NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like a 4-6" snowfall for Metro Boston. Kind of like today's event X 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Go back and look at the maps from the last 3-4 systems it's surface track and general strength at this point smoke every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well the NAM came north so far at 12z...really nothing else to conclude until the GFS comes out. As mentioned last night, can't really see how the EC and its ensembles could be really wrong. Might be slightly NW, but don't think they are off by more than 30 or 40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 In the lean years we'd be drooling for anything similar. Running out time. What say ye Dr? Oh, the drama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Go back and look at the maps from the last 3-4 systems it's surface track and general strength at this point smoke every other model. It got totally schooled by the GFS in the Boxing Day storm. NAM was too far east in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A day or two ago we were talking about incredible banding in the albany forecast area with big taint issues to n of the pike and now we are talking about less than warmning criteria snows very possible all the way down to the hartford area...THESE ARE DRASTIC CHANGES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SOUNDS LIKE A GIANT SHIFT SE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...still some time left but as of now I am thinking there is nothing much to get excited over. I hope we get buried here again and climo or no climo we have missed more than enough giant storms to where I feel the lower ct valley deserves it and its not as though there have not been multiple foot plus storms in other winters of many years ago either. I am over watching the nyc area/long is and se sne get buried one giant storm after another over the past fifteen plus years!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well the NAM came north so far at 12z...really nothing else to conclude until the GFS comes out. As mentioned last night, can't really see how the EC and its ensembles could be really wrong. Might be slightly NW, but don't think they are off by more than 30 or 40 miles. Thank you Will.. Finally a voice of reason that folks will listen to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Forgot to post I think...one of the key players in breaking up the continuity of the system is the little vm coming up from the GOM as it combines later with other energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Go back and look at the maps from the last 3-4 systems it's surface track and general strength at this point smoke every other model. You've been telling us for months how terrible the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was only looking for a NW shift and got it so no complaints. The Doc is all I'm interested in anyway. If he stays put that's all I need to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thank you Will.. Finally a voice of reason that folks will listen to I think that's the compromise. It might go se a tad, but I don't think it will have a huge outcome for most of sne...perhaps it cuts qpf on the nw fringe. By a tad I don't mean 70 miles. The NAM still has a great banding signal for many....nevermind the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just watched my son get on the bus after a 90 minute delay right smack in the heaviest snow we've had all morning. Do these districts have a clue? I think the NAM still has convection issues (maybe the seal has too much gas), I think the GFS takes big strides toward the EC/Ukie at 12z. It's all in the speed of the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think that's the compromise. It might go se a tad, but I don't think it will have a huge outcome for most of sne...perhaps it cuts qpf on the nw fringe. By a tad I don't mean 70 miles. The NAM still has a great banding signal for many....nevermind the qpf. Right all these posts about how bad the NAM is etc.. I mean the NAm is still a major snowstorm for SNE if you look at the big picture...I think folks focus on qpf wayyy too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It got totally schooled by the GFS in the Boxing Day storm. NAM was too far east in that one. And multiple times the NAM has done well. The Euro ensembles and Euro op went east of ACk 12 hours before the blizzard started when the ultimate track was the canal/plymouth which was a pretty big error for 12-18 hours (40-60 miles for a 12 hour forecast). That was the blizzard warning storm when Phil and I had a couple of flurries (j/k). It's not like any one model has been infallable. Up to this moment the Euro has no support, nothing is as aggressive as it is. We'll see how that plays out. I've been advocating leaning heavily to the Euro I'm just not sure any longer, but like you said we should see the others first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And multiple times the NAM has done well. The Euro ensembles and Euro op went east of ACk 12 hours before the blizzard started when the ultimate track was the canal/plymouth which was a pretty big error for 12-18 hours (40-60 miles for a 12 hour forecast). That was the blizzard warning storm when Phil and I had a couple of flurries (j/k). It's not like any one model has been infallable. Up to this moment the Euro has no support, nothing is as aggressive as it is. We'll see how that plays out. I've been advocating leaning heavily to the Euro I'm just not sure any longer, but like you said we should see the others first. NAM doesn't have much support being that far SE. Do you think the NAM is correct at 12z? I think reality is closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You've been telling us for months how terrible the NAM is. What does that have to do with what happens today? Does past performance dictate future performance in a totally different pattern when it has the support of a lot of other models in general? Talk about a huge red herring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh oh.... model wars again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM doesn't have much support being that far SE. Do you think the NAM is correct at 12z? I think reality is closer to the Euro. I'd go like 90/10 in favor of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Right all these posts about how bad the NAM is etc.. I mean the NAm is still a major snowstorm for SNE if you look at the big picture...I think folks focus on qpf wayyy too much Not focusing on qpf... synoptics are fundamentally different. The EURO has no hint of a double sheared system. Where is 40/70? He brought good juju last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM doesn't have much support being that far SE. Do you think the NAM is correct at 12z? I think reality is closer to the Euro. I think the idea of split moisture is going to be right. I think that is the most likely scenario right now by maybe a 60-40 split. IE, you've said you don't see this being outrun/at least that's what you said last night. You may be right, I think the split moisture is for real more than likely. I do not think the NAM handles the developing CCB as well as it should. It should probably be more robust amd more consolidated later in the game. You like the SREFs. I always get banged on for not really caring much about them. If the NAM was a big hit and the SREF's supported that...I think we'd be hearing about it. This looks pretty damn south to me. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the idea of split moisture is going to be right. I think that is the most likely scenario right now by maybe a 60-40 split. IE, you've said you don't see this being outrun/at least that's what you said last night. You may be right, I think the split moisture is for real more than likely. I do not think the NAM handles the developing CCB as well as it should. It should probably be more robust. You like the SREFs. I always get banged on for not really caring much about them. If the NAM was a big hit and the SREF's supported that...I think we'd be hearing about it. This looks pretty damn south to me. Well recall the SREFs for the 1/12 storm will too far se as well. Again, it's not apples to apples here, but it's possible they could be doing that. I'd wait to see what the GFS does imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What does that have to do with what happens today? Does past performance dictate future performance in a totally different pattern when it has the support of a lot of other models in general? Talk about a huge red herring. I know you like the JMA..Did you see the 00z run? Just like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well recall the SREFs for the 1/12 storm will too far se as well. Again, it's not apples to apples here, but it's possible they could be doing that. I'd wait to see what the GFS does imo. Oh I totally agree, just kicking the tires so to speak. I was more pointing out how unreliable the SREF's are outside of 24-30 hours. They're awesome in tight at helping to verify the ideas of other models, but they wander all over the place in the 30-72 hour range...NW SE, SE NW, N, S... I know you like the JMA..Did you see the 00z run? Just like the Euro I hate the JMA, it's almost always embarassingly over amplified. I didn't see it at 0z, to me that's a red flag for the euro. I only post it for kicks and giggles when we've got nothing else to look at....not a big fan to be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What does that have to do with what happens today? Does past performance dictate future performance in a totally different pattern when it has the support of a lot of other models in general? Talk about a huge red herring. Agreed. All options need to be allowed on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To be honest, the split moisture idea seems pretty likely right now and it seems as though this may be just a run of the mill event around the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh I totally agree, just kicking the tires so to speak. I was more pointing out how unreliable the SREF's are outside of 24-30 hours. They're awesome in tight at helping to verify the ideas of other models, but they wander all over the place in the 30-72 hour range...NW SE, SE NW, N, S... I hate the JMA, it's almost always embarassingly over amplified. I didn't see it at 0z, to me that's a red flag for the euro. I only post it for kicks and giggles when we've got nothing else to look at....not a big fan to be clear. Past history says when The Euro and JMA agree they are correct on the biggies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Past history says when The Euro and JMA agree they are correct on the biggies how about on the mundane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Past history says when The Euro and JMA agree they are correct on the biggies I don't think I've ever once looked at the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well recall the SREFs for the 1/12 storm will too far se as well. Again, it's not apples to apples here, but it's possible they could be doing that. I'd wait to see what the GFS does imo. This is not going significantly se of the 00z EURO.....it's just not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM...doesnt look much different than the NAM. Split system. I'm on that bus now 99%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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