40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks for being objective Ray. I disagree with everyone that says this is like the 0z Euro at all. It's moving away from that solution towards the NAM/RGEM (I'm betting UK) consensus. The initial main pulse of moisture isn't really there, we wait for the CCB/comma head to roll over us. It's a great storm, it's just on the extreme side of what we've seen this year (east) I don't think it's right, but it's less robust than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 how much do you have? 3 PLUS IN NIANTIC CLOSE TO 4 SOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 12z GFS did not trend toward the 00z Euro imo. It's actually less amplified at 36 hours than it's previous two runs (06z and 00z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Crazy uncle looks solid....missing the critical 42h panel, but you can extrapolate edit: Jerry beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 how much do you have? 3 inches here....still snowing, but radar shifting it south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 UK looks like the EURO...tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice to see crazy uncle all amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think we're getting minimum widespread 6-12 but there's room for 12+. Other than NAM, that's all the guidance. Even RGEM gave that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't even know what the heck to think if the Euro holds what it had before when it comes out..NAM and GFS came a tiny bit NW, but really not the shift I would expect. We are running out of time in Maine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Zeus about to slap me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Moving towards Euro with dynamics. We'll see if the Euro hands everyone their azz in this one.... Wouldn't that be great? I'm assuming more of a "consensus" solution, with BOS ending up around .70" right now. But if the Euro holds serve it'll be tough to bet against it... I'm actually most interested in the 18z NAM to see how it shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Dear Mr. euro, I have but one request for your 12z run. come NW just a little bit. is 50 miles too much to ask? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Zeus about to slap me.... I busted on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1.5" here so far with today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Uncle says we're getting hit and hit hard. Euro won't change much...take that to the bank... It's almost identical to the 12z GFS weathafella...it probably couldn't agree more than it is. I don't think it's right, but it's less robust than 00z. thanks Ray The 12z GFS did not trend toward the 00z Euro imo. It's actually less amplified at 36 hours than it's previous two runs (06z and 00z). I agree. Crazy uncle looks solid....missing the critical 42h panel, but you can extrapolate : Jerry beat me to it. Likewise, it's very, very similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Uncle has a classic CCB look to it. That has fun written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1.5" here so far with today's system. That's probably what I'll get on tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I busted on this... Remember the old EE rule? Well I think the current version should be that when you and I agree, we lock it in. We're not that far apart at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So will I. Right now, the new GFS has me sitting on the .1/.25 line. Better get some more qpf out here for that to happen, though. Hadn't looked at the qpf map yet. That would be low end advisory if that verified. I'm thinking we get a little more though. Hopefully .25 - .50 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ... I'm actually most interested in the 18z NAM to see how it shifts. You bully! If the 18z NAM is closer to the event than the Euro, after its past few days of consistency, my world will be upended............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jerry is that 6 hour or 12 hour qpf on the 48 map? Uncle says we're getting hit and hit hard. Euro won't change much...take that to the bank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I forgot I can do 12 hour panels. I mean...this is about as good agreement as you'll ever see. So...I think it's over-reaching to say the UK looks like the Euro, unless we're saying the GFS 12z looks like the 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I forgot I can do 12 hour panels. I mean...this is about as good agreement as you'll ever see. So...I think it's over-reaching to say the UK looks like the Euro, unless we're saying the GFS 12z looks like the 0z Euro The low is more tucked in at 36 hours than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hadn't looked at the qpf map yet. That would be low end advisory if that verified. I'm thinking we get a little more though. Hopefully .25 - .50 or more. I don't think that would merit anything. Just a good wind so I wouldn't need to dust off my windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am going to have fun with this storm. Can't wait for the 12z GGEM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The low is more tucked in at 36 hours than the GFS. Yeah Ukie is definitely more amped than the 12z GFS. Has a classic look at 42h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The low is more tucked in at 36 hours than the GFS. Barely. And not to do the same red herring deal you did with me earlier, you've said the UKIE is horrendous multiple times this winter. I think the mid levels are in very good agreement. Again, it's a good hard hit for a lot of people. I am going to have fun with this storm. Can't wait for the 12z GGEM/Euro. Yep, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's almost identical to the 12z GFS weathafella...it probably couldn't agree more than it is. I'm not sure about that. qpf is way more expansive. Look at the 42 hours...you don't think that would crush western MA/Berks Monads? Remember 48 hours just gives the 6 hour qpf. I think it's much more Euroesque. Admittedly I didn't look at upper levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Burbank is going D-3 NW of Boston and 3-6 in the city. :axe: I honestly have no idea what goes through his head. How some people can call him a good met is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jerry is that 6 hour or 12 hour qpf on the 48 map? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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