning surprise is going to help. If the models are correct in saying it will be snow, that could dump a couple inches, then maybe 3-6 or a little more on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Take a look at this conveyor about to overrun Pennsyltucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Last three GFS runs 24 hour QPF ending at 12Z on Thursday... note the progressing of the axis and the cutoff slowly but surely SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 WGAL in Lancaster has northern DE and Baltimore in the 1-3 inch range, not sure where he is getting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hurricane just predicted a general 5-8 inches for the Philly area and 8-12 for Trenton and point north and east.............fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 well, the NAM and GFS are singing a similar tune for NW NJ. Convective feedback my arse NAM GFS they are almost the same. Seems around 5-7 inches from the PHLmetro area to NYC and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is going to be an absolute beauty watching unfold tomorrow guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Coastal just popped Winds at Hatteras switch from E/NE to being out of the East for the past HR, those to the NW of I-95 hope this switches to SE or S pressure falls are ominous looking for an inside Hatteras track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd be worried if I was on the NW gradient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd be worried if I was on the NW gradient... where is your NW gradient? Reading, Allentown to Sparta,NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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