foggy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seems to be racing up here. Interesting to see if it will hit a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just saying guys, tonight is the night to watch the meso maps. Esp the mm5 to pic up where the banding may exist. i know when the major models run but what time do some of these meso's run......hopefully before 11pm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i know when the major models run but what time do some of these meso's run......hopefully before 11pm?? No, they usually take longer because they process much more data for higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i know when the major models run but what time do some of these meso's run......hopefully before 11pm?? nam starts at 850 mm5 i believe is before 11 arw and nmm are11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 geez, with those echoes you'd think it were some remnants of a hurricane in the middle of August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 nam starts at 850 mm5 i believe is before 11 arw and nmm are11-12 do you get the mm5 sooner through sv? i usually don't see it until 12-12:30. And don't forget the AmericanWX WRF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR has the line in southern Virginia to gain intensity and dump .5"-1" hour rates tomorrow morning. Surprise bonus snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If you want to be really depressed look at some of the other in house MM5 models for example NCAR Wisconsin's is just as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If you want to be really depressed look at some of the other in house MM5 models for example NCAR Wisconsin's is just as bad Actually I lie its worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM rolling.. out to 3hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You should see the SREF in the NY thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 new SREF's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What a deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 New SREFs are just sick! 0Z should be a rather eye-opening suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 pretty far NW with that .5 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, PCPN ITSELF IS LAGGING THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS, LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF AND WRF-NMM COMPROMISE VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 00Z. THE 18Z GFS .01 ISOHYET WAS ABOUT 75 MILES TOO FAR TO THE NORTH, ITS 0.10 ISOHYET WAS VERIFYING BETTER FOR THE START OF THE MEASURABLE. WE ALSO SUSPECTED THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD CAUSE SOME MODELING PROBLEMS AND THE SFC LOW VERIFIED MUCH FARTHER NORTH (IN ALABAMA) THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD, CAN GGEM AND ECMWF VERIFYING THE BEST THERE. AS FOR THE 500MB PATTERN, THE TROF IS NOT AS SHARP AS MODELED, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 10-20M LOWER. THE RIDGING THEN TOWARD US WAS PRETTY CLOSE. THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW WAS SPOT ON. THE 850MB AND 925MB TEMP 12HR FORECASTS ARE VERIFYING ABOUT HALF A DEGREE TO DEGREE CELSIUS TOO LOW, WITH THE NAM HAVING THE LION`S SHARE OF THE COLD ERRORS. ECMWF WAS CLOSEST. IN THE SHORTER TERM, GIVEN THE LAG, WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET TO RAIN PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH LESS OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED WITH THE THINNER CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND WE`LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY RESPOND BACK UPWARD ONCE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE WEAKER TROF MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NORTHERN DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS THE TURN WE WOULD INFER WOULD BE MORE GRADUAL. THE THERMAL FIELD VERIFYING SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL GIVE US PAUSE TO SEE IF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CHANGES MUCH IN MAKING THE FINAL ADVISORY/WARNING DECISION.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 nasty looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is it just me, or does this thing look like it's going to come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 30 Convective feedback due to that flare up well offshore? seems to want to split the difference with surface low. Should be two lows, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM 24 Pls continue to post as the run progresses, thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That looked strange, but it's better here. However, what's with the dry air over the Atlantic that doesn't let this thing get wound up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 QPF field looks narrower than last run, if i am not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM's getting a little wonky again, not a good way to start the 00z suite, .75 qpf staying south of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 30 Convective feedback due to that flare up well offshore? seems to want to split the difference with surface low. Should be two lows, yes? Yeah... not sure we're going to see the low bomb off the jersey coastline if this verifies. Looks like it's quickly shuttling east between 24-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Drops the deformation band directly over PHL--hour 27 (10 PM Wednesday): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still coming down 1 AM Thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM's getting a little wonky again, not a good way to start the 00z suite, .75 qpf staying south of PHL Looks like it incorporates Philly and cuts through SE Bucks. NYC folks probably freaking out on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 QPF through 4 AM Thursday: Interior Southern NJ jackpot for QPF, but there will be some loss due to p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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