Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 has been all day use this http://raleighwx.ame...els/12zgfs.html NCEP has been absolutely fine here all day FWIW. The storm is still going at this point, but here's the GFS. Uber sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS doing some weird qpf things again. It cut away from BOS and ne mass and shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 looks like 18z gfs dumps most of it's ccb WEST and SOUTH of EMA in central and eastern connecticut and south and west of there, almost runs out of steam or jumps once it gets to the BM cutting off prodigious QPF for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1-2 feet.!!! Chuck em high low chuck em high chuck a weenie in DT's eye Two feet is going to be tough with the speed of the storm. We're looking at realistically a six hour period, perhaps eight, of moderate to heavy snow with light stuff an hour or so on either side. The Thursday morning commute may actually not be that bad in SW CT if the heavier stuff is out of here by 1-2 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow..this looks like that 18z GFS run from a few days ago BOOM AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wonder if there is still any NW shift time left, Id like to think so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS doing some weird qpf things again. It cut away from BOS and ne mass and shifted west. ULL looks much better this run...probably why we saw the shift W in PF but the little mins and maxes are probably just model noise. Especially when it comes to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Two feet is going to be tough with the speed of the storm. We're looking at realistically a six hour period, perhaps eight, of moderate to heavy snow with light stuff an hour or so on either side. The Thursday morning commute may actually not be that bad in SW CT if the heavier stuff is out of here by 1-2 AM. Well people said that with the Jan 12th storm too. I don't thnk it ends nearly as soon as you are thinking...In fact It's still prob snowing hard in NYC at 6:00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ULL looks much better this run...probably why we saw the shift W in PF but the little mins and maxes are probably just model noise. Especially when it comes to the GFS. Yeah I like the mid level lows which is all I care about. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ULL looks much better this run...probably why we saw the shift W in PF but the little mins and maxes are probably just model noise. Especially when it comes to the GFS. IDK, the gfs had a min a couple of weeks ago and it verified in the pioneer valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well people said that with the Jan 12th storm too. I don't thnk it ends nearly as soon as you are thinking...In fact It's still prob snowing hard in NYC at 6:00am My opinion is there's nearly 0% change of that. It will be ending in Boston by 8 at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For all you qpf whackos..everytime we have one of these biggies...every blessed time...there is always..always a 2nd jackpot area much farther west than ever is modelled.. Any guesses where it'll be? That's right..smack dab over GC "GC" being . . . The Auburn Mall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My opinion is there's nearly 0% change of that. It will be ending in Boston by 8 at the latest. Doesn't stop in Eastern Mass till noonish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 IDK, the gfs had a min a couple of weeks ago and it verified in the pioneer valley... You should probably shift your snow map then to show a max in central MA and E CT and cut back totals in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's my call. Good call, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 haah tthose vv RGEM maps are right on the CMC website how in the sam hell had i not seen those before?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not massive but decent. Less qpf for Boston vs 12Z but much better mslp and upper air so I think it would hit us pretty good. With your prodigious upper level skills are you worried about QPF given the track and depiction of the upper levels EDIT: and mid levels? Not to mention the nice shift toward a consolidated monster storm versus a dual lobed monstrocity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The weekend clipper looks like it may be pretty robust this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You should probably shift your snow map then to show a max in central MA and E CT and cut back totals in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I actually think this run is better for SNE... again, ignore the QPF subtle changes (agree with Will that this is noise), the position of mid level low is better and at the surface the low is more consolidated... I'd call this a step towards the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well people said that with the Jan 12th storm too. I don't thnk it ends nearly as soon as you are thinking...In fact It's still prob snowing hard in NYC at 6:00am What???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My opinion is there's nearly 0% change of that. It will be ending in Boston by 8 at the latest. Yeah Upton has mostly sunny for Thursday, not even a mention of snow early in the morning except eastern CT. NYC metro the main event is probably 6PM-12AM. Wonder how many bad measurements we'll see with this storm due to the general public not measuring accurately. Could lead to some inflation as was suspected in some spots in the Jan 12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With your prodigious upper level skills are you worried about QPF given the track and depiction of the upper levels? Not to mention the nice shift toward a consolidated monster storm versus a dual lobed monstrocity? I'm always worried about less than ideal qpf output but you are kind in giving me upper air skills....lol. Kind of like the snow numbers...another flag. I am not particularly worried because this is an 18Z run and the overall trend at 18Z today has been positive. We'll see what happens 0Z. For now, 6-12 would still be my call for the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't stop in Eastern Mass till noonish "we're going to miss the brunt of the storm., ff it were all one entity we were going to get mashed with snow... but instead we have this separate part that snaps in the middle...." That's bouchard to start the 5pm right now, he's really hitting the break hard. Maybe too hard but we'll see tonight. He seems to think it's already happening. I think it could snow right through til Friday. Lolli's of 20" easily attainable, especially in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Clipper really looks great...this may be the story of this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Check out the circulation around this H7 low. That's some dam good frontogensis there showing up over sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think it could snow right through til Friday. Lolli's of 20" easily attainable, especially in CT. If by Friday you mean Friday of next week, then I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its the jackpot fetish a lot of people have. If they see someone not too far from them have more, then they automatically claim they are getting screwed....even if they are comfortably above climo. this I still call this a south of the border winter because that's where the jackpot is. I am very pleased with how the winter is going here in NH too, just saying it's not "our" winter. Like I said in the "grading" thread, I'd give it a B+ so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NOGAPs just split the moisture at 18z. There's a max out by Will and into CT, but it trimmed to the east, and the NW edge got cut. I'm not going to post the maps, it's the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The clipper may give this storm a run for its money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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