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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco V


Baroclinic Zone

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SPC already has a weak low out there where Nick pointed.

Yea, we know it's there - the question is whether the NAM succeeds in its depiction of this feature taking control of the baroclinic axis further offshore the way it does - elongating and ultimately detracting from intensification rates.

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Yea, we know it's there - the question is whether the NAM succeeds in its depiction of this feature taking control of the baroclinic axis further offshore the way it does - elongating and ultimately detracting from intensification rates.

so succinctly explained!

keep the realtime analysis coming messenger, we may have a guess if the NAM caves or coups before the 0Z suite...

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Phase and a capture by upper levels would put this storm in that league. This is not melodramatic, it's last night's EURO solution 48hrs prior to go-time.

Still think there's a chance of American models showing this 0Z tonight. We need to watch what happens with that energy off the GA/FL coast as Messenger / Arnold pointing out.

Couple things going on, notice on the w/v you've got a new line firing into Mexico as yet another tiny feature moves east...it'll ride over SFL tonight. At the same time the drying coming in from the west associated with some additional energy....we'll see a split there as some moisture (squall line into Mexico/Cozomel) moves east and the area just ahead of the line will expand NNE into the SE later tonight. This is probably part of what tripped up the 18z NAM with the almost 3 system deal going on.

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Check the 18z GFS upper and mid levels - I don't think it's as bad as the QPF depiction might seem - very close to the good euro runs.

Exactly what I was saying a few pages ago... I actually think this is a step towards the EURO and a win for SNE, forget the QPF nonsense output.

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Yea, we know it's there - the question is whether the NAM succeeds in its depiction of this feature taking control of the baroclinic axis further offshore the way it does - elongating and ultimately detracting from intensification rates.

I think there's a good chance we'll see an elongated low but I also think it'll be stronger than the 996ish the NAM depicts. I think every model Euro included had a broad kidney bean type structured low tonight into the early morning. I'm not sure we'll see a ton tonight other than the mid level moisture moving out.

so succinctly explained!

keep the realtime analysis coming messenger, we may have a guess if the NAM caves or coups before the 0Z suite...

Not much to see right now.

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