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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco V


Baroclinic Zone

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Euro weenie maps. Same as yesterday wrt what the lines mean.

post-33-0-65043500-1295995380.jpg

Kind of clear little "gap" washing out over the eastern sections. I'm betting if you backed it up 3-6 hours it'd be more clear to our south?

messenger that qpf map may be leaving out some qpf that falls before 7pm wednesday....esp in SW areas.

Yeah, but no more than .1" per their 1 day.

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So fellow weather enthusiast, you have seen the 5 day, you have seen the ten day, you have seen some 15 days. Weenie me please but heres the gig. I have about 18 inches of snow on the ground,Goofus gives me about 3 QPF from now until the 15 are over, Euro around 1.75 in ten, GGEM around the same, temps fail to go much above freezing, I think I can break my all time personal depth record of 34 inches by my birthday Feb 10th. Shooting for it. hopefully the SWFE the Euro shows is a front end dumper ice machine, that would be the time period I would worry about. Carry on with qpf fetish.

Go Ginxy!! I'm hoping you reach la epic.

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Wow...we had those rates in the Jan 12th storm..though ratios were better

How long does Bufkit have that lasting over a period of time down there?

It's pretty quick...what would probably end up happening is you get 90% of the qpf in 6 hours.

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We'll have a good feel for whether the NAM is really going to succeed in using this MCC leaving Florida to spin up a scene stealing lead low or not by 10 or so tonight. The 18z run - for example - showed the current MCC back over the Penisula, which is becoming a slow bias in the position of that mass of convection - already that throws up red flags about the NAM solution with this -

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I'm not convined of that; how many times have we seen s stream impulses trend more robust in the last 24 hrs leading up to the event.

Phase and a capture by upper levels would put this storm in that league. This is not melodramatic, it's last night's EURO solution 48hrs prior to go-time.

Still think there's a chance of American models showing this 0Z tonight. We need to watch what happens with that energy off the GA/FL coast as Messenger / Arnold pointing out.

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We'll have a good feel for whether the NAM is really going to succeed in using this MCC leaving Florida to spin up a scene stealing lead low or not by 10 or so tonight. The 18z run - for example - showed the current MCC back over the Penisula, which is becoming a slow bias in the position of that mass of convection - already that throws up red flags about the NAM solution with this -

SPC already has a weak low out there where Nick pointed.

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JB yells FIYYAAHHH

The I-95 cities are looking at a 6-12 inch storm with the storm starting as rain then going to a heavy, thumping snow. Snow amounts over 6 inches should reach back as far west as Beckley to Johnstown to Binghamton, where GFS amounts are much lighter, then northeast to north of Eastport, Maine. The storm will probably have some 18-inch amounts over Pennsylvania west of PHL then in southern New England. Again, my track is west of Hatteras near Wallops, to near Nantucket early Thursday morning then northeast. The GFS is not only too far east, but I feel too weak; the Euro is seeing that, even a tinge farther west than last night.

This is the winter that the blind mice find the cheese.

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I'm not convined of that; how many times have we seen s stream impulses trend more robust in the last 24 hrs leading up to the event.

I highly doubted we would see anyone with 20 inches, or anything of the HECS class, until about 1AM last night :wub:

So sure, why not. It may not be probable but door is certainly open.

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