Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SLP should be getting captured per upper level maps...not sure why the NAM zips the low out so quickly without deepening as rapidly. I'm guessing convective feedback as some have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like it incorporates Philly and cuts through SE Bucks. NYC folks probably freaking out on this run. i'm zoomed into the NE on SV's maps maybe it touches the airport but thats about it northern DE, .75 in only in a few miles of PA in Chester CO and Delaware CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Was not expecting this based on the SREF's that came in, I guess they weren't ETA members that moved NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ralph--I think it's convective feedback and the fact that it seems to want to shear the hell out of the low once it gets offshore: H5: But look at what the NAM does to the surface vorticit-y--it shears it apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Total through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i dont think it is an absurd solution. One thing I will say is the NAM has been all over the place with this storm the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RSM Hellz yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Philly goes nuts based on new RSM (too bad its the RSM) height of storm total precip of storm bottom right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SV snowfall maps has 4-8 for phl, more sw of the area from dc to elkton area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 one more meso question........are there one or two models that are significantly better than the others or are they all similar in their accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SV snowfall maps has 4-8 for phl, more sw of the area from dc to elkton area overall not a bad run for the imediate PHL area. Sorta blows up my way a little. I am going to go with the convective feedback issue as is being reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 one more meso question........are there one or two models that are significantly better than the others or are they all similar in their accuracy? depends on the situation, certain models handle certain types of storms and patterns better or worse. NAM has been kinda wonky this winter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I would wait for the rest of the 0z suite, before you guys throw the NAM out. Just in case. The statement is not saying there is issues, just that the balloon was forced down. And you know if the NAM showed everyone being clobbered, it wouldn't matter to you guys whether that balloon got forced down or not. If the rest or part of the 0z suite comes in like that, we know people N and W may be in trouble then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Was not expecting this based on the SREF's that came in, I guess they weren't ETA members that moved NW ARW1, NMM1, ARW5, NMM5, RSM2, RSM3, RSM5, ETA4, ETA5, ETA6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 from the NY thread about the NAM............. Yeah, it really has nothing to do with the model solution. The model is suffering from convective feedback, that's really it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 from the NY thread about the NAM............. until I see an official report from NOAA, I will brush off these assumptions about feedback issues. 0 Z runs are typically the best overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nice vv's ripping through the area at hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For you guys, from a great met that posts in our Central PA thread: JSTWX The 0z nam has busted already of sfc low position. It initialized with it in the FL panhandle, it's in EC AL This will still trend NW Plus, the NAM's data is corrupt because a balloon failed due to being forced down by icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 until I see an official report from NOAA, I will brush off these assumptions about feedback issues. 0 Z runs are typically the best overall Here you go: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0132Z WED JAN 26 2011 THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...68 CONUS...4 MEXICAN...AND 3 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... TBW/72210 - BALLOON FORCED DOWN BY ICING CONDITION...10151.APX/72634 - CODE 10159. MZT/76458 - CODE 10159. CWD CONTINUES UNTIL 26/0500Z. GOES-E RSO ONGOING UNTIL 26/0315Z. $ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here you go: how can 1 balloon kill a model run. that is just not plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 how can 1 balloon kill a model run. that is just not plausible. yeah one balloon is down so the whole model suite is done and is gonna be trashed. LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 how can 1 balloon kill a model run. that is just not plausible. it didn't...more of a coincidence that the balloon went down. It is clear convective feedback, or its right. NAM has a tendency with its extremely high resolution to have run to run inconsistencies like this where it chases high QPF which acts like a domino effect in terms of dynamics and LP placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 how can 1 balloon kill a model run. that is just not plausible. Well it wouldn't kill it, but it's obviously flawed as it has the sfc low position in the wrong position upon initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't know why everyone really cares about the ballon being down in here. People in this thread should be welcoming it. Cause if the nam is off, that means that its low on precip, and heavier qpf fields could be instore on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 heres the nam's clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the balloon was a joke in the NY thread guys. that said, don't get all bent out of shape on the NAM. the RGEM is coming in in 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 heres the nam's clown map Honestly, not bad at all. Looks like the RGEM is out to 12z on the B.W. charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 0z NAM still gives PHL 0.80" and 0.77" of that is snow. Think about where we were Saturday night, and tell me you're not happy with 6-8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 heres the 0z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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