mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM kills NJ, wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that kicking shortwave on the 12z NAM is significantly faster than the one on the 00z Euro. I thought it was going to phase with the southern stream this run....but it just ended up pushing it further off the coast on the end (compared to 00z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I like the trend..It has begun..slow but def a step towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I like the trend..It has begun..slow but def a step towards the Euro I think the euro caves this run to the idea of split moisture, then we wait for the CCB to crank. Not to the extreme probably of the NAM, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the euro caves this run to the idea of split moisture, then we wait for the CCB to crank. Not to the extreme probably of the NAM, but we'll see. the difference is not just with the split shield but with the northern stream shortwave...that will be key in getting a bigger system further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I like the trend..It has begun..slow but def a step towards the Euro the northern stream shortwave was faster this run than the 06z and the 00z...that's a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it made a huge jump NW from 06z, But with that being said, It would still have to make another one equal to that for the Northern tier folks........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the northern stream shortwave was faster this run than the 06z and the 00z...that's a bit concerning. But the end result was a nice ccb over SNE..which is what we were looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the euro caves this run to the idea of split moisture, then we wait for the CCB to crank. Not to the extreme probably of the NAM, but we'll see. I disagree, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the euro caves this run to the idea of split moisture, then we wait for the CCB to crank. Not to the extreme probably of the NAM, but we'll see. Sounds like you guys may need to double down on your bet. I'd go with a very slight compromise like 95% euro 5% nam meaning it moves like 10-20 miles south or southwest but still ends up much more consolidated and crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM giving a big FU to the western folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 But the end result was a nice ccb over SNE..which is what we were looking for whatever you have to tell yourself to sleep at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it may not be pretty...but at least the NAM came around to a slightly more reasonable solution. And hey...the good news is that it finally figured out we're getting more than a dusting in CT today...so that means it should have a good handle on the Wed-Thu system by 0z tomorrow night once the system is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I disagree, imo. I do as well, It has been steadfast for the last couple of days when all other models have wavered...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 whatever you have to tell yourself to sleep at night. This run literally blows LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the rest of the models that have the additional data stick with this solution for 12z I think anything over 6-10 will be off the table. for more of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM giving a big FU to the western folks.. To alot of folks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Remember the huge 2001 storm that kept trending north? I think this is it's evil twin. And by evil, you mean the twin that royally screws interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To alot of folks...... CC doesn't look to bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I still think we may see some sort of a compromise with models meeting near the middle. The GFS will be telling. If it holds steady, I think the euro will come se a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This model has performed poorly all year except for one storm, Why would anyone think it would start performing better now for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the difference is not just with the split shield but with the northern stream shortwave...that will be key in getting a bigger system further northwest. I think it's both to be honest as it's a foot race. We're not going to get the moisture flying up here because it gets shunted ENE by the s/w that's pointed to on this w'v as it combines with some other energy in the flow. But I do absolutely agree, this was Burbanks fear Sunday when he looked at the Euro and the northern kicker. the northern stream shortwave was faster this run than the 06z and the 00z...that's a bit concerning. Yep. But the end result was a nice ccb over SNE..which is what we were looking for Sure but it's not around long as it gets slammed out of here. No complaints, if we get more than .5" QPF nobody should complain, 1"+ is just a big bonus. I disagree, imo. I'd like to see the GFS/GGEM first, but I'm pretty certain the meso models will win out this time - again. Especially like I said if the RGEM etc stay east. All year the Euro and ENS have had an intermediate track only to adjust to the meso's inside of 36-48. If they are all east, I'd gamble it's going east...but let's see the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CC doesn't look to bad.. Those were not the ones i was reffering to but yeah, They look to do well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 But the end result was a nice ccb over SNE..which is what we were looking for No. We were looking for a EURO-like solution, 0Z of which brought a HECS to SNE in one consolidated low tracking over the BM. Yes the NAM gets us snow. It snowed this morning too. But it's fundamentally different from the EURO on synoptics. Standoff continues, and this is starting to sound like a broken record: 12Z EURO will be "the biggest EURO run of our lives". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I still think we may see some sort of a compromise with models meeting near the middle. The GFS will be telling. If it holds steady, I think the euro will come se a bit. If it goes nw even a hair, I think the solution will be closer to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I gotta think that if the GFS continues to show what it did at 0z & 6z we need to really consider the possibility that the Euro is overdoing this thing just a little. Still gonna be a nice snow event for much of the area...warning criteria shouldn't be an issue for eastern areas...probably more advisory like snows to the west. Again...that's if the American models continue to show these less amped solutions. All bets are off it the Euro is the winner. No matter what, everyone is getting some snow. Big improvement to how things looked over the weekend when I was concerned with a mostly rain event down here on the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it may not be pretty...but at least the NAM came around to a slightly more reasonable solution. And hey...the good news is that it finally figured out we're getting more than a dusting in CT today...so that means it should have a good handle on the Wed-Thu system by 0z tomorrow night once the system is underway. LOL very true. The NAM has managed to nail the general idea most of the time....but it lacks the details. The two best forecasters we have left in Boston, Burbank thought it would be light to moderate boston south as the northern stream boots it, Harv had ZERO snow in most of vermont and a big part of the CNE/NNE states. That's a little telling to me too...at least as of 6pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No. We were looking for a EURO-like solution, 0Z of which brought a HECS to SNE in one consolidated low tracking over the BM. Yes the NAM gets us snow. It snowed this morning too. But it's fundamentally different from the EURO on synoptics. Standoff continues, and this is starting to sound like a broken record: 12Z EURO will be "the biggest EURO run of our lives". People should not expect HECS all the time because the euro shows it. A general 6-12 for snow still looks good, pending the 12z model data. Stay a conservative route until guidance overwhelmingly suggests it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOL very true. The NAM has managed to nail the general idea most of the time....but it lacks the details. The two best forecasters we have left in Boston, Burbank thought it would be light to moderate boston south as the northern stream boots it, Harv had ZERO snow in most of vermont and a big part of the CNE/NNE states. That's a little telling to me too...at least as of 6pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So it looks like the GFS has trended SE with precip for 4 consecutive runs, and the NAM is barely grazing SNE. What did the 00z Euro cough up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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