CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS already looks better with the srn system at hr 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Box has posted Winter Storm Watches. Just saw that. Still have a rain/ snow mix for my area noted for the afternoon. Hopefull any wet won't last too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NCEP diagnostic, they dont believe the NAM had any real errors: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1004 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM EVALUATION ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SOLUTION. I should mention that El Paso wasn't in the NAM package, but will be for the GFS. Same with RIW/Wyoming. EPZ/72364 - MISSING PART B.. IN FOR THE GFS. RIW/72672 - NOT AVAILABLE..IN FOR THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Globals vs mesos (except for Euro which is both..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS more robust with southern stream at 12h vs 18h at 06z edit: Scooter beat me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Either NAM is going to pull of an incredible coup or it will solidify its last years reputation as worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 since I am further south and east of you I will end up with the 24 flakes and you get 12. You're right. Really tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If GFS comes in strong....hit it and remember the stability of the Euro and its 51 ensembles' mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We can lock in 12-24 flakes per the NAM. Actually that would pretty much sum it up for our area according to some of the sref members that Bob posted earlier. (page 3) Not buying it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS already looks better with the srn system at hr 12. You are probably way ahead of me on the graphics but compared to the 0z...I see it shoving at least initially the omega SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just looking back at the ECMWF is has been nearly the same in intensity and location for the last 5 runs. That's pretty consistent. The last time and the run before that it was slightly SE, like the GFS is now, that was back on the 22nd with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 NCEP diagnostic, they dont believe the NAM had any real errors: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1004 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM EVALUATION ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SOLUTION. I should mention that El Paso wasn't in the NAM package, but will be for the GFS. Same with RIW/Wyoming. EPZ/72364 - MISSING PART B.. IN FOR THE GFS. RIW/72672 - NOT AVAILABLE..IN FOR THE GFS. We get your point, move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CBS in Boston is forecasting a dusting to 3 inches NW of Boston Hahahaha.. I feel bad the heat they will feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS does have the split developing, but it appears to be a little more snug to the coast with some of the omega early..does that get shoved east? El Paso missing from the NAM bugs me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 . . . For what it's worth, parts of Northern Jersey forecasted for 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I dont know what to believe haha. Some places have 12-16 for boston. Other places have 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CBS in Boston is forecasting a dusting to 3 inches NW of Boston Yeah, Barry was going real conservative this morning but wait and see what he says at noon after seeing the latest models. He may have been holding secret meetings with Messenger. - lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jeeze, think folks are interested in GFS, freakin NCEP server on brink of collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I dont know what to believe haha. Some places have 12-16 for boston. Other places have 3-6 This one is easy - believe the Euro and the great mets here. Consistency for the king FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A tick colder through 24, a slight shift east that may be transient. Def split in the moisture but the good stuff is just offshore Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I dont know what to believe haha. Some places have 12-16 for boston. Other places have 3-6 If Boston sees 3-6" of snow, Will can ban me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This one is easy - believe the Euro and the great mets here. Consistency for the king FTW. This is why I actually come to this forum. I barely know whats going on here, but I am just starting to learn how to read some of the models after almost 2 years of following. I mainly come here for the totals and discussion during the storm because I am a snow buff. It's cool to see all the different meteorologists perspectives on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 33 hours the low is tucked about 20 miles east of the VA coast near the NC border. H5 is neg tilting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If Boston sees 3-6" of snow, Will can ban me. I'm assuming you'll just self impose a ban if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS ticked east, will develop a good CCB, but it's got a big dry punch off Jersey and it's scooted ENE/NE a bit/faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Light snow to the NH border at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If Boston sees 3-6" of snow, Will can ban me. You're thinking much less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A tick colder through 24, a slight shift east that may be transient. Def split in the moisture but the good stuff is just offshore Jersey. Subtle shifts past 3 runs of GEFS anomaly winds at 850 off to the ESE. Still looks like a moderate to heavy impact for LI and in general along and east of I91. Some light accumulations back to the HV south of Albany, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills too. Slight chance for moderate amts across NW CT. PWATS also way more east. A broad area of +1 to +2 from HV east across New England. System MAY not be too wet even for areas of New England where the greatest impacts will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOL GFS caves to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS might be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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