Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SPC already has a weak low out there where Nick pointed. Yea, we know it's there - the question is whether the NAM succeeds in its depiction of this feature taking control of the baroclinic axis further offshore the way it does - elongating and ultimately detracting from intensification rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea, we know it's there - the question is whether the NAM succeeds in its depiction of this feature taking control of the baroclinic axis further offshore the way it does - elongating and ultimately detracting from intensification rates. so succinctly explained! keep the realtime analysis coming messenger, we may have a guess if the NAM caves or coups before the 0Z suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phase and a capture by upper levels would put this storm in that league. This is not melodramatic, it's last night's EURO solution 48hrs prior to go-time. Still think there's a chance of American models showing this 0Z tonight. We need to watch what happens with that energy off the GA/FL coast as Messenger / Arnold pointing out. Couple things going on, notice on the w/v you've got a new line firing into Mexico as yet another tiny feature moves east...it'll ride over SFL tonight. At the same time the drying coming in from the west associated with some additional energy....we'll see a split there as some moisture (squall line into Mexico/Cozomel) moves east and the area just ahead of the line will expand NNE into the SE later tonight. This is probably part of what tripped up the 18z NAM with the almost 3 system deal going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My guess is that Messenger will be nowhere to be found when I'm looking for me beer from the bet I won, last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 My guess is that Messenger will be nowhere to be found when I'm looking for me beer from the bet I won, last night. What bet was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What bet was that? He bet me a beer that the 00z EURO would bow down to the dual pricp max crap. Man, the NAM and GFS suck hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 He bet me a beer that the 00z EURO would bow down to the dual pricp max crap. Man, the NAM and GFS suck hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He bet me a beer that the 00z EURO would bow down to the dual pricp max crap. Man, the NAM and GFS suck hard. Check the 18z GFS upper and mid levels - I don't think it's as bad as the QPF depiction might seem - very close to the good euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Check the 18z GFS upper and mid levels - I don't think it's as bad as the QPF depiction might seem - very close to the good euro runs. Meh...don't even care to...I'm beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom MA wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Matt Noyes is going all in with the euro, says 12+ for most of SNE, with isolated amounts to 18! Here is his nightly webcast: http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bob someone beat you to the http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig_W8Sv-hp0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Matt Noyes just finished up a live podcast...great listening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bob someone beat you to the http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig_W8Sv-hp0 Yeah, I'm peaved. I should delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, I'm peaved. I should delete it. Go for it, he needs to know how powerful your juju is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Check the 18z GFS upper and mid levels - I don't think it's as bad as the QPF depiction might seem - very close to the good euro runs. Exactly what I was saying a few pages ago... I actually think this is a step towards the EURO and a win for SNE, forget the QPF nonsense output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He bet me a beer that the 00z EURO would bow down to the dual pricp max crap. Man, the NAM and GFS suck hard. did you define what a dual precip max is? sounds a bit wishy washy, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Matt Noyes is going all in with the euro, says 12+ for most of SNE, with isolated amounts to 18! Here is his nightly webcast: http://www.mattnoyes...ngland_weather/ AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Kulaginman should post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yea, we know it's there - the question is whether the NAM succeeds in its depiction of this feature taking control of the baroclinic axis further offshore the way it does - elongating and ultimately detracting from intensification rates. I think there's a good chance we'll see an elongated low but I also think it'll be stronger than the 996ish the NAM depicts. I think every model Euro included had a broad kidney bean type structured low tonight into the early morning. I'm not sure we'll see a ton tonight other than the mid level moisture moving out. so succinctly explained! keep the realtime analysis coming messenger, we may have a guess if the NAM caves or coups before the 0Z suite... Not much to see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 We should probably migrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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