hooralph Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What did the 00z Euro cough up? Did you happen to dream last night about a rich European count whisking you away to the Swiss alps where you frolicked in feet of champagne powder? That was actually the Euro, invading your dreams. It was a crushing hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM...doesnt look much different than the NAM. Split system. I'm on that bus now 99%. Its split down south, but by the time it reaches us, I'm pretty sure it wont be. We'll see what the radar looks like tomorrow night....I'm betting the WCB and CCB are congealed by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 High-end MECS bordering on HECS for us.....winter of discontent continues for Messenger; more IP and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is not going significantly se of the 00z EURO.....it's just not. I don't know, Ray. NAM has been SE of consensus for a while, and now four consecutive runs of the GFS have shifted the precip SE while the most recent NAM shifts NW slightly matching the 06z GFS better than previously. My confidence for anything more than a glancing blow is fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its split down south, but by the time it reaches us, I'm pretty sure it wont be. We'll see what the radar looks like tomorrow night....I'm betting the WCB and CCB are congealed by that point. But the split is indicative of the fact that this one can only get so far NW. Whether it's the Burbank Kicker, the GOM s/w or a combination of both, I think the Euro caves today to a similar idea...but maybe more robust who knows. We've been saying go meso all year....I'm betting the NMM/ARW, MM5 aren't much different. This is a NICE hit for a lot of us, it's just not in the same areas that have been jackpotted all winter....instead Bob, CapeCod04 and maybe even Phil and I get to share in it for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know, Ray. NAM has been SE of consensus for a while, and now four consecutive runs of the GFS have shifted the precip SE while the most recent NAM shifts NW slightly matching the 06z GFS better than previously. My confidence for anything more than a glancing blow is fairly low. I'm confident all we are seeing is en embarassment for NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did you happen to dream last night about a rich European count whisking you away to the Swiss alps where you frolicked in feet of champagne powder? That was actually the Euro, invading your dreams. It was a crushing hit. I pretty much always dream of that, only it's an Eastern European count and we go to Transylvania. But beggars cannot be choosers; your news of a crushing hit on the Euro is most welcome. Now if only one of the American models would support it... the GFS trends and split depiction have me uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think I've ever once looked at the JMA It's all about the KMA - backwards graphics and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM...doesnt look much different than the NAM. Split system. I'm on that bus now 99%. 99%, wow that's confidence! You picked up on this last night, and I'll give you credit for it. But I think you jumped the gun a bit before seeing the GFS. Personally, I think the GFS will shift north a bit from 06 as the NAM did. Expecting a compromise betweent he ECMWF and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its split down south, but by the time it reaches us, I'm pretty sure it wont be. We'll see what the radar looks like tomorrow night....I'm betting the WCB and CCB are congealed by that point. I thought the mid levels argued for that...a nice fill in, of the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 High-end MECS bordering on HECS for us.....winter of discontent continues for Messenger; more IP and rain. At the end of the winter I can look back of photos of skiing with friends in family in four states....my life doesn't revolve around my snowpack and it's been a fantastic winter due to all the snow. I'm happy whether it snows here or in Maine, or even NE Vermont. If it snows in Maine I go to Sunday River, snows in Vermont I go to Okemo or Burke. If my life consisted of measuring snow in the winter sure, this would be a bummer...but it just doesn't. I think the RGEM doesn't look bad for rain/snow for CapeCod04, I'm still probably getting wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I thought the mid levels argued for that...a nice fill in, of the ccb. It looks like BOS would get destroyed on the RGEM looking at 7h. Perhaps back to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is not going significantly se of the 00z EURO.....it's just not. I don't think significantly. It's in the back of my mind that it could tick se, but again..I'm not sure it has a huge difference in outcome for most of sne. It may very well hold steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm confident all we are seeing is en embarassment for NCEP. And the CMC? I thought the mid levels argued for that...a nice fill in, of the ccb. I don't think anyone has ever disputed this. It's split in the south, it outruns some of the support due to the first s/w complex, but the developing low and approaching m/l center wraps the entire thing up. The only question is, is the old Euro right in never allowing the escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hmmm...with everything seen...unless the Euro comes in with a crushing hit for SNE...I really think we will be doing some light shoveling Thursday morning..so disappointed in this... just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JB on his Big Dog: DCA to NYC (incl BWI, PHL) 6-12 SNE incl BOS-PVD & away from coast 12+ (mentioned 18) Well there we go. Kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I pretty much always dream of that, only it's an Eastern European count and we go to Transylvania. But beggars cannot be choosers; your news of a crushing hit on the Euro is most welcome. Now if only one of the American models would support it... the GFS trends and split depiction have me uncertain. Transylvania is actually a reasonably snowy place, for Europe. So call this storm the Carpathian Crusher if it pans out............ And if it doesn't ............the Balkan Bust, maybe? I must say that I'd like some kind of firm steer soon, since I have to prepare a lab session today that will be utterly useless if we get closed on Thursday (U. Mass. Lowell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At the end of the winter I can look back of photos of skiing with friends in family in four states....my life doesn't revolve around my snowpack and it's been a fantastic winter due to all the snow. I'm happy whether it snows here or in Maine, or even NE Vermont. If it snows in Maine I go to Sunday River, snows in Vermont I go to Okemo or Burke. If my life consisted of measuring snow in the winter sure, this would be a bummer...but it just doesn't. I think the RGEM doesn't look bad for rain/snow for CapeCod04, I'm still probably getting wet. I'm obviously speaking within the context of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And the CMC? I don't think anyone has ever disputed this. It's split in the south, it outruns some of the support due to the first s/w complex, but the developing low and approaching m/l center wraps the entire thing up. The only question is, is the old Euro right in never allowing the escape. Yea, sure....CMC, too.....it blows, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just wondering how you arrive at that conclusion. Are you a 6z NAM hugger? Hmmm...with everything seen...unless the Euro comes in with a crushing hit for SNE...I really think we will be doing some light shoveling Thursday morning..so disappointed in this... just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM giving a big FU to the western folks.. We can lock in 12-24 flakes per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
42N72W Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Box has posted Winter Storm Watches. Still calling for overal 8-12". Paraphrasing - they feel like models are in better agreement with the track, but still a lot of uncertainty with timing. 34" so far this season in Groton, Mass. Hopefully we'll be close to 4ft by storm's end, although 12+ totals seem to be less likely based on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At the end of the winter I can look back of photos of skiing with friends in family in four states....my life doesn't revolve around my snowpack and it's been a fantastic winter due to all the snow. I'm happy whether it snows here or in Maine, or even NE Vermont. If it snows in Maine I go to Sunday River, snows in Vermont I go to Okemo or Burke. If my life consisted of measuring snow in the winter sure, this would be a bummer...but it just doesn't. I think the RGEM doesn't look bad for rain/snow for CapeCod04, I'm still probably getting wet. This is sort of how I look at winter also - I'm a little disappointed when we don't get snow imby (which we have this year) but I'm more disappointed when it doesn't snow up north or in the berks. That said, I'm not feeling a lot of confidence for N. ski areas to see too much at all out of the solutions we've been seeing on the models the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I pretty much always dream of that, only it's an Eastern European count and we go to Transylvania. But beggars cannot be choosers; your news of a crushing hit on the Euro is most welcome. Now if only one of the American models would support it... the GFS trends and split depiction have me uncertain. If I interpreted their banter correctly, and weeded out the bad early readings from the amateurs, Will and a few others basically looked at it like a piece of art for the ORH to BOS corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 99%, wow that's confidence! You picked up on this last night, and I'll give you credit for it. But I think you jumped the gun a bit before seeing the GFS. Personally, I think the GFS will shift north a bit from 06 as the NAM did. Expecting a compromise betweent he ECMWF and the NAM. We're talking kind of about two different things. This is where I kind of feel I should explain it again because it's getting gradually distorted. The debate is whether or not the Euro and it's ensemble mean is right in keeping this as one big, jovial system from the SE right up to here. No interruption, just a big happy storm that delivers a big hecs. Versus the models that break out some moisture that gets booted east for a bit before the entire thing wraps back up over us. I think the latter is real, IE we see the split to the south. It's already happening, look at the explosion of moisture in the GOM right ahead of that little spin I highlighted earlier http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110125&endTime=-1&duration=6 Like I said it's not a huge deal for many, just a difference of opinion. The RGEM and NAM are great hits. Anyway, on to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If I interpreted their banter correctly, and weeded out the bad early readings from the amateurs, Will and a few others basically looked at it like a piece of art for the ORH to BOS corridor. If the EURO verified, someone between just outside of Boston and ORH would get 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have a feeling everyone...with the exception of Cape dwellars will be happy come Thursday morning...I am in Blizz and Ray's camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At the end of the winter I can look back of photos of skiing with friends in family in four states....my life doesn't revolve around my snowpack and it's been a fantastic winter due to all the snow. I'm happy whether it snows here or in Maine, or even NE Vermont. If it snows in Maine I go to Sunday River, snows in Vermont I go to Okemo or Burke. If my life consisted of measuring snow in the winter sure, this would be a bummer...but it just doesn't. I think the RGEM doesn't look bad for rain/snow for CapeCod04, I'm still probably getting wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We can lock in 12-24 flakes per the NAM. since I am further south and east of you I will end up with the 24 flakes and you get 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackymann Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CBS in Boston is forecasting a dusting to 3 inches NW of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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