dendrite Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's amazing how the Euro and it's ens. haven't budged for days and we've seen every other model play catchup..Some still not there. Some all the way there Well it cut QPF back decently up my way. I went from about 1.00" at 00z down to a bit under 0.50" this run...probably a high end advisory. It would probably average out to near a warning for my county with CON near 0.75" and > 10:1 ratios. Looks like nothing major up here barring a miracle, but any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting. Just posted. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 348 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...A NOREASTER WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... MAZ013-016>019-RIZ001>005-260500- /O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0004.110126T1700Z-110127T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0007.110126T2100Z-110127T1500Z/ WESTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...QUINCY...TAUNTON... BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE... WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL 348 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...MOST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL PICKUP IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL CAUSE UNTREATED ROADS TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SNOW FALLS MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE A TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks identical to my map away from EWB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This run of the NAM and the 12z is pretty meaningless all things considered. If the 0z suite of meso's continues to show an eastward appendage maybe there's something to look at, but either way BFD. The big thing is, look at the HPC graphic. If you lived on the NY/MA/VT border the change today IS a BFD..... the low develops off the NC coast (the eastward extension) is a result of a convective feedback loop between the Bay of Campeche feature we discussed this morning and the heavy thunderstorms ongoing. It is a trackable feature on 700mb omega over the Florida Peninsula and off the US East Coast over the next 12 hours. Whether it actually remains consolidated enough to pull a ton of moisture off the coast and lower pressures in that area is the question. I wouldn't say it's classic convective feedback because there is an antecedent disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks identical to my map Cheater! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting. Just posted. Very interesting indeed. Just those areas as warning zones. Many trains of thought for this sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 As I thought. Catch ya's in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it cut QPF back decently up my way. I went from about 1.00" at 00z down to a bit under 0.50" this run...probably a high end advisory. It would probably average out to near a warning for my county with CON near 0.75" and > 10:1 ratios. Looks like nothing major up here barring a miracle, but any snow is good snow. true story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BOX: 8-12 BOS-TAN-OWD-PVD 6-10 near NW burbs 4-8 Essex over to S NH 6-10 with some taint SE MA near the coast 4-8 large areas of the Cape. 1-3 ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They probably would add BOS under WSW for 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My numbers above are out of synch with the digital snow total map. Either way, we slowly climb towards a huge winter ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 one thing to consider with the EURO. it rarely seems to overdo QPF. maybe it will be wrong in this event but it has a pretty large swath of >1". that might raise the bust potential to the high side inside of that BOS-ORH-PVD-TAN region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It needs to be just a shade north and capture the sfc low for 6h to think about Jan 12 totals...otherwise it will be an 8 hour snow bomb with pretty heavy amounts but probably not many over 12-15. Recall though that wasn't thought to happen on jan 12th either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well BDL finished with 1.9'' of snow today bringing their seasonal total up to 59.1''...so all they need is 10.9'' to make this a top 10 winter. If we just see a slight shift west with track that is very doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it cut QPF back decently up my way. I went from about 1.00" at 00z down to a bit under 0.50" this run...probably a high end advisory. It would probably average out to near a warning for my county with CON near 0.75" and > 10:1 ratios. Looks like nothing major up here barring a miracle, but any snow is good snow. That's where the disputes start. If you live in NW MA, SVT, up by you...it was a big change. A 30-50% drop in coverage is big...and likewise the temp change just to my NW was pretty big. A day or so ago we were worried about mixing up to Boston on this model. Looks identical to my map away from EWB I like that general theme, I think they've hit the max areas very well. the low develops off the NC coast (the eastward extension) is a result of a convective feedback loop between the Bay of Campeche feature we discussed this morning and the heavy thunderstorms ongoing. It is a trackable feature on 700mb omega over the Florida Peninsula and off the US East Coast over the next 12 hours. Whether it actually remains consolidated enough to pull a ton of moisture off the coast and lower pressures in that area is the question. I wouldn't say it's classic convective feedback because there is an antecedent disturbance. Thanks that's my feeling exactly in the bold. Multiple times this winter I've heard the term thrown around, sometimes by me. In many cases "something" still ended up being there...and many times over the years I remember southern streamers having moisture robbed east by miniscule disturbances riding off the coast. IE, sometimes the convective issues result in not enough moisture being thrown west, sometimes it's real and robs moisture to be thrown west. We'll see how this one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Recall though that wasn't thought to happen on jan 12th either No it wasn't but we were starting from a higher point WRT dynamics. We already knew it would be a 12/9/05 precip shield and said that if it even stalled for 6h then it would be huge. This one certainly has some good potential, but we need a slightly closer tucked track of 5h to start entertaining amounts over 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 one thing to consider with the EURO. it rarely seems to overdo QPF. maybe it will be wrong in this event but it has a pretty large swath of >1". that might raise the bust potential to the high side inside of that BOS-ORH-PVD-TAN region Why didn't you include HFD in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 one thing to consider with the EURO. it rarely seems to overdo QPF. maybe it will be wrong in this event but it has a pretty large swath of >1". that might raise the bust potential to the high side inside of that BOS-ORH-PVD-TAN region Also can consider that they set expectations at a certain level and allow totals to increase should this trend to a more favorable track or more juicy output. I agree with others that the met offices seem to want to avoid over-doing amounts since it seems more difficult to call a cancel after a storm is forecasted as being a huge hit. But rather they forecast strong enough that an increase to a higher amount is reasonable. Still think that we see a pretty wide area 10-15" and that it'll be centered a bit north of where BOX is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Matt Noyes just said he's not changing his snowfall map at all with max of a foot in southern new england, he said the model depictions were so bad that they drew how they thought how the storm would go manually. Pete B on Ch 7 has a map very similar to Bostonwx except a max of 9-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BDL is also only 0.4'' away from making it the snowiest month on record...this should easily be broken with this storm. This is just incredible. Hoping to see the slight NW shift with the 18z GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This system will feel a lot like last Friday's when all is said and done. Probably rank as the #4 or #5 system in terms of impact/size for the entire winter, getting beat out quite considerably by 12/26 and 1/12 and again be tied with 1/21 and a few others TBD. Obviously a great winter if you can rank a ~6-10" storm as #4 or #5 for the winter...probably the best or #2 event for more than 50% of winters, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 box raises wswarnings only for se areas, not a good sign for those of us to the west and there is little to no wiggle room at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My gut tells me Harv stays the course and goes 6-12....or maybe write 6-12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Strange they didn't extend the warning to other locations, if this is indeed their criteria: "A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD." ... it (their selection of warnings) clashes with their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it cut QPF back decently up my way. I went from about 1.00" at 00z down to a bit under 0.50" this run...probably a high end advisory. It would probably average out to near a warning for my county with CON near 0.75" and > 10:1 ratios. Looks like nothing major up here barring a miracle, but any snow is good snnow. That's my thinking..ens were a bit higher tho? We can hope for a heavy band that sets up inland or an overnight na trend...certainlynot impossible...then onto saturday fun and a bobbie nxt week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 box raises wswarnings only for se areas, not a good sign for those of us to the west and there is little to no wiggle room at this point Why is that not a good sign? Confidence is heavily increasing that those areas indeed will see warning criteria snowfall, just b/c they didn't hoist warnings for the rest of the region doesn't mean it's bad...just waiting for confidence to increase to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z RGEM looks pretty amazing at 36h over a good portion of SNE....MLs don't get a whole lot better Here the omega plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 box raises wswarnings only for se areas, not a good sign for those of us to the west and there is little to no wiggle room at this point There is wiggle room right through 6z tomorrow imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Strange they didn't extend the warning to other locations, if this is indeed their criteria: "A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD." ... it (their selection of warnings) clashes with their forecast. I think they are waiting till the 0Z guidance comes in knowing the watch will do the deed with the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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