Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS already looks better with the srn system at hr 12. This stucks! one thing that is particularly fun is to crack open the FRH grid (FOUS) for the NAM and set eyes on the numbers in the closing hours... But with the NAM apparently pooping the bed on this thing - not much entertainment there this time. .3 for BOS? come on - get with the program! I tell you what, if for some reason the NAM hits this than that will be 2 storms this winter that it handed the ECM it's ass. ECM inside of 60 hours is really really difficult to beat, but the NAM did pull it off with that generalized 16" er we had a couple clicks back. BTW, many of the deterministic guidance types left the door open for more potential over the weekend, perhaps a NJ Model low that clips CT-RI and southern Mass with more than 2-4. High end advisory spin off the NJ coast with V-max going under LI as in the GGEM and NOGAPS - though not very well reflected in their respective QPF layouts, the possiblility would still be there with that S/W trajectory. also, I can't seem to get past about 10 days out with much ease looking forward. There's something there - something big maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 988 JUST se of the BM 42 hours. Snowing hard now BOS-ORH and southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you look carefully at the new GFS valid 0z Wed vs. the old GFS (0z run), it clearly has trended toward the ECMWF in 2 important aspects: 1) The northern stream trough near Lake Superior has trended further north 2) The southern stream system over TX/LA has also trended substantially further north Another important point to consider: The 0Z GFS has verified much better than the NAM on the NW extent of precip. over Arkansas and on the surface map (GFS has a much more extensive area of sub-1012 mb pressures, more in line with current obs). http://climate.cod.e...c/se.wxpsfc.gif http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This will be west of 06z but probably slightly E of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS has ticked NW from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Subtle shifts past 3 runs of GEFS anomaly winds at 850 off to the ESE. Still looks like a moderate to heavy impact for LI and in general along and east of I91. Some light accumulations back to the HV south of Albany, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills too. Slight chance for moderate amts across NW CT. PWATS also way more east. A broad area of +1 to +2 from HV east across New England. System MAY not be too wet even for areas of New England where the greatest impacts will be. GFS doesn't look that bad. It's def ticked east from the earlier run, but it's developing a decent CCB. Your caveats are very valid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS ticked east, will develop a good CCB, but it's got a big dry punch off Jersey and it's scooted ENE/NE a bit/faster. I'll assume this is due to features in the N. stream kicking it out to the east by the time it reaches the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was really hoping the NAM would cave to the Euro like Jay Culter, but if the GFS saddles up to it, I'll start locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you look carefully at the new GFS valid 0z Wed vs. the old GFS (0z run), it clearly has trended toward the ECMWF in 2 important aspects: 1) The northern stream trough near Lake Superior has trended further north 2) The southern stream system over TX/LA has also trended substantially further north That's what caught my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS looks good for most of us. Still not the Euro. Curious to see what the Euro does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Gets BOS south pretty hard. Better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 6-12... AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 45 hours....BOS getting pummeled as does the entire area down to the mid cape....continuing 48. Looks like about 0.75 to Ray, 1.0 BOS and SE, kind of skimpy west of a Will to Ginx line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like jackpot is BOS down to Bob's area this run at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You're thinking much less? Much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's what caught my eye. We should probably wait for the new euro....JMHO. I expect the Euro slides towards consensus, but it's still a great storm. The GFS trended east comparing major runs, not the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 STILL POURING SNOW on the ct shore........sorry had too..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 6-12... AWT Happy to hear you feeling more confident again about that! I haven't expected big things this far NW but I'll gladly take low end warning snows up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Moving towards Euro with dynamics. We'll see if the Euro hands everyone their azz in this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like jackpot is BOS down to Bob's area this run at 48 hours. I've been monitoring this between the Euro/SREF/GFS the past 24h. Time will tell as always but I like what I see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 STILL POURING SNOW on the ct shore........sorry had too..... how much do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Moving towards Euro with dynamics. We'll see if the Euro hands everyone their azz in this one.... Not sure what you mean by this....12z GFS is more unlike the EURO than the 00z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Much more. That's what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 45 hours....BOS getting pummeled as does the entire area down to the mid cape....continuing 48. Looks like about 0.75 to Ray, 1.0 BOS and SE, kind of skimpy west of a Will to Ginx line. Yeah 0.5" line from DXR-HFD-TOL-ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 STILL POURING SNOW on the ct shore........sorry had too..... lol. yes it is! over 3 now, im hoping this next storm will surprise us down here with another 4-8 on top of the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 STILL POURING SNOW on the ct shore........sorry had too..... Still coming down at a good clip here in NE CT as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Happy to hear you feeling more confident again about that! I haven't expected big things this far NW but I'll gladly take low end warning snows up here. So will I. Right now, the new GFS has me sitting on the .1/.25 line. Better get some more qpf out here for that to happen, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I guess the 12Z GFS is better than the previous two, but still doesn't make me feel warm inside for Maine. It did come NW though with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not sure what you mean by this....12z GFS is more unlike the EURO than the 00z was. Thanks for being objective Ray. I disagree with everyone that says this is like the 0z Euro at all. It's moving away from that solution towards the NAM/RGEM (I'm betting UK) consensus. The initial main pulse of moisture isn't really there, we wait for the CCB/comma head to roll over us. It's a great storm, it's just on the extreme side of what we've seen this year (east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Uncle says we're getting hit and hit hard. Euro won't change much...take that to the bank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.