Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12+ with convection/ high ratios, click to aniamte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Clipper really looks great...this may be the story of this run! The clipper belongs to me. Just like Hurricane Wilma did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 6" and bdl will actually break their record lol. I was watching your station this morning at the gym and it was reported that the snowfall this morning put Bradley field over the record for the all time snowiest january! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For all you qpf whackos..everytime we have one of these biggies...every blessed time...there is always..always a 2nd jackpot area much farther west than ever is modelled.. Any guesses where it'll be? That's right..smack dab over GC Agreed that snowfall will verify higher than QPF suggests to the west. I'd put it a little further east than the last few storms. Most model guidance suggests a decent deformation band in the mid level wind and rh fields west of ORH. I'm not sure if this will lend itself to a secondary jackpot because the band may not be as stationary as past storms given the speed and direction of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NOGAPs just split the moisture at 18z. There's a max out by Will and into CT, but it trimmed to the east, and the NW edge got cut. I'm not going to post the maps, it's the NOGAPS. Messenger, I know you're waiting till tonight to make your final call and your wet rag is on standby ready for deployment at 9pm if need be..but what's your take on the rain/snow line and how fast it collapses SE? I hope it doesn't get stuck in the same spot it's been all year long. I'm hoping it's south of BID and MVY for the brunt of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My opinion is there's nearly 0% change of that. It will be ending in Boston by 8 at the latest. according to gfs/nam this storm is done in nyc by midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Check out the circulation around this H7 low. That's some dam good frontogensis there showing up over sne. heavy heavy subsidence over southern NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't stop in Eastern Mass till noonish according to what.. there is no accumulated qpf anywhere in southern new england from 12z to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The clipper may give this storm a run for its money! Agree Fella... that clipper has a Jan 2005 look to it... if anything close to that were to unfold, yikes....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What???? I'm assuming we get a 4-5 hour capture..Some signs of that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Messenger, I know you're waiting till tonight to make your final call and your wet rag is on standby ready for deployment at 9pm if need be..but what's your take on the rain/snow line and how fast it collapses SE? I hope it doesn't get stuck in the same spot it's been all year long. I'm hoping it's south of BID and MVY for the brunt of the event. I like the HPC QPF map for now with a very sharp cutoff in the NW. The NWS r/s line - subsequent graphic for down here...I'm not sure yet but I think it makes it up through me and then SW like a lot of other storms this winter - but I'm not sold yet. Really I'd take a blend of the 0z Euro from last night, Sunday's 12z GGEM, the offhour UK from Monday, and the JMA melded with the FIM but not the SREFs plus the NGM that I run on the droid. I think the 0z tonight puts most of the wiggle to rest..convection has fired, the storm is TEARING up florida....we will have good solutions and my prediction based on past experiences is there will be extensive talk of male genitalia by about 1045pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Best case scenario this is an 8-10 hour long storm.. starting in extreme SW SNE around 4 or 5pm and extreme NE SNE by 8 or 9pm... lasting 8-10 hours from.. so ending between midnight and 5 am across the region most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Only one SREF member gets the 0.50" contour up here and that one brings the ULL over MTP. This just isn't our storm. Enjoy SNEers. The only saving grace is that we still have a solid snowpack, haha. With around 18" on the ground, my snowpack is the same as Ginx's who is having an epic winter, and we have missed all of these events. If I had like 3" on the ground I'd be jumping off the nearest bridge... however, it still looks and feels like mid-winter with a decent snowpack so it makes missing these events easier. What I can't imagine, is what our snowpack would be IF we were getting pummeled by these east coast lows... don't even want to think about what upslope + train of synoptic storms would have given us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I like the HPC QPF map for now with a very sharp cutoff in the NW. The NWS r/s line - subsequent graphic for down here...I'm not sure yet but I think it makes it up through me and then SW like a lot of other storms this winter - but I'm not sold yet. Really I'd take a blend of the 0z Euro from last night, Sunday's 12z GGEM, the offhour UK from Monday, and the JMA melded with the FIM but not the SREFs plus the NGM that I run on the droid. I think the 0z tonight puts most of the wiggle to rest..convection has fired, the storm is TEARING up florida....we will have good solutions and my prediction based on past experiences is there will be extensive talk of male genitalia by about 1045pm. I always thought it was about hot dogs, but it shows your thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NECN says not a hugely dramatic dropoff in amounts on NW fringe, and the snow commences a bit earlier.. Afternoon forecast: Nor'easter in store for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The only saving grace is that we still have a solid snowpack, haha. With around 18" on the ground, my snowpack is the same as Ginx's who is having an epic winter, and we have missed all of these events. If I had like 3" on the ground I'd be jumping off the nearest bridge... however, it still looks and feels like mid-winter with a decent snowpack so it makes missing these events easier. What I can't imagine, is what our snowpack would be IF we were getting pummeled by these east coast lows... don't even want to think about what upslope + train of synoptic storms would have given us this winter. this is a key point. we crossed over a foot today. its very much winter outside and has been since dec 31... as far as my total snowfall goes, im hardly concerned at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you look at the 850-500 RH, it does have a tail of high RH lingering across ern mass. This probably means some lighter snows hanging around for a couple of hours anyways. The euro especially, was hinting on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My winter in a nutshell? I have 4 events over 5", 2 over a foot, and 1 over 20". Is that good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 National Weather Service in Boston just updated there snowfall potential maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 according to what.. there is no accumulated qpf anywhere in southern new england from 12z to 18z Seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I say that heavy snow all wed night for all of ct into thurs morning not ending until late morning . Many times models are to fast end the snow . There is snow falling in the morning thur around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest map from BOX has updated higher amounts here in Merr Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have had over 50 inches in a month..what in the sam hell you talkin bout Willis? Jackpotted. Jan 12. Referring to same post about she winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest map from BOX has updated higher amounts here in Merr Valley If the 0z follows suit they'll need to extend that towards the west in terms of the gold/heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 National Weather Service in Boston just updated there snowfall potential maps. Slight bump up for this area... N RI looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you look at the 850-500 RH, it does have a tail of high RH lingering across ern mass. This probably means some lighter snows hanging around for a couple of hours anyways. The euro especially, was hinting on this. Yup;;;there' the hint..slower endig than some are thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much snow would fall on saturday across sne from the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is that good or bad? Well it sure as he'll ain't the def of an sne wntr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yup;;;there' the hint..slower endig than some are thinking Did you sculpt the piles today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did you sculpt the piles today? They're neatly shaped into the image of Devil's Tower Wyoming. .... Here's the 12z remnants, the missing UK panel, and the GGEM ensembles. Did I hear the 18z swung NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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