Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lets hope 12z today has . Lots of mositure gathering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hoping for 6-10 inches. Thinking (in my conservative ways), 3-6 inches. I'm sure the 12z models will lead me in one direction over the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hoping for 6-10 inches. Thinking (in my conservative ways), 3-6 inches. I'm sure the 12z models will lead me in one direction over the other. Yeah, thinking my 1"3", 2"-4" from yesterday may be a little under done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z NAM and its QPF gradient. GEEZ! Way better than 6z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Simple forecast for the Delaware Valley: 1-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z NAM and its QPF gradient. GEEZ! Way better than 6z though. Yeah, quite the gradient there. But let's see if the other 12z models follow suit, or have more precip to the northwest of the NAM's sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 on DT'S final call issued at 11:15 last night on Facebook..........Philadelphia is in the 6-12inch zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --***WATCH EXPANSION INTO NE MD...N DEL AND MUCH OF NJ EXCEPT FAR SOUTH PROBABLE AT 1115 AM PENDING NEW GFS*** PLEASE GIVE US TIME ON THIS. WE ALL SAW THE NEW 12Z NAM WITH HUGE SNOWGROWTH AND QPF AMTS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE NAMS MORE DEFINED 500MB STRUCTURE. COULD BE THUNDER SNOW WED EVE. COLLAB WITH HPC AT 8AM REGARDING MY UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NW IN NE PA AND NW NJ BUT AWAITING ALL THE MODELS BEFORE ANY POSSIBLE TRIM THERE. FOCUS "MAY" BE SHIFTING SEWD 30 MILES. MORE AT 1115 AM. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off That's essentially a post from the NWS to this thread, lol. I can understand them not wanting to simply rush in and make changes, though. Seems to make sense to wait another hour or so for the GFS and if there's confirmation, then to extend the WS Watches S/E-ward. Starting to look interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 on DT'S final call issued at 11:15 last night on Facebook..........Philadelphia is in the 6-12inch zone Where was his map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 on DT'S final call issued at 11:15 last night on Facebook..........Philadelphia is in the 6-12inch zone Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where was his map? DT updated his map for NC/VA/MD/DE at 8:45 am this morning and said he'd update later this morning for points to the N. However, you can see his contours extending into parts of NJ/PA and it's clear that most of NJ/EPA is in his 6-12" swath, while areas to the S/E of Philly in NJ are in his 3-6" swath. http://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z NAM, per WxCaster... For PNE, 1.15" all levels below freezing0.68" in 3 hours, 0.98" in 6 hours. For PHL, 1.26" all levels below freezing. Although the surface rises to 31.9 as the precip is starting. 0.75" in 3 hours, 1.02" in 6 hours. For DYL, 0.71" all levels below freezing. 0.39" in 3 hours, 0.64" in 6 hours. For NYC, 0.87" all levels below freezing while precip is falling. 0.85" in 9 hours. For DCA, 1.13" entire column above surface below freezing, surface starts out at 33.6 but falls to 32.5 when heavy precip hits. 0.86" in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z NAM, per WxCaster... Looks like a general 6-12" regionwide based on that, lets see what the other models have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --***WATCH EXPANSION INTO NE MD...N DEL AND MUCH OF NJ EXCEPT FAR SOUTH PROBABLE AT 1115 AM PENDING NEW GFS*** PLEASE GIVE US TIME ON THIS. WE ALL SAW THE NEW 12Z NAM WITH HUGE SNOWGROWTH AND QPF AMTS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE NAMS MORE DEFINED 500MB STRUCTURE. COULD BE THUNDER SNOW WED EVE. COLLAB WITH HPC AT 8AM REGARDING MY UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NW IN NE PA AND NW NJ BUT AWAITING ALL THE MODELS BEFORE ANY POSSIBLE TRIM THERE. FOCUS "MAY" BE SHIFTING SEWD 30 MILES. MORE AT 1115 AM. http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off That's essentially a post from the NWS to this thread, lol. I can understand them not wanting to simply rush in and make changes, though. Seems to make sense to wait another hour or so for the GFS and if there's confirmation, then to extend the WS Watches S/E-ward. Starting to look interesting... That's Walt Drag, the latest addition to the Mt. Holly All-Star team. Continuing on from Walt: "WHILE THERE ARE CERTAINLY STILL SOME DETAILS THAT NEED TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT...THERE IS NOW ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES RUNS TO START PUTTING TOGETHER A FRAMEWORK. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO START...THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS SLOWED DOWN SOME TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS THAT SEE THE PRECIPITATION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...BUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO WARRANT HITTING THIS TOO HARD. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL FADE BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE EVENING...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWS BEING CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY... MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE 850 MB LOW TRACK...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WOULD BE WARMING TO THE POINT WHERE SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION WOULD BECOME DIFFICULT. IN THESE AREAS...A MAINLY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH NEAR KACY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)... HEAVY RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE. THIS MAY NOT BE MENTIONED YET AS ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED. FURTHER NORTHWEST...THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM LAYER AROUND 6000 FEET...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLEET AS WELL. SO...FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE QPF NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS WOULD LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES THROUGH DUSK WEDNESDAY. THE ABOVE DOES CONTAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY...AS INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS...A BLENDED APPROACH WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE EVENT STARTS TO BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA... A COUPLE OF THINGS HAPPEN. FIRST...THE COLUMN ITSELF GETS COLDER DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING. BASED ON A BLEND APPROACH TO THE COLUMN TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS SEEING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND... NORTHERN DELAWARE...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, COULD BE THUNDER SNOW AND 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN 30 MI EITHER SIDE OF I95. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF WIND WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS GOING. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME." And that's him going conservative and not buying the 12Z NAM hook, line, and sinker. We'll see more with the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM looks like NAM, but even wetter for DC and NJ through NYC http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z RGEM continues tight gradient..... looks like 0.50"-1.00" for extreme SE PA, close to 1.00" in Jersey. Northwest of Philly, QPF drops like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM looks like NAM, but even wetter for DC and NJ through NYC http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif PHL was around 1.25" QPF on 12Z NAM, around 1" on RGEM, plus RGEM is a good bit warmer, especially aloft. NAM verbatim in PHL is 8-12" minimum, RGEM is 30-40% rain, 30-40% slop, 20% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT updated his map for NC/VA/MD/DE at 8:45 am this morning and said he'd update later this morning for points to the N. However, you can see his contours extending into parts of NJ/PA and it's clear that most of NJ/EPA is in his 6-12" swath, while areas to the S/E of Philly in NJ are in his 3-6" swath. http://www.wxrisk.com/ thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 00z thursday on the RGEM It might be safer just to be away from the heaviest QPF where it will be cold enough for most, if not all snow (northwest of the big cities). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, quite the gradient there. But let's see if the other 12z models follow suit, or have more precip to the northwest of the NAM's sharp cutoff. Was prepped for a foot up our way.... we'll see. Hey - can you send me the code you used to set up your wunderground sig? Mine just displays a link.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 By 3z-4z Thursday on the RGEM rain changes to snow across southern Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wouldnt use the RGEM for rain snow lines...just food for thought.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wouldnt use the RGEM for rain snow lines...just food for thought.. I'm just sharing the model information with everyone. People always ask, regardless of its accuracy. If you don't like what you see, ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wouldnt use the RGEM for rain snow lines...just food for thought.. Think of this: pending the 12Z ECMWF and GFS, the RGEM is the warmest of the guidance we have right now. Use that in your decision-making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's essentially a post from the NWS to this thread, lol. I can understand them not wanting to simply rush in and make changes, though. Seems to make sense to wait another hour or so for the GFS and if there's confirmation, then to extend the WS Watches S/E-ward. Starting to look interesting... I thought the exact same thing. Who else would they be directly addressing to give them time on the forecast? Certainly not your average person who catches the evening news forecast. The gradients on these storms over the last year have been ridiculous. It is a forecaster's nightmare I'm sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 PHL area clown map for the NAM http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DIX Chester, Montgomery, Bucks Co. 1-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I thought the exact same thing. Who else would they be directly addressing to give them time on the forecast? Certainly not your average person who catches the evening news forecast. The gradients on these storms over the last year have been ridiculous. It is a forecaster's nightmare I'm sure! Tony (rainshadow) and Walt (Walt Drag) are both registered members here, along with Mike Gorse (MGorse). Tony and Walt wrote the disco--Walt the part that we're talking about. Not sure if they can post at work (lol), but if they can see the board, message received. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tony (rainshadow) and Walt (Walt Drag) are both registered members here, along with Mike Gorse (MGorse). Tony and Walt wrote the disco--Walt the part that we're talking about. Not sure if they can post at work (lol), but if they can see the board, message received. Thanks guys! Message might also be aimed at local media outlets...who try to coordinate to get latest watches warnings out as they do their noontime broadcasts and afternoon radio packages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.