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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco V


Baroclinic Zone

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For all you qpf whackos..everytime we have one of these biggies...every blessed time...there is always..always a 2nd jackpot area much farther west than ever is modelled.. Any guesses where it'll be?

That's right..smack dab over GC

Agreed that snowfall will verify higher than QPF suggests to the west. I'd put it a little further east than the last few storms. Most model guidance suggests a decent deformation band in the mid level wind and rh fields west of ORH. I'm not sure if this will lend itself to a secondary jackpot because the band may not be as stationary as past storms given the speed and direction of the low track.

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The NOGAPs just split the moisture at 18z. There's a max out by Will and into CT, but it trimmed to the east, and the NW edge got cut. I'm not going to post the maps, it's the NOGAPS.

Messenger, I know you're waiting till tonight to make your final call and your wet rag is on standby ready for deployment at 9pm if need be..but what's your take on the rain/snow line and how fast it collapses SE? I hope it doesn't get stuck in the same spot it's been all year long. I'm hoping it's south of BID and MVY for the brunt of the event.

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Messenger, I know you're waiting till tonight to make your final call and your wet rag is on standby ready for deployment at 9pm if need be..but what's your take on the rain/snow line and how fast it collapses SE? I hope it doesn't get stuck in the same spot it's been all year long. I'm hoping it's south of BID and MVY for the brunt of the event.

I like the HPC QPF map for now with a very sharp cutoff in the NW. The NWS r/s line - subsequent graphic for down here...I'm not sure yet but I think it makes it up through me and then SW like a lot of other storms this winter - but I'm not sold yet.

Really I'd take a blend of the 0z Euro from last night, Sunday's 12z GGEM, the offhour UK from Monday, and the JMA melded with the FIM but not the SREFs plus the NGM that I run on the droid.

:) I think the 0z tonight puts most of the wiggle to rest..convection has fired, the storm is TEARING up florida....we will have good solutions and my prediction based on past experiences is there will be extensive talk of male genitalia by about 1045pm.

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Only one SREF member gets the 0.50" contour up here and that one brings the ULL over MTP. This just isn't our storm. Enjoy SNEers.

The only saving grace is that we still have a solid snowpack, haha. With around 18" on the ground, my snowpack is the same as Ginx's who is having an epic winter, and we have missed all of these events. If I had like 3" on the ground I'd be jumping off the nearest bridge... however, it still looks and feels like mid-winter with a decent snowpack so it makes missing these events easier.

What I can't imagine, is what our snowpack would be IF we were getting pummeled by these east coast lows... don't even want to think about what upslope + train of synoptic storms would have given us this winter.

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I like the HPC QPF map for now with a very sharp cutoff in the NW. The NWS r/s line - subsequent graphic for down here...I'm not sure yet but I think it makes it up through me and then SW like a lot of other storms this winter - but I'm not sold yet.

Really I'd take a blend of the 0z Euro from last night, Sunday's 12z GGEM, the offhour UK from Monday, and the JMA melded with the FIM but not the SREFs plus the NGM that I run on the droid.

:) I think the 0z tonight puts most of the wiggle to rest..convection has fired, the storm is TEARING up florida....we will have good solutions and my prediction based on past experiences is there will be extensive talk of male genitalia by about 1045pm.

I always thought it was about hot dogs, but it shows your thinking.

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The only saving grace is that we still have a solid snowpack, haha. With around 18" on the ground, my snowpack is the same as Ginx's who is having an epic winter, and we have missed all of these events. If I had like 3" on the ground I'd be jumping off the nearest bridge... however, it still looks and feels like mid-winter with a decent snowpack so it makes missing these events easier.

What I can't imagine, is what our snowpack would be IF we were getting pummeled by these east coast lows... don't even want to think about what upslope + train of synoptic storms would have given us this winter.

this is a key point.

we crossed over a foot today. its very much winter outside and has been since dec 31...

as far as my total snowfall goes, im hardly concerned at this point in the season.

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